Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs), who at one time was down almost 9,000 votes in the election count, has now rebounded to take a 419 vote lead in the only House race in the country where the Republican candidate made substantial gains in political overtime. The tabulation is still not complete, but the outlook now points to a likely ending in which Ms. Love will win a close final vote. Her Democratic opponent is Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams.
One more race appears to have ended, this one in the Atlanta suburbs. With virtually all of the races in political overtime going to the Democrats, this seat has reversed the trend. Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville), who many believed approached this campaign in lackluster fashion, has won re-election pending a possible recount. His victory margin is just 419 votes, however. The Democratic nominee, former state Senate Budget Committee staff director Carolyn Bourdeaux, has yet to concede and will likely call for a full recount.
Eleven days after the general election, Georgia election authorities certified that Republican Brian Kemp secured a majority vote, at 50.3%, which elects him Governor of Georgia. Mr. Kemp defeats former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) who is acknowledging the result, but says she is not conceding because of what she charges as voter suppression maneuvers coming from the Secretary of State’s office, of which Mr. Kemp was the elected principal until he resigned shortly after the election.
There was no doubt the final count would find Mr. Kemp in first place, but the question was whether he would secure majority support. Under Georgia law, if a candidate does not obtain a majority, a post-election run-off must be held. Therefore, the idea of the vote challenges was not in the guise of believing that enough votes existed to place Ms. Abrams ahead of Mr. Kemp, but rather that he would be pushed below 50%. In the end, Kemp finished with 17,000 votes beyond a simple majority. Though the race was one of the closest gubernatorial elections in Georgia history, the victor still garnered more votes for the office than anyone previously elected. On Election Day, Allentown City Solicitor Susan Wild defeated Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein (R) to claim the newly drawn 7th District with a sizable 53-44% margin. But, there were actually two elections that involved the candidates. When Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) resigned from Congress, he left vacant the 15th District drawn under the 2011 boundaries. Therefore, though the former 15th and the new 7th are vastly different, they do contain some common territory. Thus, both Wild and Nothstein entered the special election in the former 15th to serve the balance of the current term, and the new 7th for the full term.
Over the weekend, it was determined that Ms. Wild has now won both, though the 15th CD election was very close decided by three-tenths of one percentage point. With that result now final, Ms. Wild will immediately be sworn into the House. Though this race has not yet been officially called, it is appearing more likely that Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) will become yet another Republican casualty of the California vote. Now falling behind challenger Katie Porter (D) by just under 4,000 votes, the swing toward the Democrat has eclipsed 10,000 votes since the post-Election Day counting began. There could still reasonably be about 75,000 votes still to count, but the trends here favor a Porter victory.
If the open 39th District contest between Young Kim (R) and Gil Cisneros (D) also goes Democratic, although that election is still within 1,000 votes and Ms. Kim leading, the party will have converted six Republican seats in California alone when all of the counting is finally complete at the end of the month. The TX-23 campaign result has been the most difficult to read. On election night, Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) had been projected as the winner. Later in the evening, the projection was rescinded, only to be reinstated. Now, with Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones challenging some ballots, the race appears to be undecided once again. The current count stands with Rep. Hurd holding an 1,150 vote edge over Ms. Jones from over 209,000 votes cast.
As expected, the Ranked Choice Voter system that allows people who vote for minor candidates to effectively have more voting power than those who support major party candidates changed the outcome of Maine’s 2nd District campaign. Now, Democratic state Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will be declared the victor by just under 3,000 votes, as the second and third choices from the voters who supported the two independent candidates were factored in to the major party totals. The incumbent, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor), as we stated here earlier this week, has already filed a lawsuit against the instant run-off procedure.
When casting their ballots in Maine federal races, voters are asked to rank their choices. If no candidate receives majority support on the first vote, the last place candidate’s ballots are then recovered to determine how his or her voters ranked the other candidates. Those new votes are then added to the other candidates’ totals. If all are still under 50%, the new last place finisher’s ballots are recovered, and the same process is applied. This procedure continues until the ranked votes puts another candidate over the 50% mark. The state Supreme Court has already ruled that this process cannot be applied to state races. Mr. Poliquin is now asking a federal court to declare the system unconstitutional. State Attorney General and former US Congressman Jeff Landry (R), who appeared to be preparing a challenge to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) next year, announced yesterday that he will seek re-election to his current position. The move sends yet another signal that Sen. John Kennedy (R) will enter the race. Earlier in the week, Mr. Landry said he would not run for Governor if Mr. Kennedy chose to make the race.
The Senator has said he will make his political plans known before December 1st, but all indications now point to him running for Governor. Not having to run for re-election until 2022, Sen. Kennedy does not have to risk his Senate seat to run in the 2019 state contest. In a lead for congressional challenger Ben McAdams (D), the Salt Lake County Mayor, that had grown almost to 9,000 votes, Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) appeared in grave danger of losing the congressional seat that she has represented for four years. But, post-election counting from the rural areas has seen her storm back, and she is now within 1,229 votes of Mr. McAdams. At this point, Ms. Love is filing a lawsuit to halt the remaining counting and further requests that signature verification begin of each mailed ballot. Approximately 40,000 votes remain uncounted. Models are present suggesting that each candidate could ultimately win, but the more likely victor remains Mr. McAdams.
On Tuesday, it was learned that Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) was filing suit in federal court in an attempt to stop the instant run-off, or Ranked Choice Voting system, that the state has employed to ensure the winning candidate draws majority support. While Mr. Poliquin finished ahead of Democrat Jared Golden by almost 2,000 votes but only secured 46% of the total ballots cast, it is assumed that he will lose the instant run-off vote. Therefore, the Congressman made his legal move to attempt to prevent the count from occurring while the federal court decides the constitutionality of a system that gives certain people more than one vote.
Secretary of State Matt Dunlap said he would begin the count unless a court order prevented him from doing so. With no such order yet present, Mr. Dunlap announced that the count will likely finish today, thus proving a setback to Mr. Poliquin’s chances of preventing the instant run-off from changing the Election Day results. We can expect Mr. Golden to be declared the winner by week’s end, and then a protracted court proceeding will ensue over whether the Ranked Choice Voting system is constitutional. |
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