AK-AL: New Polling Favorable for Rep. Peltola: Once again, Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting system may re-elect at-large Democratic US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) even though more voters select a Republican candidate. Under the state’s primary system, four candidates advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support in the November vote, Ranked Choice Voting takes effect.
The Remington Research Group conducted a new poll for Republican candidate Nick Begich III (12/11-14; 672 AK likely primary voters; live interview) and the ballot test finds Rep. Peltola attracting 42% support. Mr. Begich follows in second place with 28%. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) is third with 9%, while Libertarian Chris Bye, running on the No Labels ballot line, would secure the fourth position with 7% of the prospective vote. If this were the actual vote totals, RCV would begin with Bye being eliminated and his second choice votes added to the aggregate. Rep. Peltola has been successful in the Ranked Choice process in both of her elections. In this case, the RCV process would begin because no candidate reached the majority support level. Census Estimates: Early Reapportionment Projections for 2030: The Census Bureau released its 2023 population estimates and from those data extrapolated congressional seat gain and loss estimates for the next census, which is seven years away. Obviously, much can change in that period, but the projections suggest serious population movement. California appears headed to lose a whopping four seats, while Texas would gain four. The other prospective multi-seat gainer would be Florida at +3. Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah would each gain one. In addition to California, the losing states would be New York (-3) and Illinois (-2) with Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania losing one apiece. Oregon is the biggest surprise in the loser column because they gained a seat in the 2020 reapportionment. Since these numbers are all long range projections, the gainers and losers are not equal, which will correct itself once the final apportionment is completed after the next census many years from now. Comments are closed.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|