With the 2018 campaign results now in the books, or close to it (the one exception being the outstanding CA-21 race that now favors Democrat T.J. Cox to defeat GOP Rep. David Valadao), we can look at the detailed composition of the new House and Senate.
The House will feature 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, a gain of 40 Democratic seats when compared to the previous Congress. A total of 93 are freshmen, not counting the nine members who came to the House as special election winners in 2017 and ’18. Of the 93 freshmen, 62 are Democrats. A total of 244 House members will have served three full terms or less when the new Congress convenes, making this the least senior chamber in the modern political era. The Senate will feature 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, eight of whom are freshmen. This number does not include the two appointed Senators, Tina Smith (D-MN) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), who have now been elected in their own right. The Republicans gained a net two seats when compared to the previous Congress. In 2020, 22 Republicans will be defending their seats versus just 12 Democrats, the opposite of the 2018 situation where the latter party was on the defensive in 26 of the 35 election campaigns. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), fresh from a 58% re-election victory to a third term, said definitively yesterday that he would not enter the burgeoning Democratic presidential primary field. With more potential candidates expressing interest daily, Gov. Cuomo has effectively taken any budding national candidacy for himself off the political table. Mr. Cuomo said he ran again for Governor to accomplish certain things for the state of New York, and he intends to concentrate on implementing his stated goals.
Add yet another US Senator to the potential presidential candidate rolls. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) confirms that he, too, is thinking of entering the presidential campaign. Among more than 20 other prospective contenders, Sen. Bennet, if he were to run, might directly oppose his state’s outgoing Governor, John Hickenlooper. As many as ten sitting US Senators could enter the presidential campaign, among the most serious being Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and, of course, Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT).
The final US Senate race concludes today as the Mississippi Senate run-off election will be decided. Since Mississippi is one of 16 states that has no early voting procedure we have no clues about which side may be gaining an initial advantage. The contest is between appointed incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy (D). Both sides agree that Sen. Hyde-Smith has the advantage heading into today, but all concede that Mr. Espy has momentum and that an upset cannot be ruled out.
Though California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/ Bakersfield) had been projected as the winner, the state’s marathon post-election day counting process appears to be producing a different outcome. Though the counting is still not complete and likely won’t be until early next week, Democratic challenger T.J. Cox has taken a 438-vote lead over the Congressman as a new batch of Kern County votes were reported last night. It is difficult to say how many mail, overseas, and provisional votes remain since the 21st is split among four counties and the domain totals report in aggregate, but this trend will likely hold giving Democrats their seventh conversion victory in California alone.
With Utah election authorities scheduled to certify the results of the close race between Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D) today, the Congresswoman yesterday conceded as the final total turned against her as counting concluded. Though Ms. Love dominated the rural counties, Mr. McAdams strength in Salt Lake County was enough to propel him to a close 694 vote victory from more than 269,000 ballots cast.
Adding this seat to the Democratic column and assuming T.J. Cox secures his victory in CA-21, the partisan division in the new House will soar to 235D – 200R, meaning a net gain of 40 seats for the Democrats. Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), who lost the Governor’s race two weeks ago to his congressional colleague, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque), confirmed yesterday that he will run for chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party early next year, and has not ruled out making yet another attempt to regain the House seat he relinquished to run statewide.
In 2008, Rep. Pearce ran for US Senate only to see a Democrat win the House seat while the Congressman was losing statewide. Mr. Pearce re-claimed the congressional seat in 2010. With attorney Xochitl Torres-Small converting Pearce’s seat to the Democratic column in this election, it is clear that the party will be looking to recruit a strong challenger. Since it would be difficult for the party to find a stronger candidate than Rep. Pearce, a second comeback run to regain the seat he voluntarily ceded would again have to be taken seriously. Potential US Senate candidates are already beginning to make preparatory moves for challenging Sen. Doug Jones (D), who must stand for election to a full six-year term next year. State Auditor Jim Zeigler (R), who initially looked toward running for Governor but backed off when Lt. Governor Kay Ivey (R) ascended to the state’s top position and quickly began to solidify party support, announced yesterday that he is filing an exploratory committee to assess his chances against Sen. Jones.
We can expect a crowded Republican primary field, including perhaps former Attorney General and US Senator Jeff Sessions (R) who has not ruled out making a bid for his former position. US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is another major political figure expected to make a run for the Senate post. Clearly, Sen. Jones, who was elected in the controversial 2017 special election, is the most vulnerable national Democratic incumbent seeking re-election. The Mississippi Senate run-off is scheduled for tomorrow, as voters will visit the polling places beginning Tuesday morning. Mississippi is one of 16 states that have no early voting procedure so all ballots will be cast at the polling place. The race has been saddled with controversy as appointed incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) has made a series of ill-advised comments with racial connotations that makes this a closer race than typical Mississippi voting history would suggest.
JMC Analytics just reported the only publicly released survey in the run-off cycle (11/19-21 & 24; 684 MS likely special election voters) and finds Sen. Hyde-Smith still leading Democratic former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy, 54-44%. The marathon vote counting process in Utah’s 4th Congressional District is finally drawing to a close, and the ending result looks to be just barely outside the automatic recount range. Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D) has declared victory over Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs), and the margin will likely hold. The unofficial final count gives McAdams a 694 vote lead. Under the percent allotment that would trigger an automatic recount translates into 673 votes. Under Utah law, the elections must be certified today. Falling outside of automatic recount range means the Love campaign will have to finance any requested recount.
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