CA-27: Rep. Garcia Trails in Early Poll: Impact Research, polling for the George Whitesides campaign, released the results of their mid-April poll (4/12-18; 650 CA-27 registered voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanic voters) that finds their client leading three-term California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 47-44% count. In the jungle primary, however, Rep. Garcia topped Mr. Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and ex-CEO for Virgin Atlantic Airlines, 55-33%, from a turnout of 135,161 primary voters.
This will clearly be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Rep. Garcia represents one of four California Republican held districts that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a Democratic seat. In this instance, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission made the northern Los Angeles County district even more Democratic, stretching the seat to a D+8 rating. President Biden carried this district configuration with a 55-43% victory margin, so Rep. Garcia has his work cut out for him to win here again in November. Louisiana: Judges Order New Cong Map by June 3: The three judge federal panel that invalidated the new Louisiana congressional map is now sending the plan back to the state legislature with a deadline of June 3rd to redraw the map. This time, there is no judicial requirement to specifically add a new majority minority district. In response, Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R) is filing an appeal of the original ruling with the US Supreme Court and criticized the panel for not adhering to her May 15th deadline for producing a 2024 map. She said the state needs such a time frame to adequately administer the election. While the Louisiana redistricting situation will soon come to a head, it is difficult to see exactly how the map’s final version will develop. VA-5: Rep. Good Well Behind in New Primary Poll: A just released Battleground Connect poll (4/30-5/2; 504 VA-5 likely voters; live interview) finds two-term Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) falling well behind his Republican primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot). According to the survey data, Sen. McGuire would lead Congressman Good by a double digit margin, 45-31%, as the two battle for position in anticipation of the June 18th Old Dominion primary. The McGuire effort, which has been principally hitting Rep. Good over his lack of support for former President Donald Trump, is being supplemented by heavy outside spending much of which is coming from organizations affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who Rep. Good was instrumental in deposing. Additionally, this is the first time Rep. Good has faced a primary election. Previously, he was nominated through a district convention, which is the way he denied former Rep. Denver Riggleman renomination in 2020. Comments are closed.
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