Florida: Second Major Dem Announces: Former health care company executive Stanley Campbell, who has the ability to at least partially fund his statewide campaign, formally announced yesterday that he will enter the Florida US Senate Democratic primary. Mr. Campbell will face former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the August 20th primary election. Nine other Democrats have also declared their candidacies, but it appears that Mr. Campbell and Ms. Mucarsel Powell are the two most credible contenders. The winner will then face Sunshine State Sen. Rick Scott (R) in what will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.
Montana: Sheehy Leads Rosendale in GOP Primary Poll: A new Fabrizio Lee statewide Montana survey (10/23-25; 600 MT likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds that US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), despite holding Sen. Jon Tester (D) to a 50-47% victory margin in 2018, is no lock to win the 2024 Senate Republican nomination. According to the Fabrizio Lee data, aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, the Republican leadership’s choice, is already topping Mr. Rosendale among Republican primary voters. The full ballot test, that also includes GOP candidates Brad Johnson and Jeremy Mygland, projects Mr. Sheehy to be holding a 38-35-6-1% edge over Congressman Rosendale and Messrs. Johnson and Mygland, respectively. In a head-to-head hypothetical pairing, Mr. Sheehy holds a 44-41% margin over Rep. Rosendale. Mr. Sheehy, who announced his Senate candidacy in late June has been working the state and is on the air with an early television buy. Rep. Rosendale three weeks ago said he will decide whether to run for the Senate when Montana’s candidate filing deadline closes on March 11th. Louisiana: Court Assigns Redistricting Deadline: The three-judge federal Louisiana panel that affirmed the current Bayou State congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, has given the legislature until January 15th to produce a map that creates a second African American influenced district. The deadline is actually much shorter unless current Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) calls the legislature back into session. If he does not, incoming Gov. Jeff Landry (R) will have to act immediately since he will not be sworn into office until January 8th. Before winning his election outright in October, Gov-Elect Landry was Louisiana’s Attorney General and previously a US Congressman. He served only one term in the House when his seat was collapsed because Louisiana lost a seat in the 2010 national reapportionment.
NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Dem Primary Challenger Gains Strength: Freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) appears headed for a legitimate primary challenge battle. Mr. Menendez is the only member of the New Jersey delegation who has stood up for embattled Sen. Bob Menendez, who is the Congressman’s father. Immediately upon the Menendez indictment being announced in late September, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bholla declared his congressional candidacy in the Democratic primary to oppose the younger Menendez. The latest information proves Mr. Bholla is a serious candidate. The New Jersey Globe newspaper reports that the Mayor has already raised over $500,000 for his campaign. Therefore, this June 4th primary has legitimate upset potential. TX-4: Rep. Fallon Changes Mind About Retirement: Two days ago, Texas Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco) declared that he would not seek re-election to the US House and instead filed papers to run for the state Senate seat that he vacated to run for Congress. Yesterday, however, he announced a change of heart and will run for re-election after all. Rep. Fallon will have little trouble winning a third term despite his equivocation about what office to seek. Therefore, take TX-4 off the open seat list. Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott yesterday announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.
The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the Governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race. MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced: Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2% renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, officially announced yesterday that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or will give Mr. Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.
Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither of these had raised even $55,000 through the September 30th campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for August 13, 2024. NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts: Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Mr. Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro). Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Mr. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Mr. Walker abandoned his long shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms. TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election: As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress. Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference. VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor: Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced yesterday that she will run for Governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports over $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferrable to a Virginia state campaign. Without Ms. Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Ohio: Another Close Poll: The Data for Progress research organization released their new Ohio Senate poll that differs wildly from the Ohio Northern University (ONU) survey results published in mid-October. The DfP poll (10/31-11/2; 597 OH likely voters; online) finds virtual ties for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with all three major Republican primary contenders. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose does the best among the Republicans, tying Sen. Brown at 46% apiece. Opposite state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), the Senator holds just a one-point, 47-46%, edge. His margin opposite businessman Bernie Moreno is only three points, 47-44%.
