Kentucky: Conflicting Polls: As we draw closer to the November 7th gubernatorial election in Kentucky, recent polling shows a major difference regarding the size of Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) lead over Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R).
The co/efficient survey research firm polling for the Bluegrass Freedom Action Fund (10/18-19; 1,845 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Beshear’s lead dissipating. According to this survey, the ballot test has closed to 47-45%. Garin-Hart-Yang Research, however, conducted an internal survey for the Beshear campaign several days earlier and found a different result. The poll (10/14-16; 741 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Beshear holding a 52-44% advantage. The Kentucky election is scheduled for November 7th. This election, and the Governor’s contest in Mississippi, could become precursors for next year’s regular election if the voters follow the Louisiana lead. The October 14th gubernatorial election in the latter state opened eyes when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry scored an upset outright win on October 14th. Polling consistently showed Mr. Landry leading, but with a percentage much lower than his final showing. Democrat Shawn Wilson finished well below his research projections. Gov. Beshear is favored to win re-election, but if co/efficient is correct, this race could be headed for a photo finish. Mississippi: Presley Gaining Ground: Democrats are releasing a new Public Policy Polling internal survey (10/19-20; 601 MS likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds their nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is a second cousin to the late Elvis Presley, pulling to within one point of Gov. Tate Reeves (R), 46-45%. Again, the turnout and voter swing dynamics that we saw in Louisiana might also play a role here. If so, we could be seeing a positive Republican trend. If not, then the Louisiana results would be considered an outlier. Additionally, the 2019 featuring then-Lt. Governor Reeves and then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), produced similarly close polling within the last month of the campaign. In the end, Mr. Reeves posted a 52-47% victory. Independent Gwendolyn Gray is also on the ballot. She could be significant in a close race between the major party contenders by keeping the leader under 50 percent. If no one receives majority support, a secondary runoff election will be held on November 28th. Comments are closed.
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