State Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) released his American Viewpoint survey (4/22-23; 400 IA-4 likely Republican primary voters) that gives incumbent Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron) a slight 41-34% edge in their Republican primary congressional battle that will be decided on June 2nd. Three other candidates are on the primary ballot, but they together split only 8% of the stated preference.
While Sen. Feenstra trails, he has the polling momentum and the financial support. In American Viewpoint’s late January poll, Rep. King led 53-22%, making the current late April numbers a net 24-point gain for the challenger. Among people who have an opinion of both candidates, Feenstra leads 53-29%. On the money front, Sen. Feenstra had a cash-on-hand advantage at the end of March of $415,651 to Rep. King’s $26,773. For the campaign, Sen. Feenstra has raised over $844,000, as compared to Rep. King’s $301,000. State Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) has developed a large resource advantage over his Republican primary opponent, US Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron), and his edge is about to get sharper. The new FEC disclosure filings find Mr. Feenstra with a $415,651 cash-on-hand reserve for the stretch drive to the June 2nd primary compared to Rep. King’s $26,773. Overall, Sen. Feenstra has raised $844,000 compared to Mr. King’s $301,000. Now the Main Street PAC has announced they are launching a $100,000 get-out-the-vote effort to assist Mr. Feenstra even further.
Rep. King got into political hot water over racially oriented comments that resulted in him being stripped of his committee assignments last year. Three other Republicans are also on the ballot. If no candidate receives 35% of the vote, a district convention will be convened to decide the nomination. Freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) unseated two-term Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018 and she can expect a tough re-election battle in the fall. Republicans were successful in recruiting their top prospect to make the challenge, state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion) who is a former television news anchor. A new Public Opinion Strategies survey for the National Republican Congressional Committee (3/3-5; 400 IA-1 likely general election voters) finds the race already becoming tight. The ballot test finds Rep. Finkenauer clinging to only a 45-44% lead.
The 1st District appeared to be a Democratic seat when originally crafted in 2011 redistricting. The voting behavior hasn’t responded that way since ex-Rep. Blum first won the seat in 2014 and President Trump carried it 49-45% in 2016, but it did rebound to Ms. Finkenauer two years later. This will become a top tier challenge race during the fall campaign. The Iowa Caucus counting and reporting debacle has claimed its first casualty. Iowa Democratic Party chairman Troy Price announced via letter that his is resigning his position, saying that he “bears full responsibility” for the glitches and mistakes that caused the reporting errors and massive delays. After the Caucus, Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez voiced his support for moving the first voting domain out of Iowa in the next election. At that point, it became clear that local penalties would be paid, and Mr. Price becomes the first to do so.
Three full days after Iowans went to their individual precinct meetings to cast their ballots, we have final numbers and the results are razor thin. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) placed first in the popular vote on both the first ballot and the alignment round – by margins of 6,114 and 2,631 votes, respectively – it is former Mayor Pete Buttigieg who captured the State Delegate Equivalent category, 26.25 to 26.18%.
The state delegates are the people who will actually apportion the national convention delegates and will do so at the Iowa Democratic Convention on June 13th. The national delegate projection, adding the statewide and congressional district totals, suggests that Buttigieg will come away with 14, Sanders 12, Sen. Elizabeth Warren 8, former Vice President Joe Biden 6, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar 1. Meanwhile, Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez, citing the existence of numerous calculation and reporting errors in the Iowa Caucus returns, says the Iowa Democratic Party should recount every ballot to ensure a verifiable count. IDP officials have not signaled any support for such idea, especially since they are still not even finished with the initial count. The Future Leaders Fund released their Harper Polling survey taken in mid-January (1/11-12; 400 IA-1 likely voters) that found Republican challenger Ashley Hinson, a state Representative from the Marion and Cedar Rapids area and former news anchor, is already running close to freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque). According to the Harper numbers, Finkenauer’s ballot test advantage would only be 44-40% over Hinson.
Additionally, in testing the undecided cell, 51% said they would be less likely to vote for Finkenauer after hearing she had voted to impeach President Trump, while 48% said less likely if they knew the Congresswoman has a similar voting record to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-NY). The Iowa Democratic Party still has not completed counting the Iowa Caucus votes, but they are finally close. Now, 97% of the tabulations are completed and verified. Though Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) led by almost 6,000 raw votes on the first ballot and more than 2,500 on the aligned vote when the candidates recording less than 15% were eliminated and attenders re-voted, he still has a few less state delegate equivalent votes than former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
At the end of the day, it appears that Buttigieg and Sanders will come away virtually tied in the all-important Democratic National Convention delegate category. According to projections when adding the congressional district votes combined with the at-large numbers, and these could change when the Iowa Democratic Convention convenes on June 13th, Buttigieg would score 14 delegates, Sanders 12, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) 8, former Vice President Joe Biden 6, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 1. Turnout suggests that the number of participants will equal the 2016 factor, which is approximately 172,000 caucus attenders throughout the state. The number is far short of the record 240,000 that came to meetings in 2008, however, when Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton competed for the party nomination. The Iowa Democratic Party, as being widely reported, has now released what accounts for 71% of their delayed vote. As a result of their complicated system, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) holds an approximate 1,300 statewide vote lead but trails by a percentage point and a half in the number of apportioned state delegates to the Iowa Democratic Convention on June 13th. At that time, the state convention will officially assign national convention delegates to the candidates.
Possibly the biggest story is former Vice President Joe Biden’s poor performance. He has just 15.4% of the state delegates, barely enough to qualify for at-large convention votes. In a result no one predicted, tangible votes are still not being reported the morning after the Iowa Caucus due to a collapse in the state Democratic Party’s reporting software or vote verification system. Though former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg seems to be claiming victory based on his projections, he does so without any confirmation of viable numbers.
It does appear, from the few precincts that did make the news media, possibly five candidates will qualify for delegates. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) seems to have exceeded expectations, while former Vice President Joe Biden looks to be performing under expectations and was even failing the viability test in several early precincts. A candidate is “viable” for the second round if he or she reaches 15% support. What comes from Iowa is that five competitive candidates will move onto New Hampshire and a sixth, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, continues to improve his own standing in playing his outside strategy. Mr. Bloomberg is skipping the first states in hopes of scoring big on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, when electorates from 14 states and one territory will vote. It appears that anything can happen in tonight’s Iowa Caucus vote. What appear to be the final two polls before actual voting begins show two different leaders and potentially as many as five candidates exceeding the 15% minimum threshold in order to qualify for delegate apportionment. Both, however, show Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) making a surge and possibly her campaign peaking at exactly the right moment.
American Research Group (1/27-30; 400 IA likely Democratic caucus meeting attenders) and Park Street Strategies’ (1/24-28; 600 IA likely Democratic caucus meeting attenders) unsurprisingly project a tight finish. ARG finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading the group, as do most other studies, 20-18-16-15-9% consecutively over former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Park Street sees a different order, but with the candidates just as close. PSS projects Mr. Biden leading with a 20-18-17-17-12% order over Sen. Sanders with Sen. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg tied, and Sen. Klobuchar in fifth but climbing into double digits. |
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