Fifteen-term Texas Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas), chair of the House Science Committee, indicated before the 2020 election that this would be her last term in the House. She has scheduled a “special announcement” for Saturday that many now believe will be a re-election announcement since the Congresswoman has refused to confirm her retirement when questioned. Several potential candidates for the safely Democratic Dallas anchored seat are waiting to run in case she does announce that she will step down.
Senate President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy (D-VT), first elected in 1974, announced that he will not seek a ninth term next year in a bit of a surprise announcement yesterday. Earlier indications suggested he would run again, though he never publicly committed to doing so.
When he completes the current term, Sen. Leahy, who will be 82 years of age at the next election, will be third longest-serving Senator in United States history. Ahead of him then will be only the late Sens. Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Daniel Inouye (D-HI). During his long career, he chaired the Agriculture and Judiciary Committees. Currently, he heads the Senate Appropriations Committee. Prior to being elected to the Senate, Mr. Leahy served as State’s Attorney for Chittenden County in Vermont. He also becomes the first Democrat not to seek re-election in the current Senate election cycle. Despite redistricting that will greatly change the current 8th Congressional District, state Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) announced that he will challenge two-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) even though the seat might become more Democratic. The Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission members have published about a dozen maps for public comment. They are expected to adopt a final plan on or about December 29th. Until then, it is difficult to assess any of the Michigan political situations since the state, losing a congressional seat in reapportionment, could witness drastic political changes coming forth.
Ex-state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D), who held Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) to a 53-47% re-election victory in the current 8th Congressional District, yesterday released a statement saying she would not become a candidate in new District 4, the open lean Republican district that includes the city of Fayetteville and Cumberland County.
Redistricting has been completed in Idaho, as the redistricting commission members have sent the congressional map to the Secretary of State for certification. With two districts, only 35,338 people need to move from the 1st District to the 2nd, and that transfer will occur in the Boise area. The fact that both seats will house more than 919,000 residents suggest that Idaho may be in line for a new seat come the 2030 census.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) says he will sign the congressional and state legislative maps that are now on his desk. The congressional map will lock in the Republicans’ 4R-0D advantage. The Nevada state Senate passed the congressional map in their special session, sending the legislation for approval in the state Assembly. The map is expected to pass and Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) will likely sign the legislation. The plan will likely strengthen the state’s 3D-1R political margin. As expected, yesterday former Congressman and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) announced his challenge to two-term Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Prior to running for President, Mr. O’Rourke lost the Texas Senate race to incumbent Ted Cruz (R) by a 51-48% margin. He then launched an ill-fated campaign for President.
Mr. O’Rourke was first elected to the US House in 2012, defeating then-Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso) in the Democratic primary. Prior to serving his three terms in the House, Mr. O’Rourke was an elected member of the El Paso City Council, a position he held for six years. With all of the ballots counted in the South Florida special Democratic congressional primary, businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is the unofficial five-vote winner over Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness. The results will now go through the certification process. The final vote total shows Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick, who challenged the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Delray Beach) in the 2020 Democratic primary and lost 69-31%, recording 11,662 votes to Mr. Holness’ 11,657. A total of 11 candidates were on the primary ballot.
Mr. Holness may continue to challenge the results, or he could wait and file in the regular 2022 Democratic primary scheduled for August 23rd should he want to again run for Congress. Upon certification, Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick will advance to the special general election on January 11th. The winner of that race, almost assuredly she in this safely Democratic seat, will serve the balance of the current term. Her election will end the special election cycle and bring the House to its full compliment of 435 members for the first time in this Congress. Quelling speculation that she might challenge Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) announced on Friday that she will seek re-election to the House in the new 3rd District. The new redistricting map paired Reps. Axne and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), but the latter member announced earlier in the week that she would seek re-election in new District 1.
We can expect a competitive campaign in the 3rd District. Under the new lines, former President Trump would have carried the seat, 49.3 - 48.9%, and Rep. Axne has not reached 49% in her two plurality congressional victories. The new boundaries yield a slightly more Republican voting history than her previous district. State Sen. Brad Zaun (R-Urbandale) leads a field of four potential GOP challengers. The Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission, on a 3-2 vote with a Democratic member supporting the Republican plan, adopted the state’s new two-district congressional map.
The western district, the 1st, will include the cities of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, and Kalispell. The eastern 2nd District, where current at-large Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will seek re-election, houses the state’s largest city of Billings, Helena, and Great Falls. Former Interior Secretary and ex-Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) is viewed as the leading candidate in the open western 1st District. The new MT-1 would have supported former President Donald Trump with a 52-45% margin. The 2nd CD is more Republican, backing Trump 62-35%. Both houses of Wisconsin’s Republican legislature passed congressional and state legislative maps late last week, but Gov. Tony Evers (D), as expected, announced that he will veto all of the plans. This means Wisconsin will have a court-drawn map. Each party has already filed lawsuits attempting to claim jurisdiction. The Republicans filed in state court, the Democrats in federal. Wisconsin kept all eight of its seats in reapportionment.
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