Two pollsters’ final Iowa Caucus studies were released yesterday, and both Monmouth University and Civiqs, polling for Iowa State University, reveal basically the same finding. That is, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) appears to be in the strongest position while former Vice President Joe Biden and ex-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are also in range to perhaps snatch a first place finish. In any event, it appears that the top four finalists, in whatever order the race ends, will likely qualify for delegate apportionment. With only 41 delegates at stake, each candidate’s committed delegate share will be small.
The Des Moines Register and the New Hampshire Union Leader newspapers announced their endorsements on Friday, but the candidates not being tabbed shouldn’t fret. The DMR endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), while the Union Leader is backing Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA).
The Des Moines Register editorial board endorsed 11 candidates for the Iowa Caucuses since 1988, inclusive, and only three have won. The Union Leader backing Sen. Klobuchar is not particularly surprising since the paper is known for its conservative bent, and the Minnesota Senator is campaigning closer to the center than most of her Democratic counterparts. Because of its well-known ideological perspective, it’s unlikely that the paper’s editorial board will successfully influence the preponderance of Democratic primary voters. In fact, it may do Sen. Klobuchar more harm than good. Former Vice President Joe Biden may be catching a momentum wave at a very good time. Recent polling shows him leading in Florida and California, and now a David Binder Research survey (1/15-18; 500 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) finds him developing a clear advantage in the first voting state, Iowa. According to the Binder numbers, Mr. Biden has a 24-18-16-14-11% spread over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). The Minnesota lawmaker now appears to be making a badly needed late charge in neighboring Iowa.
Though Mr. Biden is projected to have a lead beyond the margin of error, this survey suggests that four candidates would still qualify to split Iowa’s 41-vote first ballot contingent. Therefore, it appears that the party’s nomination battle will be a long fight. The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for February 3rd. As we know, caucus voting rules are much different than primaries, and this is even truer in Iowa. There, supporting a candidate who does not receive 15% in the particular precinct means you may vote for another candidate in a second round because the original contender is eliminated from further competition. Such means we would see different raw vote and state delegate apportionment totals depending upon which round is being counted. Further complicating reporting in the 2020 caucus votes, which has not previously been the case, Caucus officials will release all of the totals and not just the final vote.
The Associated Press yesterday disclosed they will report the state delegate assignment totals since these are the individuals that will actually apportion the official 41 convention delegates at the Iowa Democratic Party Convention. The new reporting is likely to make the always confusing Iowa process even more so when the precinct caucus meetings commence on February 3rd. At the end of last week the Selzer & Company (1/2-8; 701 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders) found Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holding a slight Hawkeye State lead for the first time this cycle. The Selzer results see Sanders holding a 20-17-16-15% slight edge over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Yesterday, Monmouth University (1/9-12; 405 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders) also found a close race but with a slightly different take. Monmouth finds Mr. Biden holding first place, followed closely by the Vermont Senator. The MU split is 24-18-17-15-8%, respectively for Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Now exactly three weeks away from the first votes of the nomination season in the Iowa Caucus, the Selzer & Company poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom (1/2-8; 701 IA likely Democratic primary voters) finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders now holding a slight Hawkeye State lead for the first time this cycle. In 2016, Sen. Sanders surprisingly held Hillary Clinton to a virtual tie here, and it is apparent that his support base is remaining intact.
The Selzer results see Sanders holding a 20-17-16-15% slight edge over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Vice President Joe Biden. If this vote proportion were to be the actual result, all four of the candidates would qualify for delegate apportionment. The international polling firm YouGov surveyed the Iowa Democratic electorate (12/27-1/3; 747 IA likely Democratic primary voters) and found three of the top four candidates in a flat tie with each claiming 23% support.
According to the YouGov data, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Joe Biden, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are deadlocked. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) trails with 18% but would still qualify for delegate apportionment. If this were the final result, the 41 Iowa delegates would preliminarily split 11-11-11-8. Under the Iowa system, however, the actual delegate apportionment will occur at the state party convention later in the process meaning the vote distribution could change before the Iowa Democratic Party officially sanctions its convention delegation. The Civiqs organization released the findings of their latest Iowa Democratic survey (12/12-16; 632 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders) and it confirms other data results. It is becoming clear that the Iowa Caucuses are close among four candidates as we pull to within seven weeks of the vote. According to Civiqs, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is leading the Democratic contenders with 24% support. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is right behind with 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) falls back to 18%. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who is showing weakness in Iowa, places fourth in this survey with only 15%. The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for February 3rd.
Public Policy Polling surveyed the Iowa electorate for the End Citizens United organization (12/13-15; 944 IA registered voters) and asked leading questions to put Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the most negative possible light. Even so, the ballot test still finds her leading real estate executive Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic leadership’s candidate, by a 47-41% margin. Little national attention has been paid to this situation so far, but the Iowa campaign is expected to be a highly competitive contest next year, as will the presidential race and all four congressional campaigns here.
The Civiqs polling firm tested the Iowa Caucus likely electorate (11/15-19; 814 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) and confirms that Mayor Pete Buttigieg is surging within the state. This large sample survey finds him atop the field with a seven-point lead at 26%, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who garner 19 and 18%, respectively, with former Vice President Joe Biden lagging badly behind with only 12% support.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|