Speculation is becoming rampant about the 2019 gubernatorial elections. Two new names have surfaced as potential Louisiana candidates, former US Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta (R).
The field begun taking shape once US Sen. John Kennedy (R) announced that he would not challenge Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) next year. Currently in the race are US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and GOP developer Eddie Rispone. Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) is another potential candidate. Plenty of time for decisions remains, however. The candidate filing deadline is not until August 8th for the October 12th jungle primary, followed by a November 16th run-off if no one obtains majority support. In Kentucky, another Democrat is soon expected to enter the campaign against first-term Gov. Matt Bevin (R). Former state Auditor Adam Edelen has formed an exploratory committee. If he moves forward, Mr. Edelen will join Attorney General Andy Beshear and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) as official candidates. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor), who placed first on election night by 1,910 votes but lost Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting run-off system that allows people who vote for losing candidates to have a second and possibly third vote count toward the ultimate election, lost his seat to Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) as a result of the unique system.
After the election, Mr. Poliquin sued in federal court claiming the system is unconstitutional, but yesterday the judge rejected his case. Thus, constitutionality of the Ranked Choice system was upheld even though the state Supreme Court has ruled it unconstitutional for state races. It is unclear if Mr. Poliquin will appeal yesterday’s ruling. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) has not yet committed to running for a fourth term but releasing his new North Star Opinion Research poll (11/26-29; 600 TN likely voters) provides a good indication that he is looking to do so. According to the new survey, the Senator’s favorability index, the only numbers placed in the public domain, finds him at a very high 65:22% favorable to unfavorable. In the eastern Tennessee region, his ratio soars even higher to 72:18%. The third quarter Morning Consult approval ratings, however, posted Mr. Alexander to only a 43:33% overall positive rating.
The 78-year old Senator says he will make his political plans public before the end of this year. In 2014, he won re-nomination over state Rep. Joe Carr (R), 50-41%, and secured a landslide 62-32% victory in the 2014 general election. Outgoing US Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora), who lost his seat in November to Democrat Jason Crow, says he will not again seek partisan public office. He has, however, left open the possibility of running for Mayor of Aurora, which is elected on a non-partisan basis.
Mr. Coffman has been in public office since his first election to the state House of Representatives in 1988. He then served in the state Senate, as state Treasurer, Secretary of State, and will complete five terms in the US House of Representatives. Now that two Republicans have officially announced their candidacies to oppose Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), Remington Research went into the field to test where the contenders currently stand. The survey (12/11-12; 1,680 LA likely 2019 gubernatorial election voters) finds Gov. Edwards holding a jungle primary lead over both US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Alexandria) and developer Eddie Rispone (R). But, advancing to a run-off election should no candidate score majority support suggests the final outcome could be very close.
With all individuals appearing on the ballot for the original vote, which will come next October, Gov. Edwards would lead Rep. Abraham and Mr. Rispone, 43-31-9%. But, the mid-40s may be at least an early ceiling for Mr. Edwards. If he and Rep. Abraham advanced to a run-off, the two would tie at 44% apiece. If Mr. Rispone finished second in the original election, Gov. Edwards would top him in the run-off, but only by a 46-39% margin. North Carolina Republicans appear resigned to the eventuality that the 9th District will host a new election. Considering the election fraud allegations that kept GOP candidate Mark Harris’ 905-vote victory on November 6th from being officially certified, the Republican nominee’s standing has clearly been damaged. Therefore, a rerun campaign featuring himself, Democrat Dan McCready, and Libertarian Jeff Scott, would likely result in another GOP loss.
Attempting to divert what appears to be a figurative oncoming train, Republicans in the state legislature passed a new election law that will require an open partisan primary as part of a broad legislative package to reform the controversial State Board of Elections. With bipartisan approval (79-19 in the House and 34-3 in the Senate), the bill has a good chance of winning Gov. Roy Cooper’s (D) support but he has not yet signaled he will sign the bill. With such margins, however, even a Cooper veto might not stop the legislation from becoming law. The special primary provision will allow the Republicans the opportunity of choosing an alternative candidate to improve their special election prospects. Under current law, the Board of Elections can only order a rerun of the affected contest, meaning the general vote in this case that would place just Harris, McCready, and Scott on the ballot. The new procedure would allow anyone to enter an open partisan primary. A run-off, if no one received 40% of the vote in either party primary, would then be held prior to a special general election. First-term Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), who did not seek re-election after being publicly accused of sexual harassment, is apparently not done with running for office. Mr. Kihuen has already opened a campaign committee to run for Las Vegas City Council next year, so it will be interesting to see if the controversy that cost him his congressional career will be a factor in a local Las Vegas city race.
Former Obama Administration Housing & Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro (D) officially formed a presidential exploratory committee, but apparently won’t spend too much time assessing his chances. Mr. Castro has scheduled an announcement for January 12th, at which time he is expected to formally enter the national race. The former Secretary’s lone electoral experience is successfully running for Mayor of San Antonio, TX.
Rep-Elect John Rose (R-TN) announced yesterday that former Congressman Van Hilleary (R-TN) has agreed to serve as the new member’s chief of staff. Mr. Hilleary was first elected to the House in 1994 and served four terms before running unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002, losing a tight 51-48% contest to former Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen. As we will remember, Mr. Bredesen ran for Senate this year and fell to Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood). Mr. Hilleary also became a US Senate candidate in 2006 but lost the Republican primary to future Sen. Bob Corker (R).
Interestingly, Mr. Hilleary is the second former Congressman returning in a staff role for the next session. Earlier, incoming Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) announced that she has hired former Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ) to run her district office program. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), likely to be elected Speaker on January 3rd, raised eyebrows when she indicated that questions could arise about seating Rep-Elect Ross Spano from Florida’s 15th District. Controversy has arisen about his handling of certain loans to his campaign, legal if properly administered, but many suggest that the transactions violate campaign finance law.
Recalling the 1968 Supreme Court decision in relation to the House barring then-Rep. Adam Clayton Powell (D-NY) from being seated because of financial impropriety with taxpayer dollars, some legal advisors believe the House does not have the authority to deny Mr. Spano his seat. Armed with a 53-47% victory and an official certificate of election from the state of Florida, Mr. Spano has what is required to be sworn into office. The ’68 Supreme Court decision said the House of Representatives cannot bar a duly elected member from taking office, but can expel an individual should the body find the member in violation of laws or rules. |
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