Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) is apparently also succumbing to pressure from multiple sexual harassment accusations against him and is expected to announce today that he will not seek a second term next year. Mr. Kihuen had previously said he would not resign when one woman came forward to levy her allegations. Now that at least one more has done so, he has decided to end his current congressional tenure after this legislative session adjourns.
The 4th District occupies northern Clark County and six other central rural Nevada counties. The seat leans Democratic, but Republicans have proven success in the region, as well. The Kihuen departure means that there are now 43 open or vacant seats in the House to be filled in the subsequent election. Within the 43, Republicans hold 28 seats compared to the Democrats now having 15. --Jim Ellis The Massachusetts candidate filing deadline is still over six months away, but already 13 Democrats have announced for the party nomination to run in the open 3rd District. The field includes businessman Keith St. John, who declared his candidacy this weekend. In August, Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) announced that she would not seek a seventh term, which set the political machinations into motion. The field includes Daniel Koh, the former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, state Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover), state Rep. Juana Matias (D-Lawrence), former Ambassador Rufus Gifford, and nine businessmen, local officials, and activists. Democrats will likely hold the seat, but the September 18th primary will be a free-for-all.
--Jim Ellis The Politico publication ran a story yesterday that quoted unnamed aides as saying the Speaker would very likely leave his leadership position after the 2018 election, and speculated that he would also leave the House. It is important to note that Speaker Ryan, himself, has made no such public claim. Therefore, it is unclear if the Speaker will seek re-election to the House. If he does not, Wisconsin’s 1st District could become the site of a highly competitive open seat. Though President Trump carried the district by ten percentage points, the Republican ticket, with Mr. Ryan as the Vice Presidential nominee, scored only a four-point victory margin.
At the end of September, Mr. Ryan’s likely Democratic opponent, labor union activist Randy Bryce, had already raised more than $1 million for the effort. With a Republican nominee other than Speaker Ryan, the Democrats in the person of Mr. Bryce, could actually begin with a slight advantage. --Jim Ellis Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D), soon to replace resigning Sen. Al Franken (D) after the latter resigns his seat, is already well on her way to becoming the Democratic nominee for the 2018 special election to fill the seat to which she will be appointed. Minnesota election law calls for an appointment to be made, and then the seat going to special election to allow the people to choose the individual who will serve the balance of the current term. In this case, the 2018 election victor will occupy the Senate seat until the end of 2020 and be eligible to run for a full six-year term in the next regular election (2020).
A day after accepting Gov. Mark Dayton’s (D) appointment and saying publicly that she would run for the seat in 2018, the individuals comprising the Minnesota Democratic congressional delegation all endorsed her efforts. Reps. Tim Walz (D-Mankato), Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul), Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes), and Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth), all followed Rep. Keith Ellison’s (D-Minneapolis) lead and pledged their support to Senate-Designate Smith. Since Minnesota is a largely a convention state, the entire congressional delegation already being on board to support the new Senator will go a long way to allowing her to easily secure the Democratic nomination in next April’s state convention. --Jim Ellis Calendar: With several resignations occurring during the past two weeks, today marks a good time to review the upcoming special election calendar, now that most Governor’s have scheduled the vacancy replacement votes:
January 31: OH-12 – Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Galena) resigning by this date Gov. John Kasich (R) will then schedule the replacement special election 2/27 & 4/24: AZ-8 – replacing resigned Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria) Special primary: February 27th – Partisan nomination elections Special general: April 24th Mar/Apr/Nov: MN-Senate – replacing resigned Sen. Al Franken (D) Republican Convention: to be scheduled in March Democratic Convention: to be scheduled in April Special primary: August 14th – concurrent with regular primary if any candidates force a primary election Special general: November 6th – concurrent with regular general election March 13: PA-18 – replacing resigned Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh) Special general: State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) vs. Attorney Conor Lamb (D) 8/7 & 11/6: MI-13 – replacing resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) Special primary: August 7th – concurrent with regular partisan primary vote Special general: November 6th – concurrent with regular general election --Jim Ellis Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) announced yesterday that he will end his re-election campaign amid continuing sexual harassment claims. Mr. Farenthold had previously filed for a fifth term, but will instead retire from the House at the end of the current Congress. Before candidate filing concluded, Rep. Farenthold drew a credible Republican primary challenger in the person of former Texas Water Development Board chairman Bech Bruun. Despite five other Republicans being in the race, Mr. Bruun now becomes the favorite to carry the new open seat.
The 27th District that stretches from Corpus Christi all the way to the outskirts of Austin is safely Republican. President Trump won the district in a 60-36% margin. Four years earlier, Mitt Romney carried the seat, 60-38%. The Farenthold departure means that there are now 42 open or vacant seats in the House to be filled in the subsequent election. Within the 42, Republicans hold 28 seats as compared to the Democrats’ 14. --Jim Ellis As we know, Alabama voters went to the polls on Tuesday to elect Democrat Doug Jones in the special US Senate race. Though several columnists are attempting to make this race a referendum on President Trump and the Republicans’ ability to hold the US House next year, the actual numbers, when comparing with past voting history, tend to show Republican defection to Mr. Jones as the principle reason for the win and not a massive increase in Democratic turnout.
Special election voter participation exceeded the last midterm turnout level by 13.9% when compared to the 2014 election. In the 13 base Democratic counties where the electorate favored gubernatorial challenger Parker Griffith over Republican incumbent Robert Bentley despite the latter man’s landslide statewide total, 2017 major party turnout was up 11.3%. But, this is 2½ points below the increased statewide turnout rate. Additionally, in the four statewide races in the 2014 and ’16 elections, contested Republican candidates all recorded between 62-64% of the statewide vote. This contrasts with Republican nominee (Roy) Moore’s 48.4%, again suggesting that Republican defection to Jones is likely the more salient reason to best explain the Democratic victory. --Jim Ellis Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton (D), as expected, selected Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D) to replace resigning Sen. Al Franken (D). It was originally thought that Ms. Smith would serve as a caretaker incumbent, but the Lt. Governor’s acceptance statement communicated that she has made the opposite decision. In her public comments, Ms. Smith already declared herself as a candidate for the 2018 special election; hence, she will compete to serve the balance of the current term. Candidates can next run for a full six-year term in 2020. Sen. Franken is now indicating that he will officially resign in “early January.”
--Jim Ellis One of the most vulnerable Republican freshmen seeking re-election in 2018 is Upstate New York’s Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford). With a win percentage of just 44% in a three-way race, Rep. Tenney has already drawn a substantial opponent in state Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica). Yesterday, however, Ms. Tenney caught a break when Republican primary opponent Nicholas Wan, who hails from the Trump wing of the NY GOP, announced he is withdrawing from the race due to fundraising problems. A unified Republican base is critical for Rep. Tenney to defend herself against what will prove to be a difficult Democratic challenge.
--Jim Ellis Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is now scheduled to announce his choice to replace resigning Sen. Al Franken (D) later today. The prevailing wisdom remains that he will select Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D), but it will be an interesting to see how the Lt. Governor answers the question about whether she will run in the 2018 special election. Originally, it was thought Ms. Smith would serve as a caretaker, but recent speculation suggested that she might desire to run for a full term. Her status in the coming special election will certainly be addressed as part of today’s announcement event. Sen. Franken has still not indicated the exact date when he will leave the Senate, continuing to say it will be in the “coming weeks.”
--Jim Ellis |
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