Another pair of polls were released for the tightening and pivotal North Carolina Senate race. Public Policy Polling (10/26-27; 886 NC voters; interactive response device) still finds Democratic former state Senator Cal Cunningham running slightly ahead of Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47-44%. The Trafalgar Group (10/20-22; 1,098 NC likely voters; combination live interview, text, & online), on the other hand, gives Sen. Tillis the slight lead, 49-47%. North Carolina continues to be one of the most important of the 16 competitive seats on the 2020 Senate election board.
A one day flash tracking poll (10/26; 800 SC likely voters) gives Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) a nine-point, 52-43%, margin over former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison (D), which is by far the largest lead for either candidate since February. Similar information needs to surface in order for this margin to be verified, however.
A Survey USA poll for KGTV-Channel 2 and the San Diego Union Tribune (10/22-26; 538 CA-50 likely voters from a pool of 650 adults; recorded message interview & online) finds former Congressman Darrell Issa (R) rebounding to take a double-digit lead in his quest to return to the House.
The S-USA result forecasts Mr. Issa to be holding a 51-40% advantage over Democratic nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, who was also the 2018 party candidate who lost to then-Rep. Duncan Hunter (R), 52-48%. A poll two weeks ago, from Strategies 360 (10/10-13; 401 CA-50 likely voters), projected a dead heat (42-42%) between the two men. The Survey USA analysis suggests that women, in particular, are swinging back toward Issa in the campaign’s closing days. Three presidential polls were released in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania yesterday with wide-ranging results. Ipsos/Reuters (10/20-26; 655 PA likely voters; online) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 53-44%. YouGov (10/13-21; 736 PA registered voters; online) sees a similar 51-44% split in Biden’s favor. Insider Advantage, on the other hand (10/25; 400 PA likely voters; live interview & interactive voice response system) shows President Trump forging a three-point edge, 48-45%.
Three polls were released of the Texas Senate race yesterday, and while all project an advantage for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) over challenger M.J. Hegar (D), his lead ranges from two all the way to ten percentage points. Data for Progress (10/22-25; 1,018 TX likely voters; online) sees Sen. Cornyn ahead only 48-46%. The YouGov online survey (10/13-20; 1,000 TX likely voters; online), on the other hand, finds Sen. Cornyn in a better seven-point position, 49-42%. The only live interview poll of the three, however, from Siena College/New York Times (10/20-25; 802 TX likely voters; live interview) shows the Senator holding a full ten-point advantage, 48-38%.
For the second day in a row, a new Georgia Senate poll confirms that Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) is improving his position and now is in a clear dogfight for the second runoff position with appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R). The University of Georgia, polling for the Atlanta Journal Constitution newspaper in a large sample live interview poll (10/14-23; 1,145 GA likely voters; live interview), sees Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) leading the pack of candidates with 34% of the vote, while Rep. Collins slips past Sen. Loeffler for second position with a 21-20% split. The top two finishers will advance to a January 5, 2021 runoff election since no poll projects any of the candidates close to the 50% mark, which would elect him or her outright.
In a race that has been trending tight for weeks, ALG Research released their new survey of the Little Rock anchored congressional seat (10/16-21; 500 AR-2 likely voters) that finds three-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) and state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D-Little Rock) falling into a tie at 47% apiece. Both parties and associated outside entities have increased their non-connected spending for this race.
In a bare-knuckled brawl of a campaign on Staten Island, a new Marist College/NBC Channel 4 New York survey (10/19-21; 650 NY-11 likely voters; live interview) finds state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R) taking a two-point, 48-46%, lead over freshman Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island) in a race that has drawn large outside organization money and an aggregate spending total of $10 million between the two candidates (Rose spending 70% of that total). Among registered voters, Rep. Rose forges a one-point lead suggesting this tight race is coming down to a turnout battle.
We have six polls reporting from what could be the most important state on the presidential map, Arizona, and three are looking up for President Trump, while another trio are trending downward. The Morning Consult survey (10/11-20; 1,066 AZ likely voters; online) finds President Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden, 48-47%, while Susquehanna Polling & Research (10/19-22; 500 AZ likely voters; live interview) projects the two tied at 47%. Basswood Research, earlier in October (10/3-5; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview), produced a 49-48% edge for President Trump.
Conversely, Ipsos/Reuters (10/14-21; 658 AZ likely voters; online) gives Mr. Biden a 50-46% edge; and Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (10/18-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & online) yields the former VP a 48-46% advantage; while, RMG Research for the Political IQ blog (10/14-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & text) sees just a one-point spread in Mr. Biden’s favor, 47-46%. It appears that the Arizona vote is definitively drawing closer. The plethora of polls are also producing major conflicts within the same electorate during the same time period, a statistical inconsistency that has been frequently present in several recent situations. The latest Michigan presidential numbers are a clear example.
While the new Zia Poll (10/11-18; 2,851 MI likely voters; online) posts President Trump to a four point, 49-45%, lead and the Trafalgar Group (10/15-18; 1,034 MI likely voters; text & online) sees a 47-45% Trump edge, two others give former Vice President Joe Biden wider spreads. EPIC-MRA (10/15-19; 600 MI likely voters; live interview) yields the Democratic nominee a nine-point, 48-39%, margin, and Public Policy Polling (10/21-22; 804 MI voters; interactive voice response system) sees a similar 50-43% split. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
March 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|