Alabama: First General Poll

The Opinion Savvy research firm released the first special general election survey for the Alabama Senate election, and it forecasts a close race.  The poll (9/27-28; 590 likely and possible special general election voters), taken just after former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore won the party nomination on September 26th, finds the new Republican nominee leading former US Attorney Doug Jones (D), 50-45%.  Among the 514 respondents who say they will “definitely” vote, Moore does a bit better.  His lead increases to 51-44% within this subset.  For those saying they are only “considering” voting, Mr. Jones gains.  Within this segment, the gap closes to a 46-45% Moore edge. 
 
While almost all of the pre-primary polls seemed to over-sample evangelicals, this survey looks to have the religious preference in the right range.  Here, 55.6% of respondents describe themselves as evangelical.  With a 54.1% female complexion, however, the sampling universe is a bit skewed in that direction, thus making Jones the beneficiary.  African Americans, however, are slightly below their statewide average in this sample (24.0% compared to the statewide population of 26.8%), which benefits Judge Moore.  The special general election is December 12th.

--Jim Ellis