California: Garvey Moves Into Second in New Poll: Survey USA went into the field to test the California electorate in anticipation of the state’s open US Senate primary on Super Tuesday, March 5th. As you may remember, California uses an all-party top two primary system that serves as a qualifying election for the November vote. The top two finishers on March 5th, regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained, will advance to the general election. All other candidates will be eliminated from further competition.
This means that at least one Democratic US House member will not advance. The huge field of 53 individuals who filed with the Secretary of State will be winnowed down (the California SoS is targeting December 28th to have an official list of qualified candidates in all elections) but will still feature a very large ballot. Three of the contenders who are sure to qualify as Senate candidates are US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). Each is attempting to qualify for the general election but at least one will fail. Because the bulk of votes will likely split among these three, and polling suggests relatively evenly, it is conceivable that a well-known Republican such as baseball great Steve Garvey (R), could capture the second qualifying position in coalescing the minority Republican vote, thus eliminating two of the three House members. The Survey USA poll (12/7-10; 676 CA registered voters; 590 likely voters; online) sees Rep. Schiff leading the large ballot, as he has in most other polls, with 22%. S-USA detects the scenario described above in that Mr. Garvey is second with 15%. Reps. Porter and Lee follow with 12% apiece. Democrats will be heavy favorites to hold the open seat that appointed Senator Laphonza Butler (D) is leaving after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), but Mr. Garvey sneaking into second place from the jungle primary now appears as a distinct possibility. Ohio: New Survey Finds LaRose Opening GOP Lead: Survey USA released their latest Ohio US Senate poll (released 12/18; no methodology available) and finds a much different result than other recent polls. The last two studies released earlier in the month, from McLaughlin & Associates and Fabrizio Lee & Associates, found businessman Bernie Moreno posting very small (one to two points) Republican primary leads over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). The S-USA data sees a wholly different result. Here, Secretary LaRose maintains a large 33-18-12% advantage over Sen. Dolan and Mr. Moreno. We will need more data to gain a better picture of this primary race as the candidates move through January and February to the nomination election on March 19th. The Ohio primary is plurality based, meaning the candidate with the most votes, regardless of percentage attained, will win the nomination in this one election. The eventual nominee will then challenge three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important Senate general elections in the 2024 voting cycle. Comments are closed.
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