Remington Research conducted the first public poll in this Orange/Los Angeles County congressional district since veteran Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/Fullerton) announced his retirement. According to RR (1/10-11; 761 CA-39 likely voters), former state Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who Mr. Royce has already endorsed, would lead a pair of Democrats in prospective general election pairings. Against lottery winner Gil Cisneros, Ms. Kim would lead 41-38%. Paired with physician Mai Khanh Tran, the Republican advantage would be a more substantial 42-33%.
First, however, the finalists all have to battle a large field and place at least second in the June 5th qualifying election. Other Republicans running are former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar) and Orange County Supervisor and former Fullerton Mayor Shawn Nelson. Other Democrats include businessman Andy Thoburn, education consultant Phil Janowicz, and attorney and former US Commerce Department official Sam Jammal. --Jim Ellis The central Pennsylvania 9th District, now open with the retirement of House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee chairman Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg/Altoona), drew its second major candidate. State House Majority Leader Dave Reed (R-Indiana) yesterday announced his candidacy, joining state Sen. John Eichelberger (R-Hollidaysburg), and three others. But, the big question is will this district be drastically re-drawn considering the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court’s directive to re-draw the congressional map because of political gerrymandering.
--Jim Ellis Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is the latest Democrat reportedly considering entering the crowded primary to battle to succeed retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami). After leaving the Clinton Administration, Ms. Shalala became president of the University of Miami, a position from which she retired in 2015. Already eight Democrats are vying for the party nomination, including two state legislators and two local South Florida officials. Ms. Shalala would celebrate her 78th birthday soon after being sworn into office should she run and be successful in winning the seat.
--Jim Ellis The state Supreme Court yesterday struck down the Pennsylvania congressional lines as a political gerrymander under the Constitution of Pennsylvania by a 4-3 vote. They have ordered the map re-drawn and enacted by February 15th. The Republican legislature is now tasked with re-crafting the congressional delegation map, which will be subject to Gov. Tom Wolf’s (D) veto. Therefore, it is a certainty that the map will undergo major changes that will favor the Democrats.
The current delegation split is 13R-5D. The three open seats currently represented by Reps. Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg/Altoona), Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton), and Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) give the GOP map-drawers a major opportunity to concede seats using the territory within these districts and surrounding regions as the basis for the mandated changes. --Jim Ellis Former state Senate President Charlie Huggins (R) announced that he is ending his gubernatorial campaign mainly due to poor fundraising. The decision leaves former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy and state Rep. and former House Speaker Mike Chenault (R-Nikiski), and businessman and Anchorage Economic Development Corporation founder Scott Hawkins as the three major Republican candidates.
The question remains about whether former US Sen. Mark Begich (D) will enter the race, but so far he keeps quiet about any future political plans including the option of launching a gubernatorial campaign. Assuming Mr. Begich does not run, then Gov. Bill Walker, the nation’s only Independent state chief executive, will again likely become the de facto Democratic nominee and be favored for re-election. If Begich decides to run, then we could see a free-for-all campaign. --Jim Ellis A new DFM Research Democratic poll conducted for the Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation union (1/18-19; 384 PA-18 registered voters) finds Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Canonsburg) leading Democratic attorney Conor Lamb by only a three-point margin, 41-38%. The poll appears correctly geographically dispersed within the four-county congressional district, but the partisan ratio is unreported.
The close margin is inconsistent with other recent internal Republican polls, which show Mr. Saccone holding leads of nine and ten points. The poll’s purpose was to survey the public about freight train crew size, so the political questions were not the focal point. How that may factor into the accuracy of the congressional ballot test is unclear. The special election to replace resigned Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh) is March 13th. --Jim Ellis San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar (R-Encinitas) will reportedly enter the open 49th District seat from which Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista) is retiring. Ms. Gaspar became the first challenger to win a Supervisor’s seat in this county for the past 32 years. Her 3rd Supervisorial District captures all of the San Diego County coastal regions consistent with the 49th CD. Prior to her election to county office, Ms. Gaspar was both the mayor and a city councilmember for the city of Encinitas.
Supervisorial Districts in San Diego County cover more than 660,000 people, so they are only slightly smaller than a congressional district. Therefore, Ms. Gaspar figures to become a major candidate. In now an open seat contest, the race has attracted five Republicans, four Democrats, including 2016 Democratic general election participant Doug Applegate who attracted 49.7% of the vote, and one Independent all vying for one of the two finishing positions that qualifies a candidate for advancement into the general election. The race is rated a toss-up. --Jim Ellis For a state with just four congressional districts, the Iowa Governor’s race is attracting major financial resources according to the latest state financial disclosure report. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has so far raised $3.7 million and carries $4.1 million as cash-on-hand. Her Republican primary opponent, Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett showed income of $844,000 with cash reserves of $579,000.
Big money is flowing on the Democratic side, both in terms of fundraising and candidate contributions with three candidates already exceeding the $1 million mark for the June primary. Businessman Fred Hubbell raised $2.9 million and has $1.2 million in the bank. Service Employees International Union official Cathy Glasson also cracked the $1 million barrier, bringing in $1.3 million, and now has $729,000 in her campaign account. State Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) also broke into seven figures, raising $1.1 million with $481,000 remaining. The early activity suggests that we will see a competitive general election after a hotly contested Democratic primary is decided. --Jim Ellis After seeing a hung jury result in Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D) bribery trial, the US Justice Department announced that they will still push forward with further court proceedings. The timing of this latest legal battle is unclear, but it would almost assuredly not come before the Democratic primary on June 5th. It could, however, be scheduled before the general election, and in the middle of prime campaign time. Speculation is building that the Senator might be forced to resign, but that seems much less likely since he’s already come close to beating the charges. In the meantime, wealthy Republican pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin is moving closer toward entering the race giving the GOP what appears to be a viable candidacy.
The latest legal development brings a new twist to what was thought to be a safe post-trial re-election run for Sen. Menendez. --Jim Ellis Over the weekend it was reported that former US Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) may be looking toward making another political comeback. Mr. Grayson was first elected to the House in 2008 but lost his seat in 2010 when now 11th District Congressman Dan Webster (R-Clermont) defeated him in the Republican wave election. Grayson would return to the House in 2012 when Florida gained two seats in reapportionment and one of them was drawn as a new Orlando Democratic district.
In 2016, the acerbic Congressman decided to run for what looked to be an open Senate seat. Incumbent Marco Rubio (R), when running for President, indicated that he would not seek re-election regardless of the national election outcome, but the Republican leadership then persuaded him to change his mind. In the meantime, Grayson would fall to fellow Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter) in the statewide Democratic primary. State Sen. Darren Soto (D-Orlando) replaced Mr. Grayson in the House, despite the former man’s new wife, Dena Grayson, running for the vacated House district. Now, Mr. Grayson may challenge Rep. Soto. When asked how he would fare as a challenger, Grayson answered that it is “he (Rep. Soto) who would be challenging me.” --Jim Ellis |
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