Alabama: New Data

The Senate Leadership Fund, with close ties to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, sponsored an Axis Research poll (10/24-26; 503 AL likely special election voters) that sees former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) expanding his lead over ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D).  According to the Axis results, Moore’s advantage is 56-39%.  But, the researchers were concentrating on modeling conservative voters, so the numbers likely contain a Republican skew.  They report that 43% of the respondents are Republicans, 27% Democrats, with 19% considering themselves Independent. 
 
The respondents were screened for strong previous voter participation, but even in a strong Republican state like Alabama, the partisan division within this polling universe is likely too favorable for the GOP.   Possibly the most interesting finding is the certain vote for each candidate.  Of those saying they support Judge Moore, over 87% say they will not change their mind before the December 12th special election date.  For Mr. Jones, the same percentage, 87 of his 39% total support factor, also say they are sure to vote for him next month.

--Jim Ellis