Arizona: First Three Way Poll Shows Sinema Faltering: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) released the results of his internal Public Policy Polling survey (12/19-20; 678 AZ registered voters) that tested himself, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake if she were to run for the Senate. According to the PPP results, the situation is poor for Sen. Sinema. The ballot test breaks 42-41-13% in favor of Ms. Lake. Rep. Gallego would take 41%. Sen. Sinema pulls only 13% support from the at-large sampling universe with an upside-down favorability index of 31:47% positive to negative.
While it appears that she would lose a general election at this point in time, Sen. Sinema’s situation is not as dire as this poll seemingly suggests. In a race where the two major party candidates almost equally divide the non-Sinema vote, as this early poll result projects, the incumbent would have to reach only the low 30s in support to win a plurality election as opposed to obtaining a majority. Therefore, Sen. Sinema increasing her support by a factor of 20 points in two years is certainly attainable. Utah: Sen. Romney Considers Second Term: Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) says he is considering seeking re-election in 2024 and will make a decision in the early part of next year. Considering his poor standing within the Republican base, many believe the Senator, who will be 77 years old at the time of the next election, will retire. Should he run again, however, Sen. Romney would almost assuredly have to access the primary election ballot through the petition process. Under the Utah election system, candidates can advance through the party convention or petition signatures. Due to his alienating the powerful conservative Utah GOP wing with his more centrist voting record, it is probable that Sen. Romney could not come through a party convention. Should he access the ballot through petition, it is virtually assured that he would face primary competition from at least one GOP candidate, and possibly two, whom the convention delegates would advance into a June 2024 nomination election. Should Sen. Romney move forward with a re-election campaign, we can expect a very interesting Utah Republican 2024 party convention and primary nomination cycle. Comments are closed.
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