Alabama: Three Post-Scandal Polls

A trio of pollsters went into the field immediately after the Roy Moore sexual impropriety scandal broke and they all now show a very tight special election campaign.  Opinion Savvy, Gravis Marketing, and JMC Analytics & Polling conducted their surveys during the 11/9-11 period, with Opinion Savvy implementing their entire questioning phase on November 10th.  The sampling universes ranged from a low of 478 likely voters (Gravis) to 575 registered voters (JMC). 
 
Gravis sees embattled former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Moore hanging onto a 48-46% lead; OS projects a 46-46% tie, and JMC finds Democrat Doug Jones leading 46-42% (48-44% when leaners to both candidates are added).  The latter poll contains a significant skew of female voters, thus the Jones advantage in the JMC result is likely inflated.  These margins reflect declining support for the former state Supreme Court Chief Justice, who been leading in the low double-digit range in most polling. 
 
Though the numbers are much lower for Moore, they are not devastating considering all of his negative publicity when these surveys were conducted.  With a month remaining in this campaign, much more will happen to determine the final outcome.

--Jim Ellis