On Friday, we reported that Sen. John Cornyn (R) saw another prospective Democratic opponent, Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, come forward to announce her Senate candidacy. Now, it appears that a veteran state legislator will join the field later today.
Royce West (D) has represented Dallas in the state Senate since his first election in 1992. In addition to Royce and Edwards, retired Army helicopter pilot and defeated congressional candidate M.J. Hegar (D) with former Houston Congressman and ex-gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell (D) comprise the remainder of the Democratic field. The winner of the March 3rd primary will attempt to deny Sen. Cornyn a fourth term. Some Republican leaders were hoping to recruit state Delegate Nick Freitas (R-Culpeper) into the 7th Congressional District next year to challenge freshman Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) but that plan may have hit a bump in the road. Mr. Freitas was looking to win re-election to the state House this year in a landslide to strengthen his position, but now it appears his filing was not successfully completed meaning he is disqualified. If he is to run for the state House, it looks like he will have to run as a write-in candidate.
Public Policy Polling conducted a survey (7/12-14; 561 CO likely Democratic primary voters) of the Centennial State Democratic electorate and finds three of the five top presidential candidates securely in double-digits.
The results show ex-Vice President Joe Biden topping the field with 22%, just three points ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) records 15% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) posts 9%, followed by both South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper each with 7 percent. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet secures only 5% preference from his home state electorate. The Democratic presidential debate lineup has been selected for the next forum at the end of the month in Detroit, and it is clear that former Vice President Joe Biden will have to bring his “A game” in order to strengthen what appears to be his diminishing advantage over the rest of the large field.
By random draw for the July 31st session, he will again face California Sen. Kamala Harris who proved to be a formidable contender in the original Miami forum. Sharing the stage with him will be Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, all who are capable of going on offense. The first night will feature possibly the first ever head-to-head match-up between Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will also be in this group. It is likely this will be the last time we see such a large field as the qualification requirements will increase substantially for the Sept 12-13 sessions in Houston. Likely, author Marianne Williamson, ex-Rep. John Delaney (D-MD), former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio will be making their last such appearance. Entrepreneur Lisa Song Sutton, who was Miss Nevada USA in 2014, announced that she will seek the Republican nomination to eventually challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). Though the district leans Democratic, the campaign could become competitive.
Mr. Horsford was first elected in 2012 when the seat was added to the Nevada delegation as a result of the 2010 apportionment. But, he lost re-election after one term to Republican Cresent Hardy, who then lost his own re-election two years later. When Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) ran into a sex scandal and didn’t seek his first re-election, Mr. Horsford returned, this time defeating Mr. Hardy. The short electoral history indicates that the 4th District electorate has yet to re-elect its incumbent. Therefore, a Horsford-Sutton match could become a race to watch. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House leadership, and most of the Democratic members of the Texas delegation are all lining up to sponsor an event next week to convince former gubernatorial nominee and ex-Ft. Worth state Senator Wendy Davis (D) to challenge freshman Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin/San Antonio).
It appears obvious that the die is cast for her to accept the support so expect Ms. Davis to declare her candidacy in conjunction with the event. Assuming she runs, the liberal Davis and conservative Roy would butt heads in a stark ideological contrast campaign. Ms. Davis will have none of her Ft. Worth political base in this South Texas seat, but liberal Austin will more than compensate. Rep. Roy raised $402,000 in the second quarter and holds $656,000 in his campaign account. We can expect multi-million dollar campaigns from both sides in this budding race. Former state Rep. Jeanne Ives, who challenged then-Gov. Bruce Rauner from the right in the 2018 Republican primary and held him to a 51-48% win, announced that she will enter the primary campaign to eventually challenge freshman Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove). Ms. Ives will ironically battle Gov. Rauner’s Lt. Governor, Evelyn Sanguinetti, for the GOP congressional nomination. The winner faces an uphill battle against Rep. Casten, who unseated veteran Rep. Peter Roskam (R) in the 2018 election.
Continuing with the growing number of Democratic intra-party congressional incumbent challenges, Will County Board member Rachel Ventura is launching a primary campaign against veteran Rep. Bill Foster (D-Naperville). Mr. Foster was first elected to the neighboring 14th District in 2008 but lost the seat in the 2010 GOP landslide. He then returned with a victory in this suburban Chicago CD two years later. Ms. Ventura says she will attack Mr. Foster from his political left.
Sen. John Cornyn (R) has drawn yet another Democratic challenger, and one more from Houston. In addition to retired Army helicopter pilot and defeated congressional candidate M.J. Hegar (D) and former Houston Congressman and ex-gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell (D), outgoing Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) announced her candidacy yesterday.
As the field grows, Ms. Edwards, who was first elected to the City Council in 2015 but is not seeking re-election this year, could be in favorable position. Being the only person of color in the race could allow her to coalesce the minority communities throughout the state, which would give her a major advantage in a Democratic primary. In any event, Sen. Cornyn is favored to win a fourth term next year. In 2018, after leading the vote counting until the very end when the outcome turned, former Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Bakersfield) lost his seat to newcomer agri-businessman T.J. Cox (D). The total vote count of just 862 ballots separated the two candidates in what ended as the lowest turnout seat among California’s 53 CDs (113,616 voters).
Yesterday, Mr. Valadao, who has been quiet since the election, filed a 2020 candidate committee with the Federal Election Commission. While this does not constitute a statement of candidacy, it is a necessary first step. Reported sources close to the ex-Congressman indicate that Mr. Valadao will run and plans to formally announce in August. For his part, Rep. Cox just reported raising $708,501 through the second quarter with a cash-on-hand figure of $483,837. |
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