Officials from the Alaska Division of Elections, grappling with the new top-four qualifying system, has changed their initial ruling after finalist Al Gross (I/D), announced earlier this week that he was ending his campaign. The Division officials initially were leaning toward placing the fifth place finisher, Republican Tara Sweeney, into the group of four finalists, but they have since reversed themselves.
The final ruling does not add a replacement for Dr. Gross, meaning that only former Governor Sarah Palin, businessman Nick Begich, III (R), and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) will advance into the special general election scheduled for August 16th. Ms. Sweeney followed with an announcement that she will not challenge the Elections Division’s ruling. The next in a series of paired incumbent elections is scheduled in Illinois when two sets of paired incumbents will square off in the June 28th primary election. In the downstate Republican primary, Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) and Mary Miller (R-Oakland) are battling for the new gerrymandered 15th District, one of only three Land of Lincoln seats that will likely send a Republican to the House. This week, we see two polls released with conflicting conclusions.
The Victory Geek firm, polling for the Illinoize political blog (6/15-19; 515 IL-15 respondents; interactive voice response system), finds Rep. Davis leading Rep. Miller, 38-35%. When forcing the undecideds to make a choice, the full universe breaks for Mr. Davis, 51-49%. The bad news for him is when voters are informed that former President Trump has endorsed Miller. The preference factor then switches to 47-39% in favor of Ms. Miller. The Miller campaign also released their internal Cygnal firm survey conducted during the same time period (6/18-19; 420 IL-15 likely Republican primary voters; peer-to-peer text) that gave the Congresswoman a 45-40% edge over Mr. Davis. The other paired incumbent election features a Chicago suburban Democratic pairing between Reps. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and Marie Newman (D-La Grange). An Expedition Strategies survey of the MN-1 special election (6/6-9; 400 MN-1 likely special election voters; live interview) scheduled for August 9th finds the two party nominees, Republican former state Representative Brad Finstad and ex-Hormel corporation CEO Jeff Ettinger (D) falling into a virtual tie. The ballot test gives Mr. Finstad a 48-47% edge in a district that is no stranger to close elections. The winning percentage in the last three congressional elections was 48.6%, 50.1%, and 50.3% in 2020, 2018, and 2016. The seat is in special election because incumbent Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) passed away in February.
In terms of what the survey respondents perceive as the most important issue, the “economy and cost of living” registered 27%, “guns” was second with a 12% mention, and “election integrity” was third with 10%. Interestingly, the healthcare issue, which now includes Covid, registered as the most important issue from only 6% of the respondents. Mr. Ettinger scored a 53-40% advantage on preferring a candidate with experience running a business as compared to Mr. Finstad’s career in government and rural policy making. A Triton Polling & Research survey conducted for the Freedom Council USA (6/16-20; 505 current NY-19 registered voters; interactive voice response system) finds Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) leading Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan (D) by a large 52-38% clip in the special election race to replace resigned US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D). The Congressman left the House to accept his appointment as Lt. Governor.
A Molinaro victory would mean another special election GOP conversion of a Democratic seat as we saw in Texas on June 14th when Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez and two minor candidates to win the seat from which Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Brownsville) resigned. If the GOP is successful in NY-19, and holds their other 2022 special elections in AK-AL, MN-1, NE-1, and NY-23, the conference will increase to 215 members, just three away from majority status. The tight Democratic primary and runoff campaign featuring veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and attorney and 2020 congressional candidate Jessica Cisneros has finally come to an official end. The Texas Secretary of State has reported the final results of the runoff recount. Counting the ballots again actually increased Mr. Cuellar’s lead by eight votes. The final counts shows a 22,901 to 22,612 margin in favor of Rep. Cuellar, a spread of 289 votes, or 50.3% of the runoff electorate.
Rep. Cuellar now advances into a general election against former Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) staff member Cassy Garcia. This could become a competitive general election in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7. Though Ms. Garcia will have the ability to run a credible campaign, Rep. Cuellar is now viewed as the favorite to win a 10th term. A surprising poll released earlier in June (Global Strategy Group; 6/8-13; 600 FL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) found state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried pulling to within a 38-34% margin against US Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg). Now, a new St. Pete Polls survey (6/16-17; 1,007 FL likely Democratic primary voters; interactive voice response system) posts the latter man back to a more substantial lead, 49-24%. The Florida primary is scheduled for August 23rd. The Democratic winner will then challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
As the post-primary polling unanimously foretold, Katie Britt, the former president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama organization and ex-chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R), won the Republican US Senate nomination with a landslide 63-37% margin over Alabama US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) in last night’s runoff election.
Ms. Britt’s victory was complete in that she carried 66 of Alabama’s 67 counties en route to claiming the party nomination, and a veritable ticket to the US Senate. She now faces pastor Will Boyd who won the Democratic nomination outright on May 24th in what will prove to be a perfunctory general election in this safely Republican state. Madison County Commission chairman Dale Strong (R) defeated former Deputy Army Secretary Casey Wardynski with just over 63% of the Republican runoff vote. Like Ms. Britt, Mr. Strong has punched his ticket to Washington with last night’s victory.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AL-5 as R+32, leaving little doubt that Mr. Strong is now the prohibitive favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Kathy Warner-Stanton who won her party’s nomination outright in the regular primary contest. Yesterday, surgeon Al Gross, who was the 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) but running as an Independent in the US House special election, decided to end his campaign. Dr. Gross had qualified for the four-candidate runoff with his third place finish in the special primary on June 11th. He simply said he had “great hope for Alaska” in his departing statement but did not offer a particular reason for making the decision to prematurely end his campaign.
It appears the fifth place finisher, Republican Tara Sweeney a former Deputy Assistant Secretary in the US Department of Interior will move into the fourth position, but even officials at the Board of Elections could not confidently confirm that such is the procedure. Former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin qualified in first position, followed consecutively by businessman Nick Begich, III (R), Dr. Gross, and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D). In his statement, Dr. Gross endorsed both Peltola and Sweeney saying “they are two outstanding Native women who will serve our state well.” The special general election is August 16th. Georgia proved another tough night for former President Donald Trump, as his two key candidates in House runoff races, Jake Evans in created open District 6 and Vernon Jones in the open 10th CD, both went down in landslide proportions. These results, added to Trump candidates David Perdue and Rep. Hice losing the Governor and Secretary of State’s races in the May 24th primary, suggests that the Peach State will likely prove to be Mr. Trump’s poorest endorsement state.
Dr. Rich McCormick, a retired Navy physician who was the 7th District GOP nominee in 2020, scored a 67% win over Mr. Evans. In District 10, businessman Mike Collins, a trucking company owner and son of the late former Congressman Mac Collins, recorded almost 75% of the runoff vote. |
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