North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements: The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the December 15th candidate filing deadline is fast approaching and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.
Yesterday, saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Ms. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November. In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44% for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Mr. Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election. OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson: Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Mr. Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (December 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19th plurality primary will likely decide Mr. Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37% margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election. Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter. OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again: US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is December 20th for the March 19th primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made. Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43% victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The Congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Comments are closed.
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