As predicted, state Sen. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), a US Navy veteran and nurse practitioner, topped a field of four Republican candidates with a convincing 56% of the vote. She will now oppose Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) in what promises to be one of the most hotly contested GOP challenger races in the country.
Moving to northern Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Glen Allen) politically marginal 7th CD produced a general election Republican challenger last night. Prince William County Supervisor and former law enforcement officer Yesli Vega defeated five GOP opponents on her way to a tight 29-24-20% victory spread. The Spanberger-Vega general election will be hard fought. While the Congresswoman has a slight advantage in partisan voting history, the potential turnout pattern suggests that this seat is still very much in play for a potential GOP upset. Coming on the heels of a Dan Jones & Associates survey (5/24-6/4; 810 UT registered voters) that found Sen. Mike Lee (R) holding only a 41-37% lead over Independent Evan McMullin, who has coalesced with the Democrats, a new WPA Intelligence poll puts the Senator in much better position. According to the WPA results (6/14-16; 300 UT likely general election voters) the Senator’s lead is 52-33%.
Both surveys have issues. The Dan Jones poll has a very long sampling period and is of registered and not likely voters. The WPAi survey has a sampling university of only 300 individuals, which is low for a statewide study in Utah. Federal Judge Shelly Dick, since the legislature did not produce a new congressional map that adds a second black district to the delegation by her imposed June 20th deadline, says she will draw such a map before June 29th. Currently, the Louisiana delegation stands at 5R-1D, with the one Democratic seat being majority black and stretching from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The move will likely add a Democratic district to the delegation and cost the Republicans a seat. Republicans have asked the US Supreme Court to stay Judge Dick’s ruling, but so far the high court has not taken any action.
A pair of new surveys coming from two different polling organizations simultaneously arrived at virtually the same conclusion. That is, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and challenger Mark Ronchetti (R) are already in a toss-up campaign.
Public Policy Polling, surveying for the New Mexico Political Report (6/13-14; 642 NM voters; live interview & text), finds Gov. Lujan Grisham topping Mr. Ronchetti, a former Albuquerque weatherman who was the 2020 Republican US Senate nominee, by only a 45-42% margin. The closeness is confirmed and then some from an internal Public Opinion Strategies poll that the Ronchetti campaign released. According to this study (6/11-14; 600 NM likely general election voters; live interview), Mr. Ronchetti holds a tight one-point lead, 46-45%. The New Mexico gubernatorial race is quickly becoming a key nationally watched race. Survey USA, polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (6/8-12; 650 NC likely voters; online) found former North Carolina state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley taking a 44-40% lead over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance). It is probable that we can expect to see close polls like this all the way through the general election.
Turning back to the 2020 NC Senate campaign, and just in the month of October during the Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D) campaign, 28 surveys were publicly released and the Democratic nominee led in all but four studies. Sen. Tillis would go onto win re-election with a 49-47% margin, suggesting that North Carolina aggregate polling contained a slight structural Republican undercount. A new Suffolk University survey looks to be the first poll taken after the marathon Republican primary finally settled for Dr. Mehmet Oz by a total of 951 votes of 1.345 million ballots cast. The Suffolk poll (6/10-13; 500 PA likely voters; live interview) produces interesting and mixed results. On the ballot test, Democratic nominee John Fetterman, the state’s Lt. Governor, leads Dr. Oz 46-37%, but a full 50% of the respondents said they want their vote “to change the direction President Biden is leading the nation.”
While President Biden is upside down in job approval, 39:54% favorable to unfavorable, Dr. Oz surprisingly records an equivalently bad 28:50% ratio. On the other hand, Mr. Fetterman, at home recovering from a stroke suffered from a blood clot to the heart, records a positive 45:27% favorability index. Insurance agency owner and Army veteran Sam Peters was projected the winner of the 4th District Republican primary yesterday, with a 48-41% victory spread over Nevada state Assemblywoman Annie Black (R-Mesquite). Mr. Peters now advances to challenge incumbent Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in a seat that rates D+5, but is staged to be competitive in 2022.
WPA Intelligence, polling for the Club for Growth organization just before the Nevada primary but released a day after (6/4-6; 502 NV likely voters; live interview) projects Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo taking a one-point, 48-47%, edge over Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. The poll appears to undercount the non-affiliated voters, which is the largest of the party division segments.
How emphasizing both major parties changes the ballot test is unknown, but with the Lombardo-Sisolak question breaking virtually even, it is clear that this race begins as a toss-up. On Tuesday, Sheriff Lombardo scored a 38-28-13-8% Republican primary win over retired professional boxer Joey Gilbert, ex-US Senator Dean Heller, and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee to set the general election card. The aforementioned Suffolk University poll (see Senate section above), while finding Republican nominee Mehmet Oz trailing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman well outside the polling margin of error, sees state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville) trailing Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) by only a 44-40% margin.
Gov. Tom Wolf’s job approval is a very poor 38:60% favorable to unfavorable. And, by a 29:54% ratio, the respondents believe Pennsylvania is on the wrong track. Though Sen. Mastriano is viewed by many as being extreme, the sour taste voters apparently have for the current gubernatorial administration and their poor perception of how the state is performing economically is putting the new Republican nominee in competitive position despite whatever perceived negative baggage he might be carrying. The first of six Republican House members who are seeking re-election and voted to impeach former President Trump went down to defeat last night. South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) lost outright to Mr. Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet). Mr. Fry defeated Rep. Rice, 51-24%, with the remaining 25% being split among the other five candidates.
Elsewhere, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) defeated Republican primary challenger and 2018 congressional nominee Katie Arrington by a close 53-45% that proved a defeat for a Trump endorsed candidate. Fourth District Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville), in a race that Mr. Trump did not affect, was also renominated but only by a 52.7% vote share opposite three challengers. Statewide, both Republican incumbents, Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster, were easily re-nominated. Gov. McMaster will now face former Congressman Joe Cunningham (D), who won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination outright with 56.5% of the vote, while the Democratic Senate candidates fell into a tight three-way finish. Two of the contenders will advance to a runoff election on June 28th, presumably author Catherine Bruce and state Rep. Krystle Matthews (D-Ladson). |
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