Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME), who lost his initial attempt at overturning Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system and subsequently called a halt to the full recount of the November vote that was well underway, said yesterday that he will appeal the lower court decision.
Mr. Poliquin is arguing that the RCV, which gives more votes to people whose original candidates finish in the second tier, is unconstitutional. His argument met with a clear rejection in the federal district court, but the outgoing Congressman will strive to seek a better result at the higher level. The Maine state Supreme Court has already ruled the system as unconstitutional for state races, but they have no jurisdiction over federal races. The Democracy for Action organization surveyed what they claim are 94,000 self-identified progressives asking their preference for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. As was the case in 2016, the most liberal faction of the Democratic Party is again lining up behind Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. In this new survey, he captured 36% support.
Again falling far behind, as she has already done in other polls, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren attracts only 8%, falling to single digits even within a group where she should draw strong support. In second position is former Vice President Joe Biden followed by Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX). The two captured 15 and 12%, respectively. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies released the first Kentucky gubernatorial election poll for the coming cycle, and it does not provide Gov. Matt Bevin (R) with good news. The poll was taken over the December 12-15 period, and interviewed 625 Kentucky likely gubernatorial campaign voters.
According to the results, Gov. Bevin’s job approval is an upside down 38:53% favorable to unfavorable, which compares poorly to President Trump’s 46:37% positive rating. Mr. Bevin has particular problems in the state’s two largest population centers, Lexington and Louisville. There, his job approval is an equivalent 31:61 and 31:60%, respectively. Against potential Democratic opponents, Gov. Bevin would trail Attorney General Andy Beshear, 48-40%, and even falls one point behind little known state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook), 42-41%. Though many incumbents have rebounded from numbers such as these, it appears Mr. Bevin has his work cut out for him if he is to win a second term next year. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) released a statement yesterday announcing that he does not intend to seek re-election to a fourth term in 2020. Prior to being elected in 2002, Mr. Alexander had served as US Education Secretary under President George H.W. Bush, and as Tennessee Governor for two terms. Mr. Alexander is the only person in Tennessee history who served as both Governor and US Senator.
The Senate opening will ignite a large field of candidates seeking the office, particularly on the Republican side. Moves will soon be made, so this story will continue to develop. The Tennessee nominating primaries won’t be held until the first week of August in 2020. It is now a virtual certainty that North Carolina’s 9th District will begin the new Congress as a vacant seat pending a new election. The North Carolina State Board of Elections postponed their December 21st meeting to January 11th, meaning the issue of officially certifying Republican Mark Harris’ apparent 905 vote victory will not be finally decided until almost two weeks after the new congressional session begins.
The meeting, however, is basically a formality. All sides are calling for a new election, which will almost certainly be ordered at the next BoE meeting. A new law is likely to be enacted that will open the impending special primary election to all individuals meaning Mr. Harris may not even be re-nominated. The accusations of voter fraud surrounding his lead have severely damaged his image, therefore he would have a very difficult time of winning the seat in the special. Republicans will likely move forward with a new candidate, while Democrats are almost certain to coalesce behind their 2018 nominee, businessman Dan McCready. The special election will likely be scheduled sometime in March. A run-off will occur if a leading party primary candidate falls under 40%. After losing his constitutional federal lawsuit to strike down Maine’s instant run-off system, known as Ranked Choice Voting, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) has ended the full recount he requested of last month’s vote.
The recount process was about half complete, but Poliquin was gaining no significant number of votes. On the first vote, the Congressman finished ahead by just under 2,000 votes, before the RCV system then placed him about 3,500 votes behind Rep-Elect Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Under the system, if no one receives majority support those who voted for the last place candidate then has their second and sometimes third ranked choice count toward the overall result. Now, Mr. Poliquin must decide if he will appeal the unfavorable federal court decision that effectively ended any real opportunity for him to regain the seat for the coming term. South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) announced that he will not seek re-election to a third term and is expected to join the presidential campaign sometime early next year. Mr. Buttigieg, who is openly gay, will bank on strong support from the LGBT community and its allies as he builds a base within the Democratic Party. Though officially mum about running for President, he is already heading to Iowa for speaking appearances this coming weekend.
Mr. Buttigieg was first elected in 2011 at the age of 29. He is a Rhodes Scholar, Afghan War veteran, and a Naval Reserve officer. Appointed Sen. Jon Kyl (R), following through on his stated intention to only serve a short time when he replaced the late Sen. John McCain (R) in early September, announced that he will resign his position on December 31st. During his career, Jon Kyl served three full terms in the Senate, choosing not to seek re-election in 2012, in addition to winning four terms in the House.
Gov. Doug Ducey (R) will now name a replacement for Mr. Kyl. The new Senator will serve through 2020 and very likely run in a special election for the right to serve the balance of Mr. McCain’s final term. The seat is next in-cycle for a full six-year term in 2022. Speculation is revolving around outgoing Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson), who lost the open Senate race this year to Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix). Reportedly, some GOP leaders are urging Ducey to look elsewhere since McSally failed to win the statewide election. Another name surfacing is Kirk Adams, the Governor’s former chief of staff and ex-state House Speaker. Some believed that Gov. Ducey would appoint a caretaker so that he could run in the special election, but the Governor has already dispelled such an option. Mr. Ducey reiterated this week that he will serve the entire second term he just won in November. Sen. Cory Gardner (R), possibly the most vulnerable Republican Senator standing for election in 2020 because of his state’s recent leftward electoral lurch, has drawn a second Democratic challenger. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff filed a 2020 US Senate campaign committee late last week, indicating that he intends to become a candidate. Previously, the executive director of the Colorado Statewide Parent Coalition, Lorena Garcia, announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination.
Mr. Romanoff served four terms in the Colorado House of Representatives, leaving the legislature after the 2008 election. He ran unsuccessfully for US Senate in 2010, losing the party nomination to appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). In 2014, Mr. Romanoff challenged Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora), but lost to him in the general election. Others, such as Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden), former state Treasurer and ex-gubernatorial candidate Cary Kennedy, and ex-state Senator and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston are all viewed as possible Democratic Senatorial candidates. Former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos, who was just released from prison after serving a very short sentence for lying to the FBI, says he will run for a California congressional seat in 2020. Mr. Papadopoulos hasn’t chosen a district, however, only saying that it will be one of the Orange County seats. He has six choices, four of which were historically Republican. Considering his controversial past and making a nebulous announcement before even identifying a specific district, Mr. Papadopoulos cannot yet be considered a serious potential Republican candidate.
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