Republican Mayra Flores, a health care professional, won the open special election last night in a 51-43% spread over former Cameron County Commissioner Dan Sanchez (D) and two others. The district was left vacant when then-Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Brownsville) resigned from the House to accept a position with a legislative advocacy firm.
Ms. Flores’ win will boost the Republican count to 214 in the House, just four away from creating a new majority, but winning a full term in November is a more difficult challenge for her in the regular election. The new 34th is rated 12 points more Democratic than the seat she won last night and will face 15th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the impending general election. Mr. Gonzalez chose to seek re-election in the new South Texas 34th when Mr. Vela announced his retirement, and thus won the party primary in March. We can expect the Republican national political apparatus to pull out all of the stops in an attempt to re-elect Ms. Flores in the Autumn, thus making the 34th CD a political battleground. East Carolina University tested the Georgia electorate (6/6-9; 868 GA registered voters) and find Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker tied at 47% apiece. The Georgia race will be one of the key battleground contests in the 2022 general election cycle.
The aforementioned East Carolina University poll (see Georgia Senate above) finds Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading ex-state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 50-45%, in another race that is expected to go down to the wire. The two fought to a 50.2 - 48.8% finish in 2018.
A new Democratic Blueprint Polling survey of the Texas electorate (6/8-10; 603 TX likely general election voters) finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) re-establishing a huge polling lead. In this survey, the ballot test breaks 56-37% over former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso). Gov. Abbott is seeking a third four-year term.
The new JMC Analytics poll (6/6-9; 630 AL likely Republican runoff voters; live interview & text) posts former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt to a large 51-39% lead over US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville). Additionally, former President Trump endorsed Ms. Britt, thus coming 180 degrees in this race. Originally, he had publicly supported Rep. Brooks, only to rescind the endorsement prior to the primary.
Ms. Britt placed first in the May 24th primary, leading Rep. Brooks and third place finisher Mike Durant, 45-29-23%. The Republican runoff is scheduled for June 21st. The Amber Integrated firm tested the upcoming Sooner State Republican primary for a host of statewide races (6/6-9; 400 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text). In the US Senate special election, US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) continues to lead the Republican field, but will likely fall well short of obtaining majority support on June 28th. Should the runoff be necessary, the election date will be August 23rd.
The AI ballot test yields Rep. Mullin a 38-19% lead over former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Former EPA Director and ex-OK Attorney General Scott Pruitt heads the second tier with 6%. State Sen. Nathan Dahm (R-Broken Arrow), ex-chief of staff to retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe, Luke Holland, and dietician Jessica Jean Garrison trail with 5, 4, and 3%, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the special general, which will run concurrently with the regular general election. The ultimate winner will serve the remaining four years on Sen. Inhofe’s current term. In the regular Senate election, incumbent James Lankford (R) holds a huge 68-12% lead over pastor Jason Lahmeyer, and is headed to win outright on June 28th. Sen. Lankford then becomes a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in November. Democratic polling firm Change Research (6/3-5; 1,551 MN general election voters; online) projects a close race between Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Republican Party endorsed candidate Scott Jensen, a former state Senator. The CR polling results find Gov. Walz posting only a two-point, 42-40% edge. While Mr. Jensen is the endorsed GOP candidate, he does face minor opposition in the August 9th Republican primary.
Emerson College is reporting the results of its most recent New York statewide survey (6/9-10; 500 NY likely Democratic primary voters; 500 NY likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system, text, & online) that finds Gov. Kathy Hochul and US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) leading their respective primary election campaigns.
For the Democrats, Gov. Hochul’s advantage over US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is 63-25-11%, as the trio battles for position before the June 28th statewide primary. On the Republican side, Rep. Zeldin records 40% support, ahead of former Westchester County Executive and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino (25%), businessman Harry Wilson (20%), and former Trump White House aide Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy Giuliani (17%). Though Gov. Hochul appears strong for the general election, Republicans feel that they will be more competitive in this election year. The Amber Integrated firm also tested the Governor’s Republican primary (6/6-9; 400 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text). In this race, incumbent Kevin Stitt posts a 61-8% lead over retired police officer Mark Sherwood. Like Sen. Lankford, Gov. Stitt is poised to win re-nomination outright and then become a big favorite in the general election, probably against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D).
As we move into the Nevada nomination vote tomorrow, OH Predictive Insights released a final pre-primary survey of the Senate Republican candidate field. The poll results (6/6-7; 525 NV likely GOP primary voters; live interview & text) show former Attorney General Adam Laxalt leading disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown by a 48-34% count. Mr. Laxalt has led the entire race, and his advantage margin, though not as robust as one might have expected, should well be enough to carry the party favorite to victory tomorrow night. The new Republican nominee will then face Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the general election.
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