These results contrast with the ONU data that yielded Sen. Brown margins between 13 and 22 points against the same GOP opponents. The Data for Progress results, however, are more consistent with other polls conducted for this race. The Ohio campaign will be one of the nation’s top 2024 US Senate race and is considered a virtual must-win campaign for the GOP if the party is going to wrest the chamber majority away from the Democrats. OH-2: Rep. Wenstrup to Retire: Six-term Ohio US Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) announced via video message on Friday that he will not be seeking re-election in 2024. Mr. Wenstrup first came to Congress in 2012 when he scored an upset victory over then-Rep. Jean Schmidt in that year’s Republican primary. The Congressman has not been seriously challenged since.
Ohio’s 2nd District contains all or parts of 16 southern counties that stretch from the eastern Cincinnati suburbs all the way to West Virginia. Republicans will have little trouble holding the district as an open seat and Mr. Wenstrup’s successor will be determined in the March 19th GOP primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+49. Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a whopping 72-27% majority. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-2 as the 13th safest Republican seat in the GOP Conference. NY-26: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) Will Resign: New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) clarified over the weekend that he will resign from the House in February in order to become president of the Shea’s Performing Arts Center in his home city of Buffalo. Rep. Higgins was first elected in 2004 from a 26th District that includes two-thirds of Erie County and almost three-quarters of Niagara County. The Democrats should have little trouble holding this district, though a new open seat in western New York could influence what is likely a second round of redistricting to come early next year. Therefore, the confines of the Buffalo anchored district could change. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 61.4D – 36.1R partisan lean. President Biden recorded a 61-37% win here in the 2020 election. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks this district as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. WA-6: Rep. Kilmer Won’t Seek Re-Election: Another six-term US House member also announced his retirement on Friday. Washington Congressman Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) will leave the House after what will be twelve years in office at the end of the current Congress. Rep. Kilmer indicated in his retirement announcement that it is time for a new challenge. Washington’s 6th District encompasses the Olympic Peninsula, the large area west of Seattle and the Puget Sound that stretches to the Pacific Ocean. The 6th is reliably Democratic, and the August partisan primary will likely determine Mr. Kilmer’s successor. Before Rep. Kilmer won the seat in 2012, then-Rep. Norm Dicks (D) held the 6th District for 36 years. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-6 as D+10, but Dave’s Redistricting App suggests a stronger 55.8D – 42.4R partisan lean advantage. President Biden won the 6th District constituency with a 57-40% victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WA-6 as the 57th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Minnesota: State Supreme Court OKs Trump for Primary Ballot: Ruling on a 14th Amendment lawsuit attempting to bar former President Trump from the ballot saying he incited an “insurrection” even though he or no January 6th convicted defendant was even charged with insurrection against the Constitution, the Minnesota State Supreme Court ruled yesterday that he will be placed on the Republican primary ballot. The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Mr. Trump win the Republican presidential nomination. Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.
In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes…[a]nd there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.” The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle relating to the general election. AR-3: Rep. Womack to Face GOP Primary Challenge: Yesterday, Arkansas state Senator Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) announced that he will challenge seven-term Congressman Steve Womack (R-Rogers). During his tenure in the House, Mr. Womack served briefly as chairman of the House Budget Committee. Immediately, in a show of support, Sen. Tom Cotton (R), Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), and US Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) announced their endorsements of the incumbent. It remains to be seen if this challenge becomes a serious effort. The Arkansas primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Virginia: Numbers Becoming Final: The final votes are being reported in the Virginia legislative elections, and the party division numbers look to be 21-19 in the Democrats’ favor for the incoming state Senate, and a 51-49 Democratic majority in the House of Delegates. The final numbers are slightly better for Republicans, but Democrats now control both houses in the General Assembly instead of just one.
Houston: Mayoral Runoff Set; Outgoing Mayor Endorses: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) confirmed that the Houston mayoral runoff election will be held on December 9th. The runoff winner will earn a four-year term as America’s fourth largest city’s chief executive. Immediately after the election, outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner (D), ineligible to seek a third term, endorsed US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). She placed second to state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) in Tuesday’s initial election. Neither candidate received majority support to secure the election, hence the need for a head-to-head second vote.
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