The Majority Institute, a Democratic-affiliated group, commissioned a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll (8/2-5; 500 NM likely voters) that largely confirms another Democratic poll. According to GQR, Sen. Heinrich holds a 48-33-17% lead over state Labor Commission member Mick Rich (R) and former Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. The previous Democratic poll release came from the Global Strategies Group, conducted for the Heinrich Campaign (8/1-5; 800 NM likely voters), that found a 47-29-22% split in the same order as the GQR result.
But, the latest Emerson College survey (8/17-18; 500 NM likely voters) sees something different than the preceding Democratic data. Emerson finds Heinrich leading Johnson and Rich, 39-21-11%. It is relevant to note that the Emerson survey is the only one released after Mr. Johnson officially entered the race. Regardless of who posts in second and third position, Sen. Heinrich is first in all polling and will likely remain there. While the Johnson entry makes this race more interesting, the end result will be Sen. Heinrich winning a second term but with a lower victory percentage than first predicted. The Kansas State Objections Board has ruled against a Democratic complaint claiming that Independent Greg Orman filed enough illegitimate ballot petition signatures to disqualify him from the November campaign. The Board’s action secures Mr. Orman’s ballot position unless the Democratic plaintiffs can overturn the ruling in court.
The Democrats fear that Orman will drain too many votes away from their open seat gubernatorial nominee, state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka), and secure victory for Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who replaced Gov. Sam Brownback (R) after he accepted a federal appointment, lost the Governor’s nomination to Mr. Kobach by just 361 votes statewide. It appears that Arizona Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) is hitting her stride at exactly the right time in reference to the Senate Republican primary. According to a new Data Orbital poll (8/21-22; 600 AZ likely GOP primary voters via live phoner interviews; 40% already reporting to have cast an early vote), Rep. McSally has a 48-22-18% lead over former state Sen. Kelli Ward and ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
The polling analysis explains that Ms. McSally has gained over 16 points in tracking since August 8th, while her two GOP opponents have remained basically stagnant. The winner of Tuesday’s primary will face Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) in the open general election. Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is retiring after one term. Florida is another state that hosts a primary on Tuesday, and it appears that freshman Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) is in prime position to win re-nomination in his east-west district that contains both Jacksonville and Tallahassee. The University of North Florida conducted a Democratic primary poll (8/17-19; 402 FL-5 likely Democratic primary voters) and found Rep. Lawson leading former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown (D), 47-29%, despite Duval County (J’ville) holding 58% of the district’s population. Mr. Brown is running ahead in Duval, 47-29%, but Rep. Lawson swamps him in the remainder of the district, 68-10%.
Billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who has spent $25 million of his own money on the Governor’s campaign has reportedly cancelled has last statewide television buy just as the primary is approaching on August 28th. Clearly, Mr. Greene sees no path to victory for himself, which renders further spending to be a waste.
The move could be a help to Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine. Clearly leading the race before Greene got in – the latter man’s support seemed to be coming from Levine’s constituency, thus allowing former Rep. Gwen Graham to snatch first place in most polling – Levine has been gaining at the end to make the race very close. Greene effectively conceding could drive some of those votes back to Levine and possibly change Tuesday’s outcome. The Tarrance Group, polling for Gov. Henry McMaster (R), released the results of their latest survey for the incumbent’s campaign. According to their data (8/6-9; 605 SC likely voters), Gov. McMaster holds a 52-41% advantage over wealthy state Rep. James Smith (D-Columbia). The poll was released in response to a Democratic Garin Hart Yang Research survey that was briefly in the public domain but has since been pulled. Without having any methodology information to quote, the ballot test was reported as a tight 47-43% in the Governor’s favor.
Two Connecticut universities released their own survey data about the upcoming open Governor’s race, and each arrives at rather different conclusions. New Haven’s Quinnipiac University (8/16-21; 1,029 CT registered voters) sees Democratic nominee Ned Lamont opening up a substantial lead over Republican businessman Bob Stefanowski (46-33%). But, Fairfield’s Sacred Heart University (8/16-21; 502 CT likely voters), in a survey taken during the same period but with a smaller and more refined sampling universe, sees Stefanowski closing to only a 41-37% deficit. The Connecticut race is expected to be close, just as the last two Nutmeg State gubernatorial contests have been. Two-term Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is not seeking a third term.
A new statewide Wisconsin survey from Marquette Law School, which is a regular Badger State pollster, finds surprising results in the US Senate race. According to their latest release (8/15-19; 800 WI registered voters; 601 likely voters) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading new Republican nominee Leah Vukmir, a Brookfield state Senator, by only a 49-47% count within the likely voter segment. These are clearly the best GOP numbers posted in any poll for this Senate race. It is possible that Ms. Vukmir is enjoying a polling bump from winning the Republican primary a day before this survey went into the field, so we need to wait for later data to see if the ballot test reverts to previous margins.
NBC News/Marist College released their latest Texas study (8/12-16; 970 TX adults) and find Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 49-45%, which is slightly closer than most polls have indicated. But, the sampling universe is of adults, and not even Texas voters. Therefore, it is likely that, among registered and likely voters, the Senator’s standing is stronger.
Suffolk University, polling for the St. Cloud Times newspaper (8/17-20; 500 MN likely voters), finds Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D) and Tina Smith (D) leading in their respective 2018 US Senate races.
It is no surprise that Sen. Klobuchar has a 54-34% lead over state Rep. Jim Newberger (R-Becker) according to the Suffolk results. The Klobuchar race is not expected to be competitive. But, appointed Sen. Tina Smith, on the other hand, is likely to fall into a tough campaign against state Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Croix Valley). The Suffolk numbers on this race find Sen. Smith holding a 44-37% edge, which is consistent with an Emerson College Polling survey (8/8-11; 500 MN likely voters) that found Sen. Smith’s lead only to be 32-28%. |
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