Former one-term US Rep. Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio) represented the swing 23rd District from 2011-2013. He defeated former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) in 2010, but then lost to Democrat Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) two years later. Rep. Gallego would then himself lose in 2014 to current incumbent Will Hurd (R-San Antonio). About two months ago, Mr. Canseco announced that he would challenge Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) in the heavily Democratic 20th CD. Now, the frequent Republican candidate has again changed course, but this time his move makes more political sense. Over the weekend, the former Congressman announced he is switching his candidacy to the open 21st District, the seat from which veteran Rep. Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) is retiring. Since the eventual Republican nominee will become the general election favorite here, a victory path for Mr. Canseco could exist.
--Jim Ellis Old Dominion Democratic Party members have decided how they will nominate 2018 candidates in two congressional districts. In the hotly contested 10th District (Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-McLean), the eleven announced Democratic candidates will do battle in a regular primary election. A convention, or “firehouse primary” had been discussed as nomination options, particularly by state Sen. Jennifer Wexton’s (D-Loudoun County) supporters, but the voters will now decide as opposed to a small group of party insiders. The “firehouse primary” is a hybrid that allows the public to vote, but in only a few locations around the district. This is another option designed to limit voter participation and effectively allow the party leaders to determine who will represent the party in the general election.
On the other hand, there will be no primary in more strongly Republican District 5, the southern Virginia seat that freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/ Charlottesville) represents. Therefore, the five announced Democratic candidates in this contest will now be forced to participate in a district-wide convention in order to win the party nomination. --Jim Ellis Former Sen. Bob Torricelli (D), who himself was forced to leave office in 2002 over a questionable campaign finance issue, had said he was interested in attempting a political comeback for his former position. With Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D) federal corruption proceedings now ending in a mistrial, Mr. Torricelli said over the weekend that he will not become a candidate next year. Assuming the government does not pursue further legal proceedings against Mr. Menendez, the Senator will be in strong position to win a third term.
--Jim Ellis State Rep. Justin Simmons (R-Coopersburg), who had announced a primary challenge to Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) before the Congressman decided to retire, has ended his congressional effort. Stung by several negative stories, not the least of which are the 500+ votes he has missed as a member of the legislature, Mr. Simmons could see his path to victory in the US House race to be narrowing to the point of unlikelihood.
Remaining in the race is state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie), Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein who won a gold medal for cycling in the 2000 Summer Olympics, Dauphin County Commissioner Mike Pries, and former CIA officer Scott Uehlinger. The leading Democrats appear to be Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli and Allentown City Solicitor Susan Wild. Republicans have the edge here, but this district will yield a highly competitive campaign particularly if the Democrats’ redistricting lawsuit prevails before the state Supreme Court early next year. --Jim Ellis Last week, a special Republican convention nominated state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Elizabeth/Jefferson Hills) as the party’s special congressional nominee for the March 13th special election to replace resigned US Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh). On Sunday, Democrats followed suit in their special nominating convention. The winner: former Assistant US Attorney Conor Lamb, whose father is the Pittsburgh city controller and his grandfather a former state Senate Democratic leader. Mr. Lamb won the party nomination on the second ballot, defeating Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli and ex-Obama Administration Veterans Affairs official Pam Iovino. The other four candidates were eliminated in the first vote, failing to secure 10% of the vote.
In a southwestern Pennsylvania seat that President Trump carried by 20 percentage points, Mr. Saccone begins the special election campaign as a heavy favorite to capture the seat. The winner will then turnaround and compete in the April regular election primary. --Jim Ellis Veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who had been contemplating entering the US Senate campaign for the past several months, announced his intentions on Friday. Instead of running statewide, Mr. Upton will seek a 17th term from his western Michigan US House district. For six years, Rep. Upton was chairman of the Energy & Commerce Committee, serving his allotted time under the conference term limit rule. Already, six Democrats have announced their candidacies against Mr. Upton, including Paul Clements, the Democratic nominee for the last two elections.
--Jim Ellis While the open Connecticut Governor’s race has exploded with seven Democratic and 11 Republican candidates, one major political figure that had been looming large on the horizon will not enter the race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) announced yesterday that she won’t enter next year’s gubernatorial campaign thus making the campaign to succeed outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy (D) even more unpredictable.
--Jim Ellis Continuing the phenomenon of seeing multiple Democrats file in vulnerable Republican districts, a new candidate emerged in the field against Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista). The Congressman won a ninth term in the House last November, but with only a 50.3% victory margin against retired Marine Corps Colonel Doug Applegate (D). Former United Nations and State Department official Sara Jacobs announced her congressional candidacy yesterday. She is also the granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs. Ms. Jacobs joins Col. Applegate, attorney Mike Levin, and real estate investor Paul Kerr as Democratic candidates. The top two vote getters in the June qualifying election, including Rep. Issa, will advance to the general election.
--Jim Ellis Democrats were excited about the electoral prospects of retired Air Force Colonel Doug Belote in a district that is moving toward politically marginal status. Yesterday, however, due to illness in his family, Col. Belote announced that he is withdrawing from the race. Three other Democrats remain, but party leaders are now looking toward state Senator Lynwood Lewis as a viable alternative. Freshman Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Virginia Beach) defends the southeastern Virginia Tidewater district in what could become a competitive campaign.
--Jim Ellis A new Public Policy Polling survey (11/10-12; 1,190 NE registered voters; automated) tested the Nebraska electorate, and Democratic candidate Jane Raybould claims the results portray incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in a vulnerable light. According to PPP, Sen. Fischer would only lead Ms. Raybould, a Lincoln City Councilwoman, 42-31%. The Senator’s favorability index is upside down at 35:45%. These latter numbers are not particularly surprising coming from PPP, since their favorability questions routinely return negative ratios regardless of the individual being tested. Such a poll, while clearly not bringing Sen. Fischer positive news, is not, in and of itself, a reason to move this race higher on any targeting list.
--Jim Ellis |
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