Rep. Ron DeSantis’ (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) is leaving a dead heat Republican primary in his wake as he mounts a statewide campaign for Governor. According to a new St. Pete Polls survey (7/18; 477 FL-6 likely Republican primary voters via automated response device), a virtual three-way tie exists for the Republican nomination. According to St. Pete, former state Rep. Fred Costello, retired Naval officer John Ward, and businessman and retired Army Green Beret Michael Waltz, record respective support figures of 21-20-20%, which looks to be the closest three-way contest anywhere in the national election cycle. The Florida primary is August 28th, and the outcome is obviously in doubt.
Republican Diane Harkey has countered Democrat Mike Levin’s poll released earlier this week. As we reported earlier, the Feldman Group (6/24-27; 400 CA-49 likely voters with a 200 person oversample of those who register No Party Preference) found Mr. Levin leading the race on a 44-41% count, and expanding to 49-46% when those who responded that they are leaning to one candidate or the other are added.
The new Harkey poll, from Public Opinion Strategies (7/15-16; 400 CA-49 likely voters), reports the Republican candidate claiming a similar three-point lead, 46-43%. Ms. Harkey, a member of the California Board of Equalization and hailing from Orange County, leads in the congressional district’s Orange County section 53-42%, and 44-43% in the more dominant San Diego County segment. Controversy has surrounded Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle soon after he finished first in the May 22nd Republican gubernatorial primary. In a telephone conversation with fourth place finisher Clay Tippins, one that the latter man secretly taped, Mr. Cagle admitted he supported a particular piece of legislation simply for political reasons. He believed supporting the bill in question would head off opponents’ spending against him in the Governor’s race. Once released to the media, the reaction is what one would expect.
After finishing first with a 39-26% margin over Secretary of State Brian Kemp, a new Opinion Savvy poll for the local Atlanta Fox News affiliate (7/17-18; 466 GOP likely run-off voters) sees Mr. Kemp outpacing Lt. Gov. Cagle, 55-37%, which is the biggest spread between the two candidates since primary election night. Additionally, President Trump has just officially endorsed Mr. Kemp, and Vice President Mike Pence is coming to the state to campaign for him over this weekend. The Georgia run-off election is Tuesday, July 24th. The ballot initiative that would have divided California into three separate states, and create an additional four Senate seats under a modified US state map over the long term, will not be voted upon. Though the initiative qualified for the ballot in terms of recognized petition signatures, the California State Supreme Court late this week ruled the initiative question unconstitutional. Therefore, the proposition dies before voters have their say.
The initiative would have been non-binding, anyway. Congress would have to approve any type of change in state boundaries, or any measure that creates new federal governmental entities. According to a Cleveland Plain Dealer newspaper columnist close to the subject, Consumer Financial Protection Board director Richard Cordray (D), a former Ohio Attorney General, “is certain” to run for Governor and will enter the open race no later than September. Mr. Cordray is the first and only CFPB director. The organization was the brainchild of then-Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren. President Obama nominated her as the first Board director, but she could not overcome Republican confirmation opposition. The President then chose Mr. Cordray when it became obvious that Warren would fail to be confirmed. She, of course, would rebound to run for Senate and unseated then-Sen. Scott Brown in 2012. If Mr. Cordray does return to Ohio to run, he will already face four Democratic gubernatorial opponents, including former US Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.
The Daily Kos Elections site tabulated the second quarter fundraising numbers for all competitive House races, and finds the torrid money chase continuing. Seven candidates, all incumbents, now have more than $3 million in their campaign accounts with well over three months remaining in the campaign cycle.
The top fundraiser is Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) who has $6.1 million in the bank. He is followed by New Jersey freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) who possesses $4.5 million. Next is Missouri Republican Rep. Ann Wagner ($3.4 million, but much of that was raised in anticipation of a Senate campaign that she ultimately decided against), followed by Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) with $3.2 million, Peter King (R-NY) and Ron Kind (D-WI), both with $3.1 million, and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) who has just over $3 million. The latter man will be using most of that money, however, in a state Attorney General’s race to be decided September 13th. The Marquette Law School is back with their latest poll (7/11-15; 800 WI registered voters; 305 likely Democratic primary voters; 216 likely Republican primary voters) and tested the Wisconsin Republican primary where voters will determine on August 14th who advances into the general election to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). According to the results, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), who has Gov. Scott Walker’s support along with many other state Republican leaders, has a very slight 34-32% edge over businessman Kevin Nicholson.
The results are consistent with other polls: close race with no clear leader, and the two candidates bouncing back and forth. Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election regardless of whom the Republicans nominate next month. But, the race is expected to become competitive. National Research, polling for the non-connected Outsiders PAC (7/11-14; 600 MI likely Republican primary voters), finds venture capitalist Sandy Pensler leading retired Army Ranger and manufacturing company owner John James, 28-21% with still a huge 41% undecided, as the candidates enter the final days of the Republican primary campaign. The Michigan primary will be held August 7th. The winner faces Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in the general election.
Former Congressman Ed Case (D-HI-2) may be coming back. Mr. Case was first elected in a 2002 special election, but decided on an ill-fated Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary instead of continuing his career in the House. Mr. Case has since attempted another run for the US Senate and entered a 2010 special congressional election for the 1st District. Before coming to Congress, he had lost a gubernatorial campaign.
Now a new Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey (7/6-11; 244 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters) signals that Mr. Case may be returning to the winning track. According to the data, he leads the field of five Democratic opponents with 36%. Lt. Gov. Doug Chin is second with 27%, ahead of state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (14%), and three others who fail to reach 10% support. The Hawaii primary is scheduled for August 11th. A series of four polls were released within the July 2-14 period, and both Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) find public data projecting them as the race leader. As we covered last week, the Axios Media Survey Monkey poll (6/11-7/2 (for their 13 state polls); 1,010 TN registered voters) found Rep. Blackburn leading definitively at 55-41%. This was followed by a WPA Intelligence poll (7/9-11; 551 TN likely voters) that found her ahead, but with a more pedestrian 38-35% margin.
Public Policy Polling simultaneously released their data (7/10-11; 583 TN likely voters) that saw Mr. Bredesen up 44-41%. Now, Emerson College publishes their Tennessee poll (7/11-14; 657 TN likely voters) that projects Bredesen to an even larger 43-37% advantage. Combined, this tells us that we have no clear current leader at the present time. Mr. Bredesen has the statewide name identification and positive image advantage, while Rep. Blackburn’s solid conservative base and Tennessee’s voting history since the former Governor left office are the key points in her favor. |
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