CO-3: Recount Confirms Rep. Boebert’s Victory: The mandatory recount in Colorado’s 3rd District is complete, and the final tally confirms Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) close victory over former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D). The recount changed only four votes to the original tally, thus making Rep. Boebert’s margin of victory 546 votes. Mr. Frisch had conceded the election weeks ago, but Colorado election law mandated the recount because the two candidates were separated by less than ½ a percentage point. The Democratic nominee says he is open to seeking a re-match in 2024.
VA-4: Dems Schedule Rapid Fire Special Primary: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) calling a February 21st special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) has spurred the local 4th District Democratic committee to call a very quick “firehouse primary.” A Virginia “firehouse primary” is a term given to a primary election that has very few polling places. Gov. Youngkin’s order set December 23rd as the deadline for choosing party nominees. The Democratic nomination battle, which will likely determine the next congressional member, is now scheduled for December 20th, giving the candidates only a week to campaign. The leading contenders are state Sens Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond), Joseph Morrissey (D-Richmond), and Delegate Lamont Baxby (D-Richmond). Republicans have yet to determine their nomination process. Chicago: Rep. Garcia Leads Mayor’s Race in Union Poll: Though the poll is just about a month old, the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 just released their Impact Research study of the impending Chicago Mayor’s race. The survey (11/10-17; 700 likely Chicago local election voters; live interview and text) found US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) leading Mayor Lori Lightfoot 25-18% within a field of nine candidates. The data suggests the two would advance to an April 4th runoff election from the non-partisan February 28th election.
In the hypothetical runoff, Rep. Garcia would lead Mayor Lightfoot by a whopping 55-25% margin. The controversial Mayor posts very poor job approval ratings, with 68% disapproving of her performance in office. She received positive ratings only from the black community, and even there registered just a 50% favorable score. A total of 84% of white voters and 72% of Hispanics disapprove of how she has handled her mayoral duties. Texas: Cruz Polling Up for Renomination, Down for President: According to a Texas-based Republican pollster, Sen. Ted Cruz is in strong shape among prospective GOP primary voters for renomination, but not for a presidential campaign. The CWS Research firm recently conducted a Texas poll (11/28-29; 860 TX likely 2024 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and online) and finds the Senator posting a strong 81% renomination score, but only records 3% support for another presidential bid.
The CWS poll leader is former President Donald Trump at 37% preference with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis following closely with 34%. Former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley also finish slightly ahead of Sen. Cruz in his home state. Mr. Pence draws 5% backing and Ms. Haley 4%, as compared to Sen. Cruz’s 3 percent. Arizona: Dem Primary Could Be Competitive: Apparently Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is not the only Arizona Democratic Congressman considering a run for the Senate. According to a report from the Daily Kos Elections site, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix), who served six years as Mayor of Phoenix and nine years on the Phoenix City Council before being elected to the US House in 2018, has conducted a statewide US Senate poll. If he were to run in what would now be an open US Senate Democratic primary since new Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema will advance directly into the general election, a tough battle would develop in an August 2024 primary between the two Phoenix-based congressional Democrats.
Rep. Stanton was re-elected in November with a 56-44% margin against a credible Republican, businessman Kelly Cooper. This, after his district was changed from a D+15 to a D+1 rating according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization calculations meaning he rather impressively exceeded expectations. VA-4: Special Election Scheduled: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has surprisingly scheduled the special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) for February 21st. With Democrats certain to hold this seat in the special election, it was thought Gov. Youngkin would delay a bit longer, possibly to early April, in order to give the Republicans a further one-seat edge in the House party division count.
With the Feb. 21 general election date that will fast approach, the political parties must quickly assemble and determine how their nominees will be chosen. At this point, their realistic options are to nominate in a special district convention or hold a “firehouse primary,” that is an election with very few polling places around the district. The Democratic nomination will be the contest to watch, since the 4th District is rated as D+30. At this point, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond) and Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond) have announced their intention to file as candidates. For the Republicans, two-time nominee Leon Benjamin and insurance agent and frequent candidate Ron Wallace have declared that they will run. Indiana: Sen. Braun Announces: First-term Hoosier State Sen. Mike Braun (R) made his obvious intentions to run for Governor official yesterday with his formal announcement. He will be a strong favorite for the Republican nomination, which gives him the inside track in the general election.
