Former Ohio state Senator and ex-national co-chair for the Bernie Sanders for President campaign, Nina Turner, lost the Democratic special congressional election primary to Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown on September 14th after the former woman began the campaign as a big favorite.
Though the special general hasn’t yet occurred (November 2nd), Ms. Turner yesterday filed a 2022 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The former state legislator said the action doesn’t mean she will run in 2022, but does give her the option of quickly launching a campaign. The Cleveland anchored seat will remain in Democratic hands regardless of who wins the next Democratic primary. Monmouth University released their new Virginia poll (9/22-26; 801 VA likely voters; live interview) and despite the major advertising campaigns that both contenders have launched, the numbers haven’t moved. Both men gained just one point in support when compared to Monmouth’s August survey. The September data finds former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) leading ex-hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin (R), 48-43%. Both have similar favorability ratios: McAuliffe: 40:33% favorable to unfavorable; Youngkin: 40:31%.
The statewide economy has replaced COVID-19 as Virginia’s top issue according to the poll respondents, with education a close third. A total of 39% said the economy and jobs is the top problem category facing the next Virginia Governor, 32% identified the pandemic as the area of greatest concern, and 31% responded that education and the schools need addressing. As sources predicted, California US Rep. Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) announced that she is entering the open Los Angeles Mayor’s race. She will risk her Los Angeles anchored US House seat, which now stands a good chance of being the seat collapsed since it is, to date, the only California open seat for the 2022 election.
At this point, Ms. Bass will face LA City Council President Pro Tempore Joe Buscaino, Los Angeles City Councilman and ex-state Senate President Kevin de Leon, and LA City Attorney Mike Feuer. All are Democrats, though the mayoral race is ostensibly non-partisan. Iowa’s longest serving US Senator, Chuck Grassley (R), announced on Friday that he will seek re-election to an eighth Senatorial term, unprecedented for any Iowan. Mr. Grassley was first elected to the Senate on the same night that Ronald Reagan won the Presidency back in 1980. He has been in office consecutively since 1959, including his time in the state legislature and US House. Sen. Grassley, who will turn 89 years of age before the next election, said he has “a lot more to do for Iowa,” and is therefore seeking re-election.
Mr. Grassley will likely face only minimal opposition in the Republican primary, and probably see former US Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) as his general election opponent. An early Selzer & Company poll released last week (9/12-15; 805 IA adults; 620 IA likely voters; live interview) projected Sen. Grassley to be holding a 55-37% advantage over Ms. Finkenauer. Maine’s redistricting commission, which consists of ten state legislators and five appointed members, reached an agreement on a new congressional map. The main change is moving the capital region of Augusta from liberal District 1 (Rep. Chellie Pingree-D) to more conservative District 2 (Rep. Jared Golden-D). The 2nd District becomes slightly more Democratic, but former President Trump would still have carried the seat. Both houses of the Maine legislature must pass redistricting maps with 2/3 vote, so this process is far from complete. The state House is expected to consider the new congressional plan later this week.
Clarity Campaign Labs, polling for the EMILY’s List organization that supports Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, released their statewide survey, the first since Attorney General Derek Schmidt became a consensus Republican candidate. According to the poll results (9/13-15; 810 KS registered voters; interactive voice response system), Gov. Kelly’s ballot test lead over AG Schmidt is only 47-44%. We can expect this race to move into the toss-up realm.
Reports are emanating from Capitol Hill that California US Rep. Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) will, possibly as early as this week, make a formal announcement entering the open Los Angeles Mayor’s race. Incumbent Eric Garcetti (D) has been nominated as US Ambassador to India and will leave office upon Senate confirmation. Even without the ambassadorial appointment, Mr. Garcetti would be ineligible to seek a third term. Upon his departure, the City Council will install an interim Mayor.
The Mayor’s race will run concurrently with the regular election cycle, meaning Rep. Bass would risk her House seat. California is losing a seat in reapportionment, and it is likely the loss will come from Los Angeles County since all of the region’s congressional districts are short on population. If Rep. Bass’ seat is open, the redistricting commission could easily collapse the district. The other major mayoral contenders are LA City Council President Pro Tempore Joe Buscaino, Los Angeles City Councilman and ex-state Senate President Kevin de Leon, and LA City Attorney Mike Feuer. All are Democrats. Last week, freshman state Sen. Siah Correa Hemphill (D-Silver City) confirmed that she was considering a bid against freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamorgordo) but yesterday announced that she will not run for Congress next year. Political reports suggest the Democratically controlled legislature will attempt to draw the 2nd District more favorably for their party, thus making the seat more competitive. This plays favorably for Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez, who is already picking up major endorsements, such as the one from US Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), and now appears to be the leading Democratic candidate.
After National Research, Inc. earlier this week released their survey (9/13-16; 600 NJ likely voters; live interview) showing former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) pulling to within three points of Gov. Phil Murphy (D), 45-42%, Monmouth University counters with their new poll (9/16-20; 804 NJ registered voters; live interview), posting the incumbent back to a 51-38% advantage. These are wide spreads, obviously, meaning one is an outlier. This race could get interesting as we head toward a November 2nd finish.
In early March, Rhode Island Lt. Governor Dan McKee (D) was sworn in as the state’s new chief executive when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary. It was believed that the new incumbent would have a major fight to keep his position in the 2022 Democratic primary, which, as one of the last in this election cycle, is scheduled for September 13th.
The prediction of a combative primary has already come true. Yesterday, former Secretary of State Matt Brown announced he will join the Democratic gubernatorial field. Already in the race to challenge Gov. McKee are General Treasurer Seth Magaziner and current Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea. It is likely the more individuals will join the race, thus making the field even more crowded. The bigger the number of opponents, the better for Gov. McKee as he would be best positioned to win a plurality primary. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
March 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|