Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli has officially conceded the 2021 New Jersey campaign, but immediately announced his intention to run again in 2025 when Gov. Phil Murphy (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s maximum service law. The final vote totals yield a 51-48% victory spread for Governor Murphy, a vote spread of just under 75,000 votes statewide from a turnout of over 2.57 million votes. The participation level represents an increase of more than 500,000 cast ballots, an uptick exceeding 19%, when compared to the 2017 gubernatorial result.
Though Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is retiring, he still has over $9.7 million in his campaign account according to his September 30th Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report. Apparently, he is going to use just over half of that money to help his former chief of staff, Katie Britt, succeed him in the Senate.
Reports indicate that the Senator will donate $5 million from his campaign to a Super PAC in support of Ms. Britt, who has already raised $3.76 million for her own campaign. After leaving Sen. Shelby’s staff, Katie Britt became the CEO of the Alabama Business Council. She is opposing US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) and former US Ambassador Lynda Blanchard in the Republican primary. Now that Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has announced he will not challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the 2022 Senate race, opting instead to run for a fourth term as New Hampshire’s Governor, speculation is beginning as to who may run. Talk has included both 1st Congressional District candidates: Gail Huff Brown, wife of former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown, and 2020 nominee Matt Mowers. Either, or both, could possibly switch to the statewide race. Another name, that of state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem), is an individual who former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Mr. Brown are reportedly encouraging to run.
Earlier in the year, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) indicated that he would decide whether or not to seek a third term in the Autumn. Reporters pushing him for an answer yesterday were told that the decision is still “several weeks away.” Regardless if Sen. Johnson runs or not, the Wisconsin race will become a highly competitive political battle.
Now that potential candidates have had a chance to analyze the new North Carolina congressional map, moves are being made. Former Fayetteville Mayor Nat Robertson (R) is the first to announce his candidacy in what is cast as a new open lean Republican seat that includes Democratic Fayetteville, but also heavily Republican Johnston County. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statistical site, the county configuration that now comprises the new CD-4 would have backed former President Trump’s 2020 campaign in a 53-46% count.
On the Democratic side, five-term state Sen. Ben Clark (D-Hoke County) has filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission but says he has not yet made a final decision to run for Congress. Western North Carolina freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville) announced his plans to seek re-election in the new strongly Republican 13th District instead of the more competitive 14th, in which he and the vast majority of his current constituents reside. Three of Rep. Cawthorn’s 11th CD’s best Republican counties, Polk, Rutherford, and McDowell were placed in new District 13, ostensibly designed for state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County). Speaker Moore, however, announced late yesterday that he would seek re-election next year as Speaker instead of running for Congress. It remains to be seen who decides to also enter the CD 13 campaign.
A new Civiqs poll (10/31-11/5; 799 PA likely primary voters; online panel) finds Iraq War veteran and 2020 congressional candidate Sean Parnell developing a substantial lead in the open Republican US Senate primary, but that could be short lived. According to the poll results, Mr. Parnell would have a 31-8-7-6-2% advantage over former US Ambassador Carla Sands, ex-congressional nominee Kathy Barnette, 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Jeff Bartos, and attorney Sean Gale, respectively. Simultaneously, however, Mr. Parnell’s ex-wife is leveling serious domestic and child abuse accusations against him in a child custody trial, all of which he denies.
On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has opened up a whopping 52-12-5-2% lead over US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh), state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. Two-term Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is not seeking re-election. Former Congressman Mark Walker (R), who is significantly behind front runners Pat McCrory, the state’s former Governor, and US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) is reportedly considering instead running in the new open 7th District House seat that contains part of his former district and is Republican friendly.
Mr. Walker, who represented the Greensboro area in the US House for three terms but was drawn into an unfavorable seat when the state Supreme Court issued a new set of congressional district lines before the last election in the decade, has yet to make a significant movement in the open Senate primary but would be a formidable candidate in the new House district. Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), who represents part of this new 7th District is expected to run in the new 11th CD and opposite Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). As reported earlier, the new Iowa congressional map places Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Ottumwa) and Cindy Axne’s (D-Des Moines) residences in the same congressional district. To avoid an incumbent pairing in new District 3, Rep. Miller-Meeks, as expected, announced yesterday that she will run in the new 1st District, a slightly Republican seat that contains most of her current constituency. The new 1st, as was Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 2nd District, is anchored in Davenport and Iowa City.
State Attorney General Leslie Rutledge (R), who was faring very poorly in Republican gubernatorial polling opposite former White House Communications Director Sarah Sanders, the daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R), has ended her bid for Governor. Instead, Ms. Rutledge will enter the open Lt. Governor’s race. Interestingly, incumbent Lt. Governor Tim Griffin (R) is running for Ms. Rutledge’s open AG position. The developments leave Ms. Sanders unopposed in an open race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, a primary victory that is proving tantamount to winning the succeeding general election.
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