Michigan: Trafalgar's Test

​The Michigan Senate race has been drawing a lot of polling attention as the candidates stream toward the political finish line.  The contest between Sen. Gary Peters (D) and business owner John James (R) also appears as a test case for the Trafalgar Group, which attempts to quantify much of the right-of-center vote that other pollsters have missed when comparing 2016 and 2018 accuracy records. 
 
Yesterday, five different polls were released, with four producing similar results.  Fox News (10/17-20; 1,032 MI likely voters; live interview), Data for Progress (10/15-18; 830 MI likely voters; online), Morning Consult (10/11-20; 1,717 MI likely voters; online), and Public Policy Polling (10/21-22; MI voters; interactive voice response system) all post Sen. Peters to a clear advantage, within five to nine percentage points. 
 
Trafalgar, on the other hand (10/15-18; 1,034 MI likely voters; live interview & online), sees a much different result.  They find Mr. James holding a two-point lead, 50-48%.  If the Republican were to complete the upset, Trafalgar would again be in a position of calling a race correctly when all others would be proven incorrect.