There is a good possibility that his Democratic opponent will be former US Senator and current Ambassador to the Holy See Joe Donnelly. Ironically, this would set a re-match between the two men of the 2018 Senate race, a campaign that Mr. Braun won with a 51-45% victory margin. The Braun announcement now sets into motion a competitive Senate campaign that will likely feature a crowded Republican primary. Arizona: Sen. Sinema Officially Becomes an Independent: Clearly preparing for a re-election campaign while her standing before the Democratic Party electorate is poor, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema on Friday announced that she is leaving the party and will represent Arizona as an Independent. Little will change in terms of her voting record, but the campaign strategy completely transforms for all involved. Not having to worry about re-nomination, Sen. Sinema will advance directly into the general election assuming she can obtain valid registered voter petition signatures from 45,000 Arizonans. She can begin signature gathering right away, so even this large number should be attainable over such a long duration.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who had been rumored as a Sinema Democratic primary challenger, continues to move forward with his Senate plans. While admittedly convening a Senate planning group, the Congressman says he will not formally decide about running until after the first of the year. Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb also confirms he is considering entering the Senate GOP primary. Regardless of who decides to run, the 2024 Arizona Senate race will be another contest attracting huge national attention. Sen. Sinema’s move to the Independent ballot line certainly increases her chances of winning, but she is certainly no lock to claim a second term in the next election. California: Rep. Khanna Considers Senate Race: California Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), who was just elected to a fourth term in the House, said over the weekend that he would consider running for the Senate in 2024 if incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who will be 91 years of age at the time of the next election, decides to retire as expected. Rep. Khanna further said he would more than likely seek re-election in 2024, but the door is clearly open to him exploring a Senatorial run in what is expected to be a crowded Democratic battle should the seat open. The Congressman has been a strong fundraiser, averaging a total receipts figure of over $4 million per election cycle for his four successful congressional campaigns along with $5+ million remaining in his federal account, so he would have the financial base to begin a statewide run. CO-3: Automatic Recount Beginning: The recount for the close CO-3 congressional race featuring Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) and Democratic former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch is close to completion in the district that covers Colorado’s Western Slope region. Though Mr. Frisch has already conceded the race to Rep. Boebert, the recount is taking place under the state’s election law that mandates a re-tabulation for any contest that falls within a margin of just ½ a percent.
Though Rep. Boebert’s 548-vote lead from 327,124 ballots cast is expected to stand, the 27 involved counties that comprise the 3rd District must continue the recount. Mr. Frisch says he is likely to run again in 2024. The recount process must be completed by tomorrow so the election certification process can be completed. VA-4: Special Election Candidates Beginning to Come Forward: While Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has yet to call a special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) who passed away in late November, several individuals have come forward to announce their candidacies. The first is state Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), who has been a long-time supporter and confidant of Rep. McEachin’s. State Sen. Jennifer McCellan (D-Richmond), who placed third in the 2021 Democratic gubernatorial primary, also says she will enter the special congressional election. Before winning her state Senate seat in 2017, Ms. McClellan served six terms in the state House of Delegates. For the Republicans, who have little chance in a 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+30, their two-time nominee and Christian pastor Leon Benjamin says he will enter the special election field. Virginia’s 4th Congressional District begins in Richmond and then travels south all the way to the North Carolina border. The CD includes the cities of Richmond, Petersburg, and Emporia, along with the Colonial Heights, Chester, and Lawrenceville communities. Indiana: Former Governor Making Moves: After going through a very quiet 2022 election, the Indiana political scene is fast becoming a focal point of the early 2024 election cycle. Reports from the state surfaced yesterday that former Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), who has ruled out a run for his former job, is making moves to assess his chances in an open US Senate race. Sen. Mike Braun (R) won’t seek re-election in order to mount his own campaign in the open Governor’s race. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but has not wholly closed the door on entering the Senate race.
The Republican nominee, to be chosen in an early May 2024 primary, will be the heavy favorite to win both the open Senate and Governor’s positions. Therefore, much attention will be paid to the GOP primary as it continues to evolve over what will now be a long period. Pennsylvania: Republicans Searching for Challenger Candidate: The Pennsylvania Republican Party is planning to make a major run against Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) in 2024 and are already searching for a strong challenger. Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who came within 900 votes of winning the 2022 Republican primary, is certainly a possible option, but the latest reports suggest that state Treasurer Stacy Garrity would be an attractive potential Senate candidate. We can expect a competitive GOP primary to develop, and yet another hard-fought general election in two years here not only for President, but also again for a critically important US Senate seat. Pennsylvania House: Majority Depends Upon Dead Representative: The 203-member Pennsylvania House is facing a dilemma. The Democrats scored a one-seat majority in the election and, on paper, have a 102-101 edge. Their problem is that the 102nd vote, veteran Rep. Anthony DeLuca (D-Penn Hills), passed away just before the election. Running against a Green Party candidate, Mr. DeLuca was re-elected with 85% of the vote even though he had already passed.
Additionally, Pennsylvania law allows candidates to simultaneously run for more than one office in the same election. This means two more Democratic House vacancies have occurred. State Rep. Summer Lee (D-Braddock) resigned her state House seat because she was elected to Congress. State Rep. Austin Davis (D-McKeesport) left the House to assume his new position as Lt. Governor. The body’s further problem is that the Speaker of the House sets the special election calendar to fill vacancies in the chamber and not the Governor. Therefore, the legislators are embroiled in a dispute over whether or not these special elections can even legally be called since no official Speaker has been elected. Republicans have rejected the Democratic Leader’s special election schedule and Democrats opposed the outgoing GOP Speaker’s special election plan even though both had placed the elections on the same day. |
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