The Data for Progress research organization tested the North Texas special congressional election scheduled for May 1st (4/5-12; 344 TX-6 likely special election voters; text and web panel response) and found Susan Wright (R), widow of Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington), leading the pack of 23 candidates with 22% of the vote. In second place is 2018 congressional nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez (D) with 16% as state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) trails with 13%. All others have 10% or less.
If Ms. Wright and Ms. Sanchez advance, the early ballot test gives the former a ten-point lead, 53-43%. In 2020, Rep. Wright was re-elected with a 53-44% margin. Once the primary vote canvass is complete and a runoff is officially necessitated, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the secondary vote likely for late June. Reality TV star and Olympic Gold Medal winner Caitlin Jenner announced that she will enter the California gubernatorial recall election if the petition signatures to force such a vote are verified. It appears the proponents have unofficially cleared the signature hurdle, turning in well over 40% more than necessary to force Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to stand for a recall election.
Once the vote is scheduled, likely in October or November of this year, California voters will first choose whether to recall him from office. If they do, then candidates such as Ms. Jenner will be voted upon within the same election framework. Currently announced as candidates are 2018 gubernatorial finalist John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), and ex-US Rep. Doug Ose (R-Sacramento). Another 36 minor candidates have also declared their intention to run. It is unclear at this point if the Jenner candidacy will evolve into a serious run or a publicity stunt. Appointed California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has earned endorsements of 40 of the state’s 42 US House members and senior Senator Dianne Feinstein (D). The two federal office holders who have not endorsed are Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) and Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles). Mr. Khanna is reportedly still deciding whether to run for the Senate himself, while Rep. Waters’ spokesperson indicated that the Congresswoman would “soon” be endorsing Sen. Padilla.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed Mr. Padilla, then California’s Secretary of State, to replace Sen. Kamala Harris after she resigned the office to become Vice President. Prior to him winning the Secretary of State’s office, Mr. Padilla served in the California state Senate and on the Los Angeles City Council. Pressure is intensifying on University of Georgia former football star Herschel Walker (R) to run for the Senate next year. Both Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and former US Ambassador Randy Evans are indicating they would step aside for Mr. Walker if he were to enter the Senate race. Should he not, both stated they would consider becoming candidates themselves. For his part, Mr. Walker is non-committal. One problem: Walker lives in Texas.
Mr. Walker won the Heisman Trophy while playing for the University of Georgia in 1982 and is one of the school’s most celebrated former players. He played in the NFL from 1986 through 1997 for the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Dallas again before retiring. He was born in Wrightsville, GA, a community of approximately 2,500 people about 50 miles east of Macon. He first attracted attention to his football skills while playing for Johnson County High School in Wrightsville. Former Westchester County Executive and 2014 New York Republican gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino, saying he would be “the adult in the room,” announced yesterday that he will again run for Governor next year. In 2014, a Republican landslide year nationally, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) defeated Mr. Astorino, 53-39%.
Also in the Republican race is US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/Long Island), and Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove/Long Island) is considering challenging Gov. Cuomo in the Democratic primary if the incumbent avoids impeachment and chooses to seek re-election. On a straight party line vote of 216-208 with two Democrats and four Republicans not voting, the House passed HR 51 that would grant statehood to the District of Columbia. The bill now must overcome a filibuster in the Senate before going to President Biden’s desk for signature. The House vote saw no member of either party breaking ranks.
A state can be added to the Union through the normal legislative process. Under the Constitution no new state can form, however, from territory currently existing within a state. Furthermore, no current states may merge to become a different state. Former Defense Department official Andrew McCarthy (R) says he will enter the open 23rd District race to replace retiring Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning). Mr. McCarthy said he would have challenged Rep. Reed in the Republican primary even if the Congressman had decided to seek re-election, so his plan was always to run for the House in 2022. The 23rd CD, however, is undoubtedly on the short list to be eliminated since reapportionment will cost New York at least one congressional seat. The 23rd is the least populated of the state’s 27 current congressional districts.
On the heels of state Senator Bob Peterson (R-Fayette County) announcing that that he will enter the special election to fill the soon-to-be vacant 15th Congressional District seat once Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) leaves the House on May 16th, state Rep. Brian Stewart (R-Ashville) followed with his own announcement of candidacy. For the Democrats, Athens Mayor Steve Patterson confirms that he is considering entering the special election campaign.
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will schedule the special election once the seat officially becomes vacant. It is likely the calendar will follow the same schedule as the 11th District vacancy, which means a partisan primary on August 3rd and the special general November 2nd. 2020 Washington Republican gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp, the former police chief of Republic, WA, which is not in the 4th Congressional District, announced that he will challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside/Yakima) in the 2022 jungle primary. Also in the race is state Rep. Brad Klippert (R-Kennewick), and businessman Jerrod Sessler (R). Rep. Klippert not reporting any money raised for the campaign in the first quarter of 2021 may have spurred Mr. Culp into becoming and active candidate.
Washington has a jungle primary system, so it is possible that two Republicans could advance into the general election. Mr. Culp lost the Governor’s race to incumbent Jay Inslee (D) 56-43%, but he did carry the 4th District. Rep. Newhouse is one of ten Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching ex-President Donald Trump after the January 6th US Capitol insurrection. Nine of the ten already have 2022 Republican opposition Democratic former Congressman Joe Cunningham, who lost his Charleston anchored seat after just one term, has filed documents to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in hopes of challenging Gov. Henry McMaster (R) next year. Mr. Cunningham has yet to make a public announcement, but the filing clearly suggests that he is planning on making the race.
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