The Alaska Republican Party took an official stand in the special election that is scheduled for June 11th, with the succeeding four-person runoff on the political calendar for August 16th. The AK GOP endorsed software executive Nick Begich III, the grandson of the late former Congressman Nick Begich (D), and nephew of ex-Democratic US Senator Mark Begich.
The Alaska Republican State Central Committee took the action even though former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin is also in the huge field of 48 candidates all vying to replace the late Congressman Don Young (R). Earlier in the week, Ms. Palin’s former in-laws, Jim and Faye Palin, also publicly announced they are backing Mr. Begich. One way the party justified their endorsement is to explain that Mr. Begich was the only one of the 13 GOP contenders to follow the party procedure for requesting formal support. On Friday, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) took the final step toward adopting the new Florida congressional plan by signing the bill that the legislature passed. Immediately, several groups, the League of Women Voters of Florida, Black Voters Matter Capacity Building Institute, Equal Ground Education Fund, and Florida Rising Together, along with several individuals filed suit in state court to overturn the map. They claim the new draw violates the “Fair Districts” amendment to the Florida Constitution that voters passed in 2010, which pertains to gerrymandering and minority representation. It is likely the Florida state Supreme Court will ultimately decide the matter.
A five-judge New York Appellate Division panel upheld a lower court ruling that the new congressional map violates the New York constitution as an illegal partisan gerrymander. The congressional plan would likely elect 22 Democrats and 4 Republicans. The current map divides 19D-8R. New York lost one congressional district in national reapportionment.
Democratic leaders are already saying they will appeal to the state’s highest court, the New York Court of Appeals. Resolution of the Empire State map situation could be key to the impending midterm congressional election cycle. Under New York procedure, the map still stands because it has not yet been fully decided in the appeals process. A new internal Tarrance Group survey for Gov. Kay Ivey’s (R) re-election campaign (4/18-20; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds the incumbent in position to win re-nomination outright in the May 24th Republican primary election. Failing to reach the 50% support mark would send the nomination battle into a secondary June 21st runoff election between the top two finishers.
The Tarrance results project Gov. Ivey holding a 57% preference figure. Following are former US Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard with 14% and businessman Tim James, son of former Alabama Governor Fob James, posting 12% support. The Republican nomination battle in the Yellowhammer State is tantamount to winning re-election in November. The first quarter 2022 fundraising figures are public, and it appears the aggregate in-cycle Senate incumbents and challengers raised a total exceeding $150 million just for the 12-week period. The top two overall fundraisers for the 2022 cycle are again Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who has obtained more than $44 million for his first re-election effort, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) who has pulled in over $39 million.
Looking at the size of each man’s state, it is actually Sen. Kelly who has raised the most when dividing the two states into population segments. Dividing by the number of congressional districts, Sen. Kelly has brought in an amount equivalent to $4.3 million per each of Arizona’s nine CDs. Sen. Warnock has obtained an average $3.2 million for each of Georgia’s 14 seats. Yesterday, the Tennessee Republican Party officially disqualified three candidates from the new Congressional District 5 ballot because they did not meet the state imposed requirement of voting in three of the last four statewide elections. The three are former State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus, film producer Robby Starbuck, and businessman Baxter Lee. It will be interesting to see if any or all of the group files a lawsuit in federal court. Their success chances are high because the US Constitution bars states from imposing more requirements to run for federal office than are outlined in the country’s foundation document of principles.
The Florida congressional map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is proposing passed the Florida state Senate yesterday and now heads to the House of Representatives. The body is expected to address and pass the map on Friday. Once Gov. DeSantis signs the legislation, we will see an immediate lawsuit filed over the re-drawing of District 5, (Rep. Al Lawson; D-Tallahassee) which is currently a majority minority district.
With the courts back logged, it appears any federal challenge won’t likely move through the process until next year. The Florida state Supreme Court would likely hear any state challenge. Should the Florida high court uphold the map, it would be virtually assured that these will be the districts for the 2022 election. Federal action next year, however, could force a re-draw for subsequent election years. Major party candidate filing closed in the Wolverine State Tuesday night, and no less than ten Republicans filed in an attempt to oppose Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in November. The leading GOP contender appears to be former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, but he will receive opposition at least from chiropractor and well-known anti-lockdown activist Garrett Soldano, former Berrien County Commissioner and ex-state Police Captain Mike Brown, and online talk show host Tudor Dixon. The general election will be competitive.
We will also see November competition in all 13 of the state’s congressional districts. In two contests, the major party general election pairings are already set. First District US Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Watersmeet/Upper Peninsula) must subdue a challenge from Marquette County Medical Director Bob Lorinser. What began as an incumbent pairing between Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), has already evolved into a general election match-up. Mr. Upton recently announcing his retirement and state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo) deciding to exit the congressional race and seek re-election to his current position has surprisingly left Rep. Huizenga unopposed for re-nomination in the new 4th CD. His general election opponent will be retail banker Joseph Alfonso (D) in a race that should offer only minimal competition for the six-term incumbent. The remaining 11 districts all have primary competition. Those contests will be settled in the August 2nd Michigan primary. The congressional lineup features one incumbent pairing, the District 11 contest between Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills) and Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township), and two open seats, one in the Oakland and Macomb Counties new 10th District, and the other in downtown Detroit’s 13th CD. Michigan promises to be one of the more active congressional states in the general election. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman not only enjoys strong polling leads for the upcoming May 17th Pennsylvania US Senate primary, but he has an equally significant advantage in fundraising. According to the recently released 1st quarter 2022 campaign finance reports for the period ending March 31st, Mr. Fetterman has raised just over $15 million for the race without any self-contribution. His next closest rival, US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) reported $5.7 million in receipts for the campaign.
Mr. Fetterman also compares well with the Republicans. The two GOP leaders, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick and television doctor Mehmet Oz, have equivalent sums in their campaign treasuries compared to the Democratic leader, but more than 2/3 of their aggregate total is self-funded. Mr. McCormick reported $11.3 million in receipts, but with self-funding in the form of loans totaling just under $7 million. Dr. Oz posted over $13.4 million in receipts, but with a self-funding figure of $11.05 million. Combined, all of the Democratic candidates have raised over $22 million while the Republicans report $34.4 million, but with a whopping $23.2 million coming from the candidates, themselves. The University of Massachusetts at Lowell just released a statewide survey of the Democratic gubernatorial primary (4/2-11; 800 MA likely Democratic primary voters) that posted state Attorney General Maura Healey to a powerhouse 62-17% lead over Democratic primary rival, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston). Gov. Charlie Baker (R), who this poll finds with a 78% approval rating, is not seeking a third term. Therefore, Democrats have an open door to reclaiming the inside track for the general election, hence the importance of winning the party primary.
The Massachusetts nomination election isn’t until September 6th, so this race has much time to gel, but Ms. Healey clearly has established herself as the early race leader. |
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