In the middle of back and forth accusations and responses about whether Democratic congressional nominee Dana Balter would vote to raise taxes, Suffolk University released a poll (8/20-23; 513 NY-24 likely voters) that projects two-term US Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse) holding a strong advantage over Ms. Balter, a visiting college professor. He leads by a sizable 54-39% margin.
Rep. Katko has run very strong here in his two elections. In 2014, he unseated Rep. Dan Maffei (D-Syracuse), 58-39%. He was then re-elected in 2016 with 61% of the vote. Yesterday, we reported that the Alaska AFL-CIO leadership decided to support Independent Gov. Bill Walker for re-election over former US Senator Mark Begich (D), who they had backed in previous elections.
Now, the union released the results of its Harstad Strategic Research poll (8/13-16; 602 AK likely voters) that sees Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy leading Gov. Walker and Mr. Begich, 36-26-24%, respectively. The union leadership then used the polling results to call upon Mr. Begich, a former US Senator and Anchorage Mayor, to drop out of the gubernatorial race to give incumbent Walker a better chance of beating Mr. Dunleavy. Voters in Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma choose nominees today. In Arizona and Florida, primary elections are being held. Some Oklahoma voters will decide party run-off campaigns for those not obtaining a majority in their June 26th primary elections.
The key races are the open Florida Governor’s race (both parties), the Arizona Senate contest (Republicans), AZ Governor campaign (Democrats), the Oklahoma gubernatorial run-off (Republicans), and various congressional races up and down the ballot in all three states. St. Pete Polls conducted their final poll of tomorrow’s Democratic gubernatorial primary (8/25-26; 2,342 FL likely Democratic primary voters via automated response device) and sees former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) continuing to lead the race, this time with 32% of the vote.
St. Pete, likewise, detects upward movement for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, but his rise may be too little, too late. The firm’s result finds Gillum now in second place with 25%, closely followed by Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, the early leader, who posts 22%. This race has been volatile for weeks, so the vote today could still yield a much different finishing combination. Survey USA, polling for News Channel 10 in San Diego, fielded the first congressional poll after Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) and his wife were indicted for campaign finance violations. According to the poll results (8/22-26; 850 CA-50 adults; 746 registered voters; 539 likely voters), Rep. Hunter would lead Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, 47-39%, if the election were today. By a margin of 76-21%, respondents said they are aware that Rep. Hunter was indicted. By a margin of 41-33%, the polling sample indicated that Rep. Hunter should continue to run as opposed to resign his seat.
Eschewing former US Senator Mark Begich (D), who they had previously backed, the Alaska AFL-CIO leadership announced yesterday that the organization is endorsing Gov. Bill Walker (I) for re-election. The union spokesman admitted that the Governor’s chances would be better of defeating Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy, a former state Senator, if the race were only a two-way affair.
For Dunleavy, the Republican Governor’s Association, through their affiliated group Families for Alaska’s Future, will spend over $1.1 million in backing their new nominee, clearly believing the incumbent can be defeated in the three-way format. The Democratic National Committee scheduled the first-in-the-nation presidential campaign caucus for the state of Iowa. The first votes for the 2020 presidential election will occur in the Hawkeye State on February 3, 2020.
In order to quell political speculation during the late Sen. John McCain’s mourning period, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced that he will begin considering replacement choices only after the Senator is laid to rest. The official schedule has not yet been announced, but Mr. McCain will lie in state in both the US Capitol and the Arizona state Capitol. The funeral will be at the National Cathedral in Washington, and he will be buried at the Naval Academy Cemetery in Annapolis, MD.
The open Florida Governor’s nomination contest, which will finally be decided tomorrow, has been one of the most interesting campaigns during the current election cycle. In a Republican race that has bounced back and forth between Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam and Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) continues to do so until the very end.
Since August 13th, five polls have been released, one that shows Mr. Putnam leading (St. Leo University; 52-41%), and three that find Rep. DeSantis ahead by one (Florida Atlantic University), two (Survey USA), and twelve percentage points (Gravis Marketing). Now, St. Pete Polls released the latest (8/22-23; 2,141 FL likely Republican primary voters) that finds DeSantis crushing Putnam, 56-33%, as the campaign draws to a close. On the Democratic side, after cancelling his last week ad buy, billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who has spent $25 million of his own money on the Governor’s campaign, now says he will resume airing commercials today, the last day of the primary campaign. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum continues to draw major financial support from national liberal donors in the final days. Billionaire Tom Steyer, whose organization, NextGen America, has already been backing Gillum with a seven-figure expenditure, and financier George Soros are combining to spend $550,000 in the final couple of days. But, former Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) is receiving a similar independent expenditure on her behalf. Her father, former Governor and Senator Bob Graham (D), is spending $500,000 on his own independent effort to support his daughter’s political quest. Ohio election officials have certified state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) as the 12th Congressional District special election winner by a 1,680-vote margin (50.1 – 49.3%). This means Rep-Elect Balderson will be sworn into Congress shortly and serve the balance of the current term. He and the man he just barely defeated, Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D), will again square off in the regular general election for the full two-year term.
Though the race was close, there was little doubt that the remaining absentee and provisional votes would alter the original outcome that found Balderson holding a 1,781-vote advantage. In the end, the canvass and after-vote counting led to a margin change of just 101 votes. The final turnout figure was 208,141 votes, which compares favorably to the district’s last midterm participation number (221,081). |
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