Author and CEO Steve Pemberton, whose story of his Foster care upbringing after being abandoned as a child became a best-selling book and movie, yesterday joined the Democratic Senate primary against incumbent Ed Markey. Already in the race was attorney and liberal activist Sharon Liss-Riordan.
Mr. Pemberton appears to be a legitimate candidate, but the more crowded the primary field becomes, the easier it will be for Sen. Markey to win when the anti-incumbent vote is divided. Massachusetts law allows plurality victories. The state primary is not until September 15, 2020, after a May 5th filing deadline. The Pemberton candidacy makes this race more interesting and it could attract national attention next year, but Sen. Markey is still favored for re-nomination and re-election. Echoing the latest Morning Consult large-sample national poll (7/15-21; 17,285 US registered voters; online methodology from pools of 5,000 qualified voters per day) that posted former Vice President Joe Biden to a 33-18-14-13% advantage over Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA), the new YouGov/The Economist survey (7/21-23; 600 likely Democratic primary voters) also finds the ex-VP leading in similar proportion.
The YouGov results project Mr. Biden to a 25-18-13-9% margin over his opponents who finish in a different order from what Morning Consult detected. In this survey, Sen. Warren is second with Sanders and Harris following. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg finishes in mid-single digits in both polls. Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R), who had been indicating that he would challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen since early in the year, formally announced his candidacy yesterday. Mr. O’Brien served as Speaker during the 2011-12 legislative session. He is currently a software company president.
Once Gov. Chris Sununu (R) decided not to challenge the Senator, however, Republican chances of fielding a competitive campaign against Ms. Shaheen, who is running for her third term, greatly diminished. Also in the Republican primary is retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc. Some retirement rumors had begun swirling around seven-term Virginia Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross/ Fredericksburg) but those have been quickly extinguished. After raising $231,000 in the second quarter, Rep. Wittman yesterday announced that he is running for re-election.
The 1st District, which stretches from the outer Washington, DC suburbs to the area just east of Richmond and ending west of Williamsburg, is reliably Republican. Rep. Wittman is a heavy favorite for re-election after winning 55-45% last November in a state turning more Democratic. President Trump carried the seat 54-41%, and Mr. Wittman has averaged 59.4% in his seven congressional elections. At this point, the only announced Democratic candidate is 2018 nominee Vangie Williams. One of the surprises from the 2018 primary season was New York Democratic challenger Adem Bunkeddeko’s performance against then-six-term congressional veteran Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn). Rep. Clarke defeated Mr. Bunkeddeko, a Brooklyn Community Board Member, 53-47% after trailing for most of primary election night.
Yesterday, Mr. Bunkeddeko announced he will return for a re-match. But, he is not alone. With two minor candidates likely on the ballot, and Rep. Clarke not being caught by surprise this time, a 2020 primary challenge against her becomes considerably more difficult. The new Morning Consult large-sample national poll (7/15-21; 17,285 US registered voters; online methodology from pools of 5,000 qualified voters per day) finds former Vice President Joe Biden returning to his pre-debate support level. The MC survey finds Mr. Biden leading with 33% as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Kamala Harris (D-CA) all trail but record double-digit support, 18-14-13%, respectively.
This suggests that strong pressure upon Mr. Biden for his upcoming July 31st debate is still present even though his political situation is improving. Another poor performance will likely see him again losing his casual supporters who are apparently returning to his fold. Attorney and Fox News contributor Beth Parlato announced that she will join the Republican primary campaign against indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R-Clarence/Batavia). State Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Hamburg) is already an announced candidate. Rep. Collins, who is scheduled to face his insider trading trial in February, says he will announce whether or not he will run for re-election before the end of this year.
Democrats are in the House majority, and they are also seeing a wide lead in primary challenges to their current incumbents. Another announcement was made yesterday that likely takes the Democratic primary number to 28 as compared to the Republicans’ three. The 28 races feature candidates of some prominence are challenging the incumbent Congressman.
Yesterday, former Shelby County Democratic Party chairman and US Navy Reserve officer Corey Strong says he will challenge Tennessee Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis). The Congressman has been an anomaly in this district. A 61% African American district, Mr. Cohen, who is white, won the seat in 2006 when the African Americans split their votes among too many candidates. That pattern continued in subsequent elections until Mr. Cohen solidified his support. Now, however, he has drawn an African American opponent, and if the challenger can solidify the black vote behind him, this could become a serious campaign. The Tennessee primary isn’t until August 6th, so this contest has much time to develop. Freshman state Rep. Margaret Good (D-Sarasota) defeated state Rep. James Buchanan (R-Sarasota) in the 2018 election to win her seat in the state House. Mr. Buchanan is the son of US Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), and now Ms. Good has announced that she will challenge the elder Buchanan next year. The 16th District has performed as a reliable Republican district in its basic form since the 1992 election. Rep. Buchanan turned back a strong challenge from Democratic candidate David Shapiro in the 2018 election with a 55-45% victory. Mr. Shapiro spent over $2.5 million on the campaign.
Despite Ms. Good’s upset of the younger Buchanan last year, the elder Buchanan looks to be a tougher nut for her to crack. International online polling firm YouGov, surveying for CBS News, is projecting a very tight California race in their latest poll (7/9-18; 1,514 CA likely Democratic primary voters from a pool of 8,760 CA registered voters). The YouGov results find former Vice President Joe Biden holding just a one-point lead over home state Sen. Kamala Harris, 24-23%, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 19 and 16%, respectively. If this were the final result, all four candidates would qualify to split the state’s treasure trove of 416 first ballot delegate votes.
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