The 2020 presidential campaign is officially under way now that we have a straw poll to report. The leftward MoveOn.org group released the results of their first straw poll, testing for preference among the plethora of Democratic candidates. In a bit of a surprise, Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), fresh from his US Senate defeat at the hands of Sen. Ted Cruz (R), led all the candidates with 15.6% support. Closely behind in second place was former Vice President Joe Biden (14.9%), Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (13.1%), and California Sen. Kamala Harris (10.0%).
In the second tier were Sen. Elizabeth Warren (6.4%) with a rather poor showing, Sens. Sherrod Brown (2.9%) and Amy Klobuchar (2.8%), former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (2.7%), and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2.6%), consecutively. The poll is not statistically significant but does give us an idea that the party’s most hardened ideological faction is almost evenly split. Massachusetts State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover), who placed a distant third in the crowded open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary back in September, says she is considering challenging 6th District Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) because he is a key leader of the movement to deny Nancy Pelosi from becoming Speaker.
Sen. L’Italien, leaving office at the end of the year, would be a formidable opponent to Rep. Moulton, but largely and unknown one. She currently represents less than 25% of the 6th District, but her budding candidacy is worth noting, however. A great deal of action has already occurred in preparation for next year’s Louisiana Governor’s campaign, and yesterday more news was made. State Treasurer John Schroder (R), who confirmed he was considering entering the Governor’s race, announced that he would not challenge Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards.
At this point, understanding that the candidate filing deadline won’t occur until next summer, the main contenders are US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R). Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) remains a possible entry now that Sen. John Kennedy (R) is officially out of the Governor’s race. While North Carolina’s 9th District appears headed for a re-vote because the Board of Elections refuses to certify Republican Mark Harris’ 905 vote lead over Democrat Dan McCready, this seat may not be the only Tarheel State congressional district headed toward another election.
Rep. Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) is being mentioned as a possible successor to outgoing White House chief of staff John Kelly. If the Congressman is selected – he was quoted saying he would accept the position if the opportunity arises – the 11th District will also be forced into a new special election. Therefore, it is possible that North Carolina politicos could be in store for a very busy early 2019. The 11th District covers the southwestern portion of the state, that is nestled within the Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina state borders. Known as a swing district during the past generation, NC-11 has been strongly Republican since the 1990 election, except for former Rep. Heath Shuler’s (D) three-term stint in a differently configured district. Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) just lost the Governor’s race in November, but he has already made a political comeback of sorts. Over the weekend he was elected as chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party and will attempt to rebuild the party, which now has no GOP officials either in statewide or federal office.
Mr. Pearce has also not ruled out attempting to re-gain his House seat after Democratic attorney Xochitl Torres-Small converted the seat in the general election. As party chairman, however, it may be difficult for him to devote time to his new responsibilities and simultaneously prepare for another congressional campaign against a freshman Democratic member. After Mr. Pearce ran for US Senate in 2008 and gave up the House seat he originally won in 2002, he returned in 2010 to re-capture the district from the freshman Democratic incumbent who replaced him. The question remains open as to whether he will attempt to make the same move in 2020. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to only one term in office. Therefore, despite Gov. Ralph Northam (D) only being in office for one year, he is already a lame duck. For the open 2021 campaign, Attorney General Mark Herring (D) yesterday announced that he will be a gubernatorial candidate. He may be jumping into the race so quickly in order to earn an advantage over Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (D), who also has reported interest in succeeding Gov. Northam.
Last week, we covered the story that first-term conservative state Representative Robert Foster (R-DeSoto County), also known as “Farmer Bob,” was close to making a decision about entering the 2019 open Governor’s race. It appears the speculation may quickly come to fruition as he has scheduled an announcement for later today. If Rep. Foster officially becomes a candidate, he will soon be opposed by Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) who promises to announce his intention to run before the new state legislative session commences on January 8th.
For the Democrats, four-term Attorney General Jim Hood is already an official candidate. He has run very well in his four statewide races and will be a formidable contender even in this strongly Republican state. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. With the North Carolina Board of Elections showing no signs of changing their decision to deny certification of Republican Mark Harris’ 905 vote lead over Democrat Dan McCready due to election irregularities, we now see both parties calling for a new election. Mr. Harris, himself, said over the weekend that if actual malfeasance is uncovered a new election should be called.
At the heart of the matter is a Harris consulting firm being accused of engaging in “ballot harvesting,” where individuals collect absentee ballots from individuals and bundle them into the county elections’ office in lieu of the voter directly mailing their document. This procedure is not allowed under North Carolina law. Ironically, California changed its law before this last election to allow ballot harvesting and it proved to be a factor in the Democrats’ many Golden State wins. Mr. Harris, a retired Baptist pastor, defeated Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) in the May Republican primary. If the US House orders a new election by declaring the seat vacant, the decision could result in former Rep. Pittenger having an opportunity to make a political comeback in the ensuing special election. If the Board of Elections orders a new vote before the House acts, then the participants would likely be limited only those who appeared on the 2018 general election ballot: Harris, McCready, and Libertarian candidate Jeff Scott. Just days after state Rep. Russ Spano (R-Riverview) defeated attorney Kristen Carlson (D) 53-47%, controversy arose. Complaints that Mr. Spano accepted approximately $180,000 in allegedly illegal campaign loans have now reached Washington. In a response to the NC-9 situation that will probably result in no one being seated until a new election is scheduled and conducted, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, very likely the next Speaker, indicated that a question may be posed about whether Mr. Spano should be seated on January 3rd because of this campaign finance situation.
A local Austin political blog suggested that Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) might be considering developing a campaign to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2020 Republican primary. Similar rumors surrounded Patrick two years ago in conjunction with a potential 2018 primary challenge to Gov. Greg Abbott. At that time, Mr. Patrick quickly ended such speculation when he responded by publicly endorsing the Governor for re-election. Now, the Lt. Governor again finds himself immediately quashing rumors about running for another office, saying he has no intention of challenging Sen. Cornyn.
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