A pair of just released October polls give Sen. Martha McSally (R) her first lead since late June, even though others still post Democrat Mark Kelly to a substantial advantage. Susquehanna Polling & Research (10/19-22; 500 AZ likely voters; live interview) finds the appointed Senator holding a 50-47% edge. Earlier in the month, Basswood Research (10/3-5; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview) found her trending ahead 49-47%. Four others, however, which also tested the presidential race (see Arizona in the presidential section above), produces leads for Mr. Kelly of between two and eight percentage points.
The new Atlanta-based Landmark Communications survey (10/21; 500 GA likely voters) confirmed other new data that suggests Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) has a chance to move ahead of appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) to capture the second runoff position. Another survey, from Opinion Insight (10/12-15; 800 GA likely voters; live interview) sees Collins and Loeffler virtually tied for second place, just one point apart in the Senator’s favor. Democrat Raphael Warnock (D) appears the clear favorite to finish first.
The runoff election will occur if none of the 19 candidates on the special election ballot can secure majority support in the November 3rd jungle primary. The runoff is scheduled for January 5, 2021. Ohio’s 12th District produced both a very tight special and general election in the 2018 election cycle, both in favor of Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville). The 2020 race hasn’t attracted much national attention, but a new Public Policy Polling survey (10/14-15; 818 OH-12 registered voters; interactive response system) finds the Congressman holding only a 48-44% edge over Democratic nominee Alaina Schearer, a marketing firm CEO.
After several polls reported State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) either tied or virtually tied, the latest Siena College/New York Times survey (10/18-20; 758 MT likely voters; live interview) sees Mr. Rosendale now establishing a four-point edge, 50-46%.
Ever since freshman Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) was denied renomination in what many termed a “rigged convention,” Democrats have felt they have a chance to steal what plays as a reliable Republican district. A new poll suggests their inclination could prove correct. According to a just-released Public Policy Polling survey (10/21-22; 910 VA-5 voters; interactive voice response system), physician Cameron Webb (D) leads Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), 50-47%.
The Michigan Senate race has been drawing a lot of polling attention as the candidates stream toward the political finish line. The contest between Sen. Gary Peters (D) and business owner John James (R) also appears as a test case for the Trafalgar Group, which attempts to quantify much of the right-of-center vote that other pollsters have missed when comparing 2016 and 2018 accuracy records.
Yesterday, five different polls were released, with four producing similar results. Fox News (10/17-20; 1,032 MI likely voters; live interview), Data for Progress (10/15-18; 830 MI likely voters; online), Morning Consult (10/11-20; 1,717 MI likely voters; online), and Public Policy Polling (10/21-22; MI voters; interactive voice response system) all post Sen. Peters to a clear advantage, within five to nine percentage points. Trafalgar, on the other hand (10/15-18; 1,034 MI likely voters; live interview & online), sees a much different result. They find Mr. James holding a two-point lead, 50-48%. If the Republican were to complete the upset, Trafalgar would again be in a position of calling a race correctly when all others would be proven incorrect. Yesterday, Survey USA released a new Minnesota Senate poll (10/16-20; 625 MN likely voters; live interview) that finds former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R) pulling to within one percentage point, 43-42%, of Sen. Tina Smith (D) as the two work toward the end of their respective campaign schedules. Countering the S-USA poll is the Civiqs polling organization (for the Daily Kos Elections site; 10/17-20; 840 MN likely voters; online) that still projects Sen. Smith to be leading in low double-digits, 54-43%. The same two polls see former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by 6 (S-USA) and 9 percentage points (Civiqs) revealing little disagreement on that race.
Monmouth University conducted a recent Iowa statewide poll but did so by testing each of their four congressional districts individually.
Monmouth’s registered voters’ poll, which tends to reflect a mid-level turnout pattern, finds Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) holding a 52-44% edge over state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Cedar Rapids) in the eastern 1st District, former state Senator Rita Hart (D) posting a 49-43% lead over state Senator and former congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the open 2nd District, Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) posting a 53-42% mark over former Congressman David Young (R) in southwestern District 3, and state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) leading Democrat J.D. Scholten, 48-42%, in the open western 4th CD. Other firms find all of the races, with the exception of District 4, as polling much closer. The Oklahoma Sooner poll is out, and it shows that Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City) and state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) are battling to the end in what again appears to be a toss-up campaign. The Sooner Poll (10/16-20; 943 OK-5 likely voters; interactive voice response system) finds Rep. Horn leading Ms. Bice, 49-47%.
The Horn lead may not be as it seems, however, because she is getting 69% support among the youngest voters, those under 34 years of age who have the lowest turnout rates. Ms. Bice, on the other hand, leads among those over 50 years of age, the highest historical turnout group, by eight percentage points. Another campaign that has polled tight for weeks is the open at-large seat in Montana. Now, a new survey from Strategies 360 (10/15-20; 500 MT likely voters; online & text) confirms the trend, finding State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) tied at 46%.
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