Alabama voters went to the polls yesterday and chose Democrat Doug Jones as the state’s new Senator. He defeated Republican former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore by a 49.9 – 48.4% margin, a spread of slightly more than 20,000 votes. The result defied most of the polling, though the
final Monmouth University survey released yesterday that forecast a 46-46% proved to be the most accurate. Judge Moore failed to solidify enough of the Republican vote, unable to attract normal GOP margins in key suburban counties around Alabama’s most populous metropolitan areas. Turnout was very high, exceeding 1.34 million voters. To put this special election vote into context, the last statewide vote for Governor (2014) drew 1.18 million participants. The 2016 general election recorded over 2.123 million votes. Mr. Jones will serve through 2020, and is eligible to run for a full six-year term at that time. The Senate partisan division now drops to 51R-49D. The outcome here serves as a gateway to the 2018 election and gives the Democrats a path to obtaining the Senate majority next year, something that didn’t exist before Alabama. --Jim Ellis In a state with a large delegation that normally sees little in the way of congressional competition, candidates have come out in droves to run next year. With seven open seats (5R-2D) in the 36-member delegation, Monday’s filing deadline produced a record number of 213 federal political contenders (90 major party candidates in the open seat category alone). Of the 29 incumbents seeking re-election to the House, 27 have opposition. Only two House members, Reps. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) and Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), have no opponent in either the primary or general election. Just eight incumbents are unopposed in their respective nomination election (5R-3D), meaning 21 have at least nominal primary opposition (15R-6D). It remains to be seen how many of these many candidates develop strong campaigns, but it is a sure bet that 2018 will be a more active political year in the Lone Star State.
In the Senate race, first-term incumbent Ted Cruz (R) has drawn primary opposition from four GOP contenders, but none appears particularly strong. He is virtually assured of facing Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) in the general election. The latter man faces only two token Democratic candidates for his party nomination. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has drawn three Republican and twelve Democratic opponents. Mr. Abbott is a prohibitive favorite for re-election, but will likely face either Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez or businessman Andrew White, son of the late former Gov. Mark White (D), in the general election. --Jim Ellis On Friday, the US Supreme Court announced that it would hear the redistricting lawsuit that Maryland Republicans are bringing, challenging the state’s current congressional boundaries as being a political gerrymander. The court has already heard a similar case from Wisconsin. States awaiting that decision, which should be issued before the end of April, are North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia (for the state legislature). Should the high court side with the plaintiffs in either Wisconsin or Maryland, the possibility exists that some political boundaries could be re-drawn before the 2018 election. Such an exercise would have a major effect upon how the current election cycle unfolds.
--Jim Ellis Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced yesterday the special election schedule to fill the seat that former Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria/Glendale) resigned last week. The party primaries will be held February 27th, with the special general to follow on April 24th. The winner will serve until the end of the year. The new Congressman will then assuredly file on May 30th to run for a full term, thus entering the regular 2018 August 28th primary election campaign with the succeeding general election on November 6th. Republicans should hold this seat. President Trump carried the district 58-37%, and Rep. Franks averaged 63.7% in his eight winning congressional elections. Now that the election schedule is set, candidates are coming forward to officially enter the race.
Former state Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump (R) has announced his candidacy. Interestingly, Mr. Stump is reportedly not related to the late former US Rep. Bob Stump (R-AZ) who represented this region from 1977-2003. Also in the race, with Rep. Franks’ endorsement, is state Sen. Steve Montenegro (R-Avondale), a former staff member for the outgoing Congressman. But, the Senator’s district only barely overlaps the 8th Congressional, giving Montenegro a very small base within the CD he is seeking. --Jim Ellis At long last the voters go to the polls today in the Yellowhammer State to choose a permanent replacement for resigned Alabama Senator and now US Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R). Polls are all over the board in the final days. The preponderance of data gives Republican former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore an edge over ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D), but one key survey comes to the clear opposite conclusion. The last three studies: Emerson College (12/7-9; 600 AL likely special election voters), Monmouth University (12/6-9; 546 AL likely special election voters), and Fox News (12/7-10; 1,408 AL registered voters; 1,127 AL likely special election voters) provide very different ballot test results.
Emerson College finds Judge Moore leading, 53-44%; Monmouth sees a tie between the two men, with both registering 46% support; and, Fox News surprisingly forecasts Mr. Jones leading, 50-40%. It has always been clear that turnout will determine the outcome today, and these polls certainly suggest such is the case. --Jim Ellis Yesterday evening was the deadline to file for federal and state office in the Lone Star State in preparation for next year’s first in the nation March 6th primary. Illinois has also closed its filing, but that state’s primary isn’t until March 20th.
Since the candidates file with their respective political party and not with a government entity, it takes some time for the official candidate list to become available. Drawing the most attention will be the seven open congressional seats featuring five Republican and two Democratic districts. --Jim Ellis Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has issued the special election calendar to fill resigned Rep. John Conyers’ (D-Detroit) seat. The Governor’s decision means the seat will be vacant for virtually one year. The 13th District special election will run concurrently with the regular election schedule, meaning the primary will be August 7th, with the special and regular general elections occurring on the same date, November 6, 2018. State Sens. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit), the former Congressman’s nephew, and Coleman Young II (D-Detroit), son of former Mayor Coleman Young, are both announced candidates. The latter man is fresh from being destroyed in the 2017 Detroit Mayor’s race, losing to incumbent Mike Duggan, 72-27%.
--Jim Ellis Bech Bruun, chairman of the Texas Water Development Board, announced that he will challenge embattled Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) in the Republican primary. With candidate filing closing today, it appears that Mr. Bruun will be the top Republican challenger to Mr. Farenthold, who is under attack for an earlier taxpayer-paid sexual harassment settlement. If Bruun can amass sufficient campaign resources, this can become a highly competitive nomination campaign. More will be known after the results of today’s filing become public.
--Jim Ellis Things are beginning to unfold a bit differently than expected about replacing soon-to-resign Sen. Al Franken (D-MN). Gov. Mark Dayton (D) appeared set to appoint Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D), with the idea that she would serve as a caretaker. Many believed he would move immediately, but the Governor has since backed away from making an overly quick appointment. According to a Daily Kos Elections blog report, Ms. Smith is apparently indicating that she would be interested in running for the seat, which has given the Governor pause.
Among Republicans who might be interested in running in the 2018 special election, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is reportedly not completely closing the door to entering the race. US Reps. Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) and Tom Emmer (R-Delano), House Speaker Kurt Daudt (R-Crown), and state Sens. Julie Rosen (R-Vernon Center/ Mankato), and Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point/Lake St. Croix Beach) are part of a group of individuals being mentioned as possible special election candidates. The appointed individual serves until the next regular election, at which time a special is held. The election winner then serves the balance of Franken’s term, which runs through the 2020 election. The newly elected Senator will be eligible to run for a full six-year term in 2020. --Jim Ellis Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, the President and chief executive officer of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, says she will announce her congressional candidacy this week in anticipation of incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) departing to run for the Senate. Ms. Marquez Peterson says she has no intention of running against Rep. McSally, however, an office holder whom she supports. In an open seat configuration, this seat will be highly competitive. Eight Democrats, including former 1st District US Representative and 2016 US Senate nominee Ann Kirkpatrick, are in the race. Former state Rep. Matt Heinz, the 2016 congressional nominee who fell to Rep. McSally, 43-57%, and ex-state Rep. Bruce Wheeler are also among the candidates vying for the party nomination.
--Jim Ellis |
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