Electoral College: West Moving Left, East Moving Right: The researchers at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics have completed a study regarding the country’s ideological shift during the past 20+ years. Tracking all 50 states’ presidential votes from the 2000-2020 elections, we first see all of the western states now voting Democratic in greater percentages with the exception of Wyoming. The biggest shifts came in Alaska, California, Colorado, and Utah, though two of those four states still regularly produce at least smaller majority or plurality Republican victories.
Conversely, the south and east have trended more Republican with the strongest swings generally occurring in central south with only Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia becoming more Democratic. Mid-Atlantic states such as New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia have moved decidedly more Republican, though two of these four continue to regularly deliver clear Democratic majorities. Remaining constant in their voting pattern during this entire 20-year span are Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and South Carolina. North Carolina: NC Supreme Court Tosses State Senate Map: The North Carolina state Supreme Court, with the 4-3 Democratic majority on the cusp of expiring, rejected the NC Senate map on a partisan vote as a partisan gerrymander. But, the action is likely to be short-lived and adds fuel to the speculation that the new legislature will re-draw all of the state’s redistricting maps after commencement. Doing so may well render moot the partisan gerrymandering case that the US Supreme Court recently heard.
Under North Carolina legislative procedure, the Governor has no veto power over redistricting legislation, so whatever the legislature passes will become law. Because of the current court’s farewell action, the state Senate map must be re-configured. Since Republicans gained two seats on the state Supreme Court in the November election and will have a 5-2 majority beginning in January, the likelihood of not only the Senate map being redrawn but also the state House and congressional delegation plans is greater. The latter two maps are court-drawn interim placeholders, which the legislature can replace at any time. Primary Schedule: Push Back Could Change Announced Plan: Apparently, the Democrats haven’t quite settled on the 2024 primary schedule due to objections from certain party leaders about South Carolina being moved to the number one position. Last week, President Biden made a specific schedule change suggestion involving several states that the initial Democratic National Committee policy panel approved. The plan called for South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan, in that order, being allowed to host primary elections prior to a larger number of states voting on Super Tuesday in early March.
Now, it appears that a move potentially involving Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina ultimately becoming the first state on the Democratic calendar could potentially alter the not-yet-adopted presidential primary voting schedule. Therefore, while it looked as if the Biden suggestions were headed for full DNC adoption, such might not be the final decision. NV-1: Challenger Files 2024 Committee: Businessman Mark Robertson (R), who lost to Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) by a 52-46% count in November, has filed a new congressional committee for 2024. Mr. Robertson’s action does not mean he is committed to running again, but certainly leaves the door open for a seamless transition into another campaign. Short-term, it provides a legal fundraising vehicle.
Redistricting changed the 1st District from a D+22 seat, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, to its current D+4, thus making it a competitive CD for the next several elections. Whether Mr. Robertson again becomes an official candidate or not, Rep. Titus can expect another competitive challenge coming her way in 2024. VA-4: Democrat Drops Out: Approaching the quickly called December 20th firehouse special election primary, where only five polling stations are open throughout the sprawling district that stretches from Richmond to the North Carolina border, state Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), one of the leading candidates, withdrew from the race and endorsed state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond). She now appears as the party leaders’ selected choice. Republicans are voting in their firehouse primary tomorrow. The scheduled February 21st special congressional election is on the ballot to replace the late Congressman Donald McEachin (D-Richmond). Massachusetts: Gov. Baker in Line for New Position: Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) has accepted a new position that takes him both out of politics and the private business sector. Beginning in March, he will become the new President of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA).
Now that football is administered through the College Football Association, the NCAA has much less influence over the domain of college athletics. His biggest challenge in this new position is making sure the organization does not lose control over the annual national college basketball tournament, which is the NCAA’s largest current event. Virginia: Many Announce Against Sen. Kaine: For a Senate race that appears safe in this early part of the 2024 election cycle, the Virginia contest is surprisingly already drawing a great deal of candidate interest. It’s unlikely that any of the five Republicans and one Democrat who have announced their candidacies can defeat Sen. Tim Kaine (D), but we are at least assured of seeing a multi-candidate Republican nomination battle.
Of the five announced candidates, only two, financial advisor and retired Army officer Eddie Garcia and attorney and Navy veteran Chuck Smith, seem credible enough to become potentially viable candidates. VA-4: Republicans Schedule Quick Firehouse Primary: Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) call to the political parties to choose their nominees by December 23rd for the February 21st special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) has given the party leaders precious little time, but now both entities have scheduled “firehouse primaries.” As reported yesterday, the Democrats will hold their primary next Tuesday, December 20th. Now, the local Republicans are moving even quicker. They will have people vote in a special primary this Saturday, December 17th.
The schedule is ridiculously short and does not give the candidates time to campaign nor the voters an adequate ability to know who is running and where to vote since the polling places in a firehouse primary are very scare. At this point, Democrats have five candidates and Republicans four. Louisiana: Sen. Kennedy Releases Another Poll: While Sen. John Kennedy (R) says he will make a decision about running for Governor after the first of the year, he continues to release polling data showing him holding a lead against a field of prospective open seat 2023 gubernatorial candidates.
His latest survey, again from Torchlight Strategies (12/6-9; 861 LA likely 2023 gubernatorial election voters; live interview and text), projects Sen. Kennedy to be holding a 42-22-14% lead over state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) and Attorney General and former US Congressman Jeff Landry (R) in what will be an October 14th jungle primary. In potential runoff pairings, which would be scheduled for November 18th of next year, Sen. Kennedy would lead AG Landry 46-21% and Secretary Wilson by a much larger 58-27%. These numbers, and the fact that Mr. Kennedy is releasing them, clearly suggests that the Senator will affirmatively announce his gubernatorial campaign in January. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. West New York: Retiring Congressman Plans Mayoral Run: Though New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires (D-West New York) is retiring from the House of Representatives this year after serving eight terms, he is apparently not finished with elective politics. Reports suggest that Mr. Sires will soon announce his candidacy for Mayor of West New York, one of the elected positions he held before winning his seat in Congress.
Mr. Sires served as Mayor from his original election in 1995 until he won the US House position in 2006. Beginning in 2001, he was also an elected member of the New Jersey state Assembly, where he became Speaker in 2002. USA Today Poll: DeSantis’ Big Lead Suspect: Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (12/7-11; 1,000 US registered voters; 374 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) leading both President Biden and former President Donald Trump in their latest published survey.
The general election data that finds DeSantis leading President Biden, 47-43%, is the more legitimate number. The Republican primary result, that tested only 374 individuals nationally and shows DeSantis holding a huge 56-33% advantage over Trump, should be discarded because it is not statistically sound. The Morning Consult organization also released a survey, this with a much greater sample size (12/9-11; 4,215 self-identified Republican voters; online) and arrived at an opposite conclusion vis-à-vis the hypothetical Republican nomination battle. Including many candidates, Morning Consult finds Mr. Trump holding a 49-31% lead over Gov. DeSantis, with former Vice-President Mike Pence recording 8%. All other candidates posted a preference factor of 2% or less. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|