Alabama: Trending Moore

Two new surveys were released over the weekend that produced split results.  The Washington Post/Schnar poll (11/27-30; 1,304 adults; 1,110 self-identified AL registered voters; 739 self-identified AL likely voters) reverses the trend of the previous six polls and finds Democratic former US Attorney Doug Jones leading former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R), 50-47%.  But a further examination of the respondent universe suggests that this survey is likely within the same realm as the others.  The Post/Schnar poll undercuts the number of Republicans in the sampling universe, thus likely providing Mr. Jones with a false margin.
 
Conversely, the CBS News/YouGov data (11/28-12/1; 1,067 AL registered voters, 68% of whom say they will “definitely” vote in the special Senate election) finds Moore leading 49-43%, which is more in line with the six polls published before the Post/Schnar effort.  In this survey, the party division is 51R-36D, and better aligned with Alabama voting history.  This state does not register voters by political party, so determining partisan division is relegated to estimation.  The special election is scheduled for December 12th, and though Jones has a wide lead in fundraising and airing ads, it is widely presumed that the Republican former judge has legitimately rebounded to maintain a small advantage.

--Jim Ellis