Senate – 11/15/23

Florida:  Second Major Dem Announces:  Former health care company executive Stanley Campbell, who has the ability to at least partially fund his statewide campaign, formally announced yesterday that he will enter the Florida US Senate Democratic primary.  Mr. Campbell will face former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the August 20th primary election.  Nine other Democrats have also declared their candidacies, but it appears that Mr. Campbell and Ms. Mucarsel Powell are the two most credible contenders.  The winner will then face Sunshine State Sen. Rick Scott (R) in what will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.

Montana:  Sheehy Leads Rosendale in GOP Primary Poll:  A new Fabrizio Lee statewide Montana survey (10/23-25; 600 MT likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds that US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), despite holding Sen. Jon Tester (D) to a 50-47% victory margin in 2018, is no lock to win the 2024 Senate Republican nomination.

According to the Fabrizio Lee data, aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, the Republican leadership’s choice, is already topping Mr. Rosendale among Republican primary voters.  The full ballot test, that also includes GOP candidates Brad Johnson and Jeremy Mygland, projects Mr. Sheehy to be holding a 38-35-6-1% edge over Congressman Rosendale and Messrs. Johnson and Mygland, respectively.  In a head-to-head hypothetical pairing, Mr. Sheehy holds a 44-41% margin over Rep. Rosendale. 
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Mr. Sheehy, who announced his Senate candidacy in late June has been working the state and is on the air with an early television buy.  Rep. Rosendale three weeks ago said he will decide whether to run for the Senate when Montana’s candidate filing deadline closes on March 11th.