Alabama: Strange Rebounding

Last week, the survey research firms of JMC Analytics & Polling and Opinion Savvy produced data that gave former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore huge 19 and 18 percentage point leads, respectively, as he battles appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the special Alabama Senate Republican run-off election scheduled for September 26th.  This week, two other firms report very different polling results. 
 
As we stated earlier, Voter Surveys & Consulting found a much tighter 45-41% support split, but again with Moore leading.  Yesterday, Harper Polling (8/24-26; 800 AL likely GOP run-off voters) sees the race getting even closer.  According to this latest study, the Moore lead is reduced to 47-45%.  Considering we have such a wide variance between the two sets of polls, methodology is likely more responsible for the difference than a massive sway in respondent opinion.  For now, it is safer to assume, however, that the closer data is more accurate, and that the race is evolving into a toss-up.

--Jim Ellis