Tom Miller (D), who is 77 years of age and was first elected Iowa Attorney General in 1978, announced that he will seek an 11th non-consecutive term next year. Mr. Miller served consecutively in office from 1979 to 1991, departing after running unsuccessfully for Governor in 1990. He returned to re-claim the Attorney General’s position in 1994, and has held the office ever since. Needless to say, he is the longest serving Attorney General in the country.
Two-term Ohio US Representative Anthony Gonzalez (R-Rocky River) announced on Friday that he would not seek a third term, thus avoiding a tough primary with a Trump-endorsed opponent. Rep. Gonzalez was one of ten House Republicans who supported impeaching the then-President as a result of the January 6th US Capitol invasion, and since that time he and Mr. Trump have been in a feud. Rep. Gonzalez indicated he wants to spend his political time helping to deny Mr. Trump again becoming President, while the former national chief executive was claiming victory over the first of the ten GOP impeachment votes that he is targeting.
The Gonzalez departure could have a significant effect upon redistricting because Ohio again lost a seat in reapportionment, and the Cleveland-Akron-East Ohio area is the most likely place for the reduction. With Mr. Gonzalez not running in 2022, there are now 19 seats open, including the three vacancies heading into special elections in November and January. Political sources in Texas indicate the new congressional map will likely be unveiled tomorrow, and it could contain a surprise. Instead of the two new seats going to the Dallas and House metro areas, the map may feature the new districts going to Houston and the South Texas border region. In any event, the Lone Star State map will be one of the most important of the 2021 redistricting cycle.
The Washington Post sponsored a Virginia Governor’s survey (George Mason University Schar School of Policy & Government; 9/7-13; 728 VA likely voters; live interview), and largely came to the same conclusion as other previously conducted polls. The Post study projected former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) as holding a tight lead, 50-47%, over ex-hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin (R).
Mr. McAuliffe is viewed to be the better of the two in handling the coronavirus, education, and abortion issues, while Mr. Youngkin is favored on taxes, crime, and the economy. The Governor’s election will be decided on November 2nd. In a scenario that has occurred several times in North Carolina over the past several years, a state three-judge panel struck down the NC voter identification law on a 2-1 decision, ruling that the law is unfair to minority voters. The Republican state legislative leadership will likely appeal the decision, meaning we will again see a legal battle over the requirements surrounding proof of identity before voting. It is unclear how this development could affect the upcoming election cycle.
The continuing saga of the Buffalo Mayor’s race took another turn late last week. Mayor Byron Brown was defeated in the June Democratic primary, and decided to run as a write-in Independent candidate in the general election. He then petition the local Board of Elections for ballot placement, but the board members rejected his request. Mayor Brown then sued and was granted ballot placement by the local court. His opponent, Democratic mayoral nominee India Walton, then took legal action to reverse the judicial ruling. Now, the appellate court ruled in her favor, and Mayor Brown is back on the outside looking in.
Barring another legal decision, it appears Mayor Brown’s general election campaign effort returns to write-in status. Since we’ve seen several reversal rulings, it is unclear as to whether he will ultimately have printed status on the ballot. The course will have to render a final declaration quickly, since absentee ballots will soon be printed and mailed. Healthcare consultant and former congressional aide Janelle Perez (D) has withdrawn from her announced challenge to freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) and instead will run for the state Senate. Among the potential Democratic post-redistricting candidates are defeated one-term House members Donna Shalala, who was also the former Health & Human Services Secretary and ex-University of Miami president, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who represented the adjacent 26th District until losing to current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (D-Miami).
As the California recall vote draws to a close, conservative political commentator Larry Elder, who easily placed first in the now moot gubernatorial replacement election, confirmed in a media interview that he will “likely” run in the regular 2022 election. Though he would be a considerable underdog in this most Democratic of states, Mr. Elder now has proven fundraising ability - approximately $18 million for the recall race - and attracted approximately 3 million votes. No other Republican has such prominent political credentials.
Former US Senator, Representative, and Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) is scheduled to announce his gubernatorial bid early next week. He will join Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee as major Republican candidates. The winner challenges first-term Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in what promises to be a competitive general election race.
Rhode Island General Treasurer Seth Magaziner announced he will challenge Gov. Dan McKee in next year’s Democratic primary. Already in the race is Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D). On the other end of the spectrum, Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza (D), saying he cannot fulfill his current duties and simultaneously campaign statewide, announced that he will not enter the gubernatorial primary.
Mr. McKee ascended to the Governorship from his elected Lt. Governor position when incumbent Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary. The Rhode Island primary is scheduled for September 13, 2022. Winning the Ocean State Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the general election. |
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