California: Schiff Opens with Wide Advantage: While the open California Senate jungle primary ended with Republican Steve Garvey finishing just 3,518 votes behind US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) from more than 7.3 million ballots cast and placing first in the companion special election to fill the balance of the current term, the general election projection appears much different. The new Public Policy Institute of California survey (3/19-25; 1,089 CA likely voters; online) finds Rep. Schiff opening a large 61-37% preference spread over Mr. Garvey, a retired perennial baseball All-Star.
The results are both not surprising and consistent with California vote history. The Dave’s Redistricting App data organization, for example, calculates a strongly Democratic partisan lean for the Golden State, 63.0D-35.1R. The last Republican to win a major California statewide race was Pete Wilson in the Governor’s race back in 1994. Florida: Sen. Scott Leads in New Re-Election Survey: The latest Florida statewide survey from Emerson College (4/9-10; 1,000 FL registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), while posting former President Donald Trump to a 51-38% lead over President Biden, sees the Senate race slightly closer. In the latter ballot test, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R), seeking a second term after serving two four-year stints as Governor, posts a 45-38% edge over former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D). While the Scott advantage might be closer than many would have believed, the strong Republican trends present in the state just since Sen. Scott was elected six years ago, will help him expand the preference margin. For her part, Ms. Mucarsel Powell should be regarded as a weak candidate. While she won her South Florida congressional seat in the Democratic wave year of 2018, she lost it two years later to current Congressman Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) by a 52-48% margin in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App data organization calculated a 51.5D – 47.1R partisan lean. Minnesota: Sen. Klobuchar Up Comfortably: While the Survey USA poll that we covered yesterday showed President Biden edging Donald Trump by only a 44-42% spread, the Senate race looks much different. The poll (conducted for ABC affiliate KSTP-TV Channel 5 in St. Paul (4/3-7; 608 MN likely general election voters; online) posts Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) to a comfortable 51-34% advantage over banker and retired Navy officer Joe Fraser (R). While the presidential race may become competitive in Minnesota, it is unlikely that the Senate race will follow suit. Sen. Klobuchar will easily win a fourth term against weak GOP opposition. Comments are closed.
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