Alabama: More Polling

Yesterday, we covered the new RHH elections blog poll (7/31-8/3; 426 AL Republican likely primary voters; 369 via Interactive Voice Response system; 57 from online questionnaire) that found appointed Sen. Luther Strange falling behind former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore but safely securing the second run-off position.  Today, we see a new survey from a more established pollster, JMC Analytics (8/5-6; 500 AL likely GOP special election primary voters), which suggests that the third place finisher, US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), is in a stronger position.  According to JMC, Judge Moore scores 30% with Sen. Strange posting 22%.  Instead of having an eleven-point margin over Brooks, as the RHH survey portends, the JMC data finds the battle for second place back to within the margin of polling error: 22 (Strange) - 19% (Brooks). 
 
Again we see confirming data that the August 15th primary is a battle among three candidates for two positions in the impending September 26th run-off election.  If the JMC information is accurate, the last full campaign week will be an interesting one and is subject to a late surge from one of the candidates desperate for political survival.

--Jim Ellis