Georgia: Disconnect with Senate Race: Two more polls were released that find Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D), and running substantially ahead of Republican Senatorial candidate Herschel Walker. The juxtaposition makes these races interesting to watch.
Insider Advantage (10/16; 550 GA likely general election voters) gives Gov. Kemp a 50-43% lead over Ms. Abrams, but also sees Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock posting a 46-43% edge over Mr. Walker. Similarly, while Landmark Communications (10/15-17; 500 GA likely general election voters) projects Gov. Kemp’s lead at 51-45%, the firm derives a 46-46% tie between Sen. Warnock and Mr. Walker. Therefore, we continually see a relatively substantial single-digit swing in Sen. Warnock’s favor when comparing the gubernatorial results from consistent polling samples. This suggests we could see a split decision from these major Georgia statewide races. New York: More Data Finding Tightening Race: Quinnipiac University has joined the group of pollsters projecting the New York Governor’s race between Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), on the ballot for the first time in her own right after ascending to the position when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, and US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) as a close race. The Q-Poll (10/12-16; 1,617 NY likely general election voters; live interview) sees the spread between Gov. Hochul and Rep. Zeldin dropping to 50-46%. Four of the last seven polls see the contest falling between two and six percentage points, which represents a notable improvement for Mr. Zeldin. With New York early voting not beginning until October 29th, this race’s patterns still have a significant period in which to firm. Comments are closed.
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