One of the remaining outstanding House races is now final. A machine recount actually increased Rep. Rob Woodall’s (R-Lawrenceville) meager 419 vote margin to 433 votes. Former state Senate Budget committee director Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) conceded the result and offered the Congressman her congratulations. The final tally finds Woodall winning 140,443 to 140,010.
Though the 2020 primary/caucus election schedule is far from being finalized, at least ten states are considering moving their primary or caucus date to the election calendar’s beginning stage, which could mean starting their early voting to coincide with the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary.
Officials in Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Vermont are reportedly all looking at early delegate selection dates. By party rule for both Democrats and Republicans, the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucus, and South Carolina primary must be the initial scheduled events, but the aforementioned states appear ready to encroach upon the First Four’s domain. Though the major media networks projected Rep. David Valadao (R-Bakersfield) as the winner soon after the election ended, California’s marathon post-election counting process may be producing another upset. Since all of the post-counting has favored the Democrats’ in the Golden State, and the 21st District is no exception, the final result may revolve around just how many of the provisional ballots will actually qualify to be counted.
Currently, Mr. Valadao’s margin has dropped to 930 votes from 103,232 counted ballots with an undetermined number of provisional ballots to potentially add. Since the provisionals are reported by county and the 21st District is comprised of parts of four counties, it is difficult to say just how many votes remain for this particular contest. Though the outcome still favors Rep. Valadao, the provisional ballots could become a political wild card. Indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) was one of the few Republican incumbents to survive a California House campaign. The Democrats gained six seats in the delegation, and the party division in the state is now comprised of 45 Democrats and just eight Republicans.
This week, Temecula Mayor Matt Rahn (R) announced that he will become a congressional candidate in District 50 for the next election. With Mr. Hunter headed for his campaign finance trial likely in 2019, there is probably a better than even chance that this seat will go to special election before the next regular cycle. If Mr. Hunter is found guilty, he will be either forced to resign or expelled from the House. Therefore, we can expect other potential candidates to begin making moves now that Mayor Rahn has already come forward. The 50th District has 88% of its territory in San Diego County, and only 12% in Riverside County, where Temecula lies. Therefore, should we see a special election arise here, expect major San Diego County figures to quickly jump into the open race. As expected Democratic candidate Carolyn Bourdeaux has formally requested a recount be conducted of the 7th District Congressional race. The final tally found her trailing Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) by 419 votes. Ms. Bourdeaux wants a hand recount of all ballots, but that is unlikely to occur. State election officials have indicated the recount result will be reported quickly, which almost assuredly means the process will be conducted electronically.
Billionaire former hedge fund CEO Tom Steyer, who was actively spending millions of dollars promoting Democratic candidates in the 2018 election, is clearly preparing a bid to enter the already crowded Democratic presidential nomination fight.
Mr. Steyer just launched a new version of his website where he indicates that everyone should be guaranteed “five rights” (voting; clean air and water; education; livable wage; and healthcare). He also has scheduled a series of town hall meetings in places such as South Carolina and California to discuss his political platform. As many as 30 individuals are taking some action to become Democratic presidential candidates and probably more than 2/3 of them will actually enter the race. The 23rd District race from southwest Texas was the most confusing on election night. Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) was projected the winner, and then not, only to be projected again. But, his opponent, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, was challenging his 1,150 vote win, and filing suit that more Bexar County provisional ballots should be counted.
Yesterday, after failing to force any further counting, she conceded to Mr. Hurd, so the Congressman is finally officially elected to a third term. We can again count on a heated battle in the next election, as this swing district typically hosts close elections and has a history of unseating incumbents. The election totals are not even finalized yet, and defeated US Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) has already filed papers with the Federal Election Commission declaring her congressional candidacy for 2020. Though California’s jungle primary system would not necessarily guarantee that Ms. Walters would advance into the general election after the June vote, her chances of doing so are better than anyone else in the district. Therefore, even at this early date it is likely that we will see a re-match between Rep-Elect Katie Porter (D) and soon-to-be former Congresswoman Walters.
Up until the 2018 election, the region comprising the current 45th had been solidly Republican for 42 consecutive years in various district configurations. Should Ms. Walters follow through with her early decision, this district must be viewed as a prime Republican challenger opportunity. Democrat Joe Cunningham’s election on November 6th was one of the big election night surprises. And, it is already no secret that he can expect a major Republican challenge in 2020. His 2018 opponent, former state Rep. Katie Arrington (R), who ousted Rep. Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) in the Republican primary, found herself in intensive care after a terrible car accident, and then proceeded to lose to Cunningham, 50.7 – 49.3%. Ms. Arrington said yesterday, however, that she will run again. Speculation is building that Rep. Sanford may also launch a political comeback, and possibly again for the 1st District, but he is non-committal at this point.
In a day that featured several individuals who lost 2018 campaigns already saying they are looking to run again, defeated Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D) made statements yesterday confirming that she will again run for office in a future year. And, she is not denying already considering launching a challenge to first-term Sen. David Perdue (R) who comes before the voters in 2020. She stopped short of saying she would run for the Senate, but this would be a race to watch if she chooses to do.
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