AL-2: Rep. Roby With Upper Hand

​The pre-runoff financial disclosure reports were released into the public domain for the July 17th Alabama secondary congressional nomination election between four-term Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) and former US Rep. Bobby Bright.  Financially, through June 27, Ms. Roby had raised over $2.1 million and still had $730,000 cash-on-hand.  This compares to Mr. Bright’s $407,000 in total receipts, with all but $97,000 of that figure coming in the form of a candidate loan. 
 
The ex-Congressman served one term, losing to Ms. Roby in 2010 after originally winning the Montgomery anchored district in 2008.  At the time, Mr. Bright was a Democrat but changed parties for purposes of running in the current election.
 
Normally, when an incumbent is forced to a run-off election, the challenger often wins because a majority of voters already chose another candidate in the primary election.  Though Rep. Roby only scored 39% of the vote on June 5th, a dangerously low figure for any incumbent, she actually appears to be in good position for the run-off for several reasons. 
 
In addition to her financial advantage, President Trump is now endorsing her – opposition to the President during the 2016 campaign became a significant problem for Ms. Roby – and the ad focus is squarely on Mr. Bright’s history as a Democrat and his previous support for then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Therefore, the race appears to be turning decidedly in Rep. Roby’s favor as the two candidates turn toward next Tuesday’s finish line.