Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D) federal corruption proceedings ended in a mistrial yesterday, which likely means the government will not proceed with their case against him because they clearly lack evidence to fully convince a jury that crimes had been committed. If they decline to move forward, it is likely the New Jersey Senate race will return to a normal progression. Sen. Menendez now won’t face an expulsion vote because of felony conviction, and he has maintained all along that he intends to seek re-election to a third term. Based upon yesterday’s occurrences, it appears that Sen. Menendez will return to a clear favorite’s role for re-election.
--Jim Ellis According to Cranston Mayor and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), a new internal political poll projects him to a big Republican primary lead, and even a small general election edge over incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) in the heavily Democratic state. In 2014, Ms. Raimondo defeated Mr. Fung, 41-36%, with three independent candidates dividing the remainder.
According to the TargetPoint Consulting survey (11/4-6; 600 RI active voters; 433 registered Republican households) Mr. Fung leads state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan and former state Representative and Trump honorary Rhode Island campaign co-chairman Joe Trillo by a respective 45-24-10% split. In the proposed general election, Fung claims a 46-41% edge over the Governor, who records an upside down favorability ratio of 43:49%. While Rhode Island is one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic states, the party has only elected two of the last six Governors. --Jim Ellis The Insight, LLC survey research firm tested the Iowa Democratic gubernatorial primary (8/8-10; 762 IA likely Democratic primary voters) and found that businessman Fred Hubbell, largely because of his early advertising campaign, has jumped out to the early lead. According to the result, Mr. Hubbell would command 22% support. He is followed by state Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) with 13%. All of the other candidates: SEIU labor union leader Cathy Glasson, John Norris, the former chief of staff to then-Gov. Tom Vilsack, ex-state Democratic Party chairman Andrea McGuire, former Des Moines School Board president Jonathan Neiderbach, and Ross Wilburn, the ex-Iowa City Mayor, all fall under 7% support.
Under Iowa election law, a party nominee must receive 35% of the primary vote. Failure for anyone to reach this support number means a state convention would be called for purposes of choosing the nominee. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who ascended to her position when incumbent Terry Branstad (R) was appointed US Ambassador to China, will seek her first full term in the Hawkeye State’s top political position. --Jim Ellis State House Majority Whip Tom Patton (R-Strongsville), a former state Senate Majority Floor Leader, announced yesterday that he is ending his congressional campaign for the open 16th District. Mr. Patton’s newborn grandson is in a life-threatening situation, thus continuing his run for Congress, he says, would impede upon his family responsibility. Therefore, Rep. Patton will instead seek re-election to his current position in the state legislature. This leaves former Indianapolis Colts and Ohio State University football star Anthony Gonzalez as the leading Republican congressional candidate. He has raised more than $600,000 for the effort, an almost 6:1 ratio over his remaining top competitor, state Rep. Christina Hagan (R-Marlboro Township). The 16th District is reliably Republican. Four-term Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) is not seeking re-election in order to run for Governor.
--Jim Ellis With early polling suggesting that state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York) leading the GOP gubernatorial contest and businessman Jeff Bartos (R) leaving the US Senate campaign hoping to join Wagner has his Lt. Governor running mate, a new Republican gubernatorial candidate is emerging. State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R-McCandless Township) says he will now become a gubernatorial candidate and compete for the nomination. Businessman Paul Mango, who has just recently run a wave of television advertising, is also waging an active campaign. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Gov. Tom Wolf (D) next November.
--Jim Ellis The Insight, LLC survey research firm tested the Iowa Democratic gubernatorial primary (8/8-10; 762 IA likely Democratic primary voters) and found that businessman Fred Hubbell, largely because of his early advertising campaign, has jumped out to the early lead. According to the result, Mr. Hubbell would command 22% support. He is followed by state Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) with 13%. All of the other candidates: SEIU labor union leader Cathy Glasson, John Norris, the former chief of staff to then-Gov. Tom Vilsack, ex-state Democratic Party chairman Andrea McGuire, former Des Moines School Board president Jonathan Neiderbach, and Ross Wilburn, the ex-Iowa City Mayor, all fall under 7% support.
Under Iowa election law, a party nominee must receive 35% of the primary vote. Failure for anyone to reach this support number means a state convention would be called for purposes of choosing the nominee. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who ascended to her position when incumbent Terry Branstad (R) was appointed US Ambassador to China, will seek her first full term in the Hawkeye State’s top political position. --Jim Ellis State House Majority Whip Tom Patton (R-Strongsville), a former state Senate Majority Floor Leader, announced yesterday that he is ending his congressional campaign for the open 16th District. Mr. Patton’s newborn grandson is in a life-threatening situation, thus continuing his run for Congress, he says, would impede upon his family responsibility. Therefore, Rep. Patton will instead seek re-election to his current position in the state legislature. This leaves former Indianapolis Colts and Ohio State University football star Anthony Gonzalez as the leading Republican congressional candidate. He has raised more than $600,000 for the effort, an almost 6:1 ratio over his remaining top competitor, state Rep. Christina Hagan (R-Marlboro Township). The 16th District is reliably Republican. Four-term Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) is not seeking re-election in order to run for Governor.
--Jim Ellis With early polling suggesting that state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York) leading the GOP gubernatorial contest and businessman Jeff Bartos (R) leaving the US Senate campaign hoping to join Wagner has his Lt. Governor running mate, a new Republican gubernatorial candidate is emerging. State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R-McCandless Township) says he will now become a gubernatorial candidate and compete for the nomination. Businessman Paul Mango, who has just recently run a wave of television advertising, is also waging an active campaign. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Gov. Tom Wolf (D) next November.
--Jim Ellis According to Cranston Mayor and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), a new internal political poll projects him to a big Republican primary lead, and even a small general election edge over incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) in the heavily Democratic state. In 2014, Ms. Raimondo defeated Mr. Fung, 41-36%, with three independent candidates dividing the remainder.
According to the TargetPoint Consulting survey (11/4-6; 600 RI active voters; 433 registered Republican households) Mr. Fung leads state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan and former state Representative and Trump honorary Rhode Island campaign co-chairman Joe Trillo by a respective 45-24-10% split. In the proposed general election, Fung claims a 46-41% edge over the Governor, who records an upside down favorability ratio of 43:49%. While Rhode Island is one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic states, the party has only elected two of the last six Governors. --Jim Ellis Veteran Texas Democratic Rep. Gene Green (D-Houston/Pasadena) became the sixth member of the state’s delegation to not seek re-election next year. Yesterday, Mr. Green announced that he will retire after 13 terms in the House, originally winning election in 1992. Rep. Green has continually represented the majority Hispanic Democratic seat since that time. The 29th District, which meanders within and around Houston and then stretches to the Pasadena area, is 77% Hispanic and safely Democratic. We can expect a large number of Democrats to now come forward to join former Harris County Sheriff and ex-Houston City Councilman Adrian Garcia, who challenged Mr. Green in the 2016 Democratic primary and had already announced his candidacy for next year. The Green retirement now brings the regular cycle open seat count to 35.
--Jim Ellis |
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