The Buffalo Mayor’s race has acted like a seesaw ever since self-proclaimed socialist India Walton (D) denied four-term Mayor Byron Brown re-nomination in the June Democratic primary. Mayor Brown is returning as an Independent candidate, and through various court rulings and then reversals, he is forced to run a write- in campaign. Otherwise, Ms. Walton is unopposed on the general election ballot. A new co/efficient survey (9/16-17; 653 likely Buffalo voters; live interview & text) finds Mayor Brown with an increasingly large lead, now 59-28%. The question is, will these poll numbers translate into actual write-in votes for Mayor Brown? Therefore, this becomes an interesting race at least from a political science perspective.
Selzer & Company, Iowa’s most accurate pollster, went into the field for the Des Moines Register newspaper (9/12-15; 805 IA adults; 620 IA likely voters; live interview) and found seven-term Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) in strong position against former US Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D). The ballot test gave the Senator a 55-37% advantage over Ms. Finkenauer with a 47:40% positive to negative job approval ratio. Sen. Grassley has said he will make a decision about seeking an eighth six-year term by November 1st. He will be 89 years of age at the next election.
State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) made his US Senate exploratory official this week with an announcement that he would become an open seat statewide candidate. Sen. Dolan is also a minority owner of the Cleveland Indians baseball team, which has apparently disqualified him from obtaining former President Donald Trump’s support. Mr. Trump said in reference to Sen. Dolan’s candidacy, “Anybody that changes the name of the once storied Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians should not be running for the United States Senate representing the great people of Ohio.”
Sen. Dolan joins former state Treasurer and 2012 US Senate nominee Josh Mandel, author J.D. Vance, and ex-Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken as the major Republican US Senate candidates. US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) is becoming the consensus Democratic candidate. Clarity Campaign Labs tested the Wisconsin electorate (9/8-11; 756 WI likely voters; live interview and interactive voice response system) and found Sen. Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) tied in an early 2022 general election pairing. Both candidates pulled 43% support.
Sen. Johnson has not yet committed to running for a third term, but promises a decision “in the Fall.” Lt. Gov. Barnes is opposed in the Democratic Senate primary by state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, and Milwaukee Bucks basketball club Senior Vice President and ex-Obama White House aide Alex Lasry, among others. Former Chester County Chamber of Commerce president, ex-Lt. Governor and congressional aide Guy Ciarrocchi, who has lost previous electoral campaigns, announced his gubernatorial candidacy at the beginning of the week. He joins former Congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, two state Senators, and a Harrisburg lobbyist in the GOP field. Democrats are expected to coalesce around Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who has yet to announce his intentions. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
The Trafalgar Group released their new survey of the Michigan electorate (9/13-15; 1,097 MI likely voters; live interview, interactive voice response system, online, and text) and finds retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), for the first time, leading Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The ballot test gave the former Chief a 50-44% advantage.
The Strategic National firm also tested the Governor’s race (9/18-19; 600 MI likely voters) and found Ms. Whitmer holding just a 47-46% lead over Mr. Craig. The Strategic National poll appears slightly skewed toward Republicans because the number of sampled blacks is low and Republicans high according to the statewide demographic scale. Additionally, the founder of Strategic National is a campaign consultant to Mr. Craig. In any event, however, it is reasonable to believe the 2022 Michigan Governor’s race is already becoming a hot political contest. The OnMessage survey research firm, polling for the Advancing Arizona Forward organization that supports Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) for the US Senate, released the ballot test results from the September 9-12 Arizona statewide poll (sample size and methodology not publicized).
The study finds Mr. Brnovich, twice elected Attorney General but ineligible to seek a third term, taking a commanding lead in the GOP primary. According to the OnMessage numbers, Mr. Brnovich enjoys a 41-6-5-4% lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters, businessman Jim Lamon, and retired Arizona National Guard Adjutant General Mick McGuire. The eventual Republican nominee will face freshman Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in the general election. Republican leaders for the two election cycles have been trying to convince Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) to challenge Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) in New York’s Upstate 19th District. It appears the leadership has now convinced him. Mr. Molinaro filed a 2022 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. It remains to be seen, however, how the new 19th CD will be drawn. Preliminary maps suggest Democrats are looking to develop an extreme map, meaning the 19th could look well different, and potentially more Democratic, than it is today.
A second poll in the last several weeks was released yesterday, again showing a closing New Jersey Governor’s race. National Research, Inc. (9/13-16; 600 NJ likely voters; live interview) finds Gov. Phil Murphy (D) leading former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a small 45-42% margin. Perhaps most troubling for the Governor, just 33% of the respondents approve of his tax policies, 42% back what he’s done on job creation, and only 30% agree with Gov. Murphy’s stated goal of making New Jersey “the California of the East Coast.”
Earlier, Fabrizio Lee & Associates (8/24-29; 600 NJ likely voters; live interview) found a similar 43-41% split, which was the first poll highlighting a close race. Two hypothetical Texas gubernatorial ballot test responses were released late this weekend, finding Gov. Greg Abbott (R) both leading and trailing. Against a more likely opponent, former Congressman and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) who is beginning to act like a candidate, the University of Texas at Tyler polling for the Dallas Morning News (9/7-14; 1,148 TX registered voters; live interview & online) conducted an exhaustive 78-question survey and found Gov. Abbott ahead of Mr. O’Rourke only by a 42-37% count. Conversely, if actor Matthew McConaughey (D) were to run, he would top the Governor, 44-35%.